1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report offers short - term trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. These forecasts are influenced by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic policies [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Facing disturbances from tariff issues, with a trend strength of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][5][9]. - **Silver**: In a high - level oscillation, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][5][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously increasing, putting pressure on prices. The trend strength is 0, showing a neutral outlook [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Operating within a range, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][14]. - **Lead**: Showing a mid - term upward trend, with a trend strength of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][19][23]. - **Aluminum**: The price center is moving up. Aluminum has a trend strength of 0, alumina has a trend strength of 1, and casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24][26]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between macro and fundamental factors, resulting in an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][27][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and macro - expectations, leading to an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the number of warehouse receipts is relatively small. The oscillating pattern may continue, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][37][40]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying market fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, resulting in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Due to sector sentiment resonance, they are in a relatively strong oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][44][48]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Cost expectations may rise, leading to a relatively strong oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][50][53]. - **Coke**: Oscillating with an upward bias, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][55][58]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, oscillating with an upward bias, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][56][58]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the market is stabilizing with oscillations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][60][63]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamental upside is limited [2][62]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is insufficient speculation on US soybean weather, lacking upward drivers [2][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Waiting for the USDA report, with a rebound and oscillation trend [2][64]. - **Soybean**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is oscillating [2][64]. - **Corn**: Undergoing oscillating adjustments [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The expectation of tight old - crop inventory continues to support futures prices [2][68]. - **Egg**: As the peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the expected difference [2][70]. - **Live Pig**: Spot sentiment is weakening, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices [2][71]. - **Peanut**: There is support at the lower level [4].

| | | | | | 原油 ★☆★ 燃料油 女女女 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ 沥青 女女女 液化石油气 ★☆☆ 能源日报 2025年07月08日 高明宇 首席分析师 F0302201 Z0012038 季祖智 中级分析师 F3063857 Z0016599 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 【原油】昨日国际油价低开高走,SC08合约日内涨1.88%。我们认为OPEC+的快速增产政策对三季度的油价冲击 暂时有限，一方面考虑到部分产油国的实际产量已远高于目标产量且同步存在减产补偿计划的约束，OPEG+实际 月度增产量均小于产量目标的上调幅度；另一方面，三季度为汽油、航煤需求的季节性旺季，本轮增产在夏季 尚可得到需求端较好的承接。而度过三季度旺季之后，若美国的对等关税政策依然延续,OPEC+产量的国归将对 基本面产生更直接的利空压力,在中东地缘局势保持可控的情景下油价重心面临进一步下移。豁免期延续至8月 1日的美国对等关税最终博弈结果或不高于4月初水平，原油短期仍持三季度底部抬升、震荡偏强的判断。 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【星级说明】红色 ...

此外，由于OPEC+超预期增产，供应端显得愈发宽松，尤其是到今年下半年，预计原油供应过剩将会 扩大。显然，这一预期面临的风险在于OPEC+再次改变其政策，需要看到那些长期超额生产的成员国 开始遵守配额目标。据报道，哈萨克斯坦正在考虑应对措施以达到配额目标。ING预计，OPEC+在第三 季度将继续执行积极增产政策，与5、6月宣布的增产计划一致。 美国石油协会公布的数据较为乐观。上周，美国原油库存减少了449万桶，而WTI原油交割枢纽库欣的 库存减少了85.4万桶。成品油方面，汽油库存下降了197万桶，馏分油库存增加了224万桶。 荷兰国际集团(ING)发布研报指出，美国与中国经贸高层将在本周末举行会谈的消息推动了油价的反 弹。ING表示，谈判将是贸易紧张局势可能缓和的一个迹象，然而，尽管谈判将有助于改善原油市场的 情绪，但真正提振需求前景还需在降低关税方面取得实质性进展。 在其他大宗商品方面，欧洲基准荷兰TTF天然气期货价格在5月6月上涨了5.51%，为3月中旬以来的最大 单日涨幅。这一涨幅受欧盟计划在2027年底前逐步停止从俄罗斯进口天然气的举措的推动。欧盟的相关 举措包括到2027年底逐步取消长期天然气合同 ...