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Core Insights - The WTO's latest assessment reveals a contradictory and uncertain global trade landscape, with strong growth driven by panic buying ahead of anticipated tariff increases, raising questions about sustainability [1][3] - The global goods trade barometer index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5 in June, marking the highest level since August 2021, indicating active trade above the normal level [1] Group 1 - The strong growth in trade at the beginning of the year is largely attributed to importers making large-scale purchases in anticipation of potential U.S. tariff hikes, leading to a temporary "stockpiling trend" [3] - The WTO warns that the current trade environment remains fragile, with significant uncertainties that could lead to a broader trade recession if U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" are fully implemented [3] Group 2 - Among the indicators that make up the trade barometer index, export orders are the only category showing negative growth, with the "new export orders index" dropping to 97.9, indicating a contraction [3] - The report suggests that the strong growth in trade volumes observed in early 2025 may be a result of importers increasing purchases to avoid future costs, which could lead to a slowdown in trade growth later in the year as sellers reduce inventory [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Energy and Chemical Industry: The investment rating for both soda ash and glass is "Bearish" [1][2] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market for soda ash and glass is currently under pressure. Soda ash production and inventory levels, along with glass production and inventory trends, combined with macro - economic factors and weak downstream demand, contribute to the bearish outlook. Traders are advised to short after significant rebounds [1][2] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The main contract of soda ash futures has completed the roll - over to SA2509. Yesterday, the futures price fluctuated, with the settlement price down 1 point (0.07%), and an increase in positions by 59,409 lots, closing at 1358, below the 60 - day moving average. The night session closed slightly lower at 1347 [1] - **Important Information**: US tariff policy fluctuations affect the market, causing international market turmoil. The spot market is stable. This week, soda ash production was 755,600 tons, a 2.42% increase from the previous week. As of April 17, 2025, the total domestic soda ash inventory was 1.7113 million tons, a 0.19% decrease from Monday [1] - **Market Logic**: Soda ash plants are operating normally with no maintenance plans. Production and operating rates remain high, while downstream demand is lackluster, resulting in a weak short - term market [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Short after a significant rebound. The support level for the SA2509 contract is 1250, and the first and second resistance levels are 1480 and 1650 respectively [1] Glass - **Market Performance**: The main contract of glass futures has switched to FG2509. Yesterday, the futures price declined, with the settlement price down 18 points (1.52%), and an increase in positions by 114,870 lots, closing at 1166, below the 60 - day moving average. The night session closed sharply lower at 1137, hitting a new low [2] - **Important Information**: US tariff policy impacts the market. The spot price of float glass yesterday was 1277 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. As of April 17, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 158,500 tons, unchanged from the 10th. This week's production was 1.1093 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and 8.98% lower than the same period last year. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 65.078 million weight boxes, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period [2] - **Market Logic**: Sales in some areas are mediocre, especially in the Shahe region. Traders are cautious, and downstream procurement is mainly for immediate needs. Short - term supply and demand are stable, with a slight reduction in inventory [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Short after a significant rebound. The support level for the FG2509 contract is 1000 - 1050, and the resistance levels are 1350 and 1520 [2]