1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of crude oil continues to be strong due to a decrease in Russian crude oil exports and rising VLCC freight rates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. The chemical industry shows a demand for stopping the decline and stabilizing under the situation of crude oil fluctuations [2][3]. - The chemical products in the industry have different trends. Some products may stop falling and stabilize, while others continue to be under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. API data shows an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, but the reduction in refined oil inventories and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 2026, but the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation is difficult to change, so the price fluctuates [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: Affected by the crude oil market, most chemical products are in a state of shock. Some products are facing cost and supply - demand pressures, while others have certain profit supports [3][4]. 3.2 Variety Analysis - **Asphalt**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, the asphalt futures price lacks support. The high - valued premium is starting to decline, and it is expected that the absolute price is over - valued and the monthly spread may decline [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil weakens, the fuel oil price is weak. Although the supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease in November, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. Facing factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, it has a low valuation and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [9][10]. - **PX**: The supply has not decreased, and there is support for profits under the situation of strong supply and demand. It is expected to return to the cost and fundamental pricing logic in the short - term and maintain range consolidation [11]. - **PTA**: The market is waiting and watching, and there is a bottom - support for short - term profits. It is expected that the price will fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment, and there is a weakening expectation in the medium - term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is running weakly. The pure benzene - naphtha price spread is at a low level in recent years, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. Although there are some supply disturbances, the upward drive is still insufficient [11][12]. - **Styrene**: There is still a risk of inventory over - filling, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The cost - side has some disturbances, but it does not reverse the situation, and the follow - up rhythm depends on crude oil [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Under the resonance of cost and fundamentals, it is in a downward trend, and the medium - term supply surplus problem is difficult to solve. The price is under pressure in the short - term [15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream factories are digesting previous stockpiles, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed to a certain extent. The price follows the cost and fluctuates weakly [19][20]. - **Bottle Chip**: Affected by cost, the supply - demand drive is limited. The price follows the raw materials, and the support for the processing fee below is enhanced [21]. - **Methanol**: After continuous decline, it is not advisable to chase short positions. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and there is still value in going long at a low level [23][26]. - **Urea**: There is a co - existence of high - inventory suppression and cost support. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the information of the Nanjing Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference [24]. - **Plastic**: The OPEC+ production increase is cautious. Considering the fundamentals and profit situation, it is expected to fluctuate within a range [27][28]. - **PP**: There is still some support on the cost side. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the change and sustainability of maintenance [28][29]. - **PL**: The improvement in downstream transactions is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [29]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the cost of integrated production in the northwest may support the market [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the cost is moving up. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the trading strategy is to go short on rallies [31]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring**: The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [33][34][35]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists various chemicals such as methanol, urea, etc., specific content is not fully presented in the provided text. - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline. The energy index also shows a downward trend, with a daily decline of 1.07%, a 5 - day decline of 0.25%, a 1 - month decline of 5.01%, and a decline of 5.08% since the beginning of the year [274][276].

Core Insights - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates a projected decrease of 235 yuan/ton, with an increase in the expected drop by 5 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, translating to a decrease of 0.18-0.21 yuan per liter, exceeding the downward threshold [1][4] - The oil price is expected to continue its downward trend, with the possibility of exceeding a 300 yuan/ton decrease as the adjustment date approaches [4] Oil Market Performance - Recent performance of crude oil shows a decline, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down by 0.94% to $61.99 per barrel and Brent crude down by 0.92% to $65.92 per barrel [4] - The drop in oil prices is attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and a reduction in expectations for supply disruptions, alongside OPEC+'s production increase policy [4] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory reported a decrease of approximately 2.4 million barrels, surpassing the expected reduction of 1.2 million barrels, which limited the decline in oil prices [4] Upcoming Data and Market Sentiment - The market is awaiting further data releases, including the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory and Eurozone inflation data, which could influence oil price movements [4] - The sentiment in the market remains cautious, with significant fluctuations expected in oil prices as new data is released [4] Regional Fuel Prices - The current fuel prices across various regions in China are as follows: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 7.26 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.73 yuan, 0 diesel at 6.91 yuan [5] - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 7.28 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.89 yuan, 0 diesel at 6.91 yuan [6] - Hainan: 92 gasoline at 8.37 yuan, 95 gasoline at 8.89 yuan, 0 diesel at 6.99 yuan [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report offers short - term trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. These forecasts are influenced by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic policies [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Facing disturbances from tariff issues, with a trend strength of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][5][9]. - **Silver**: In a high - level oscillation, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][5][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously increasing, putting pressure on prices. The trend strength is 0, showing a neutral outlook [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Operating within a range, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][14]. - **Lead**: Showing a mid - term upward trend, with a trend strength of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][19][23]. - **Aluminum**: The price center is moving up. Aluminum has a trend strength of 0, alumina has a trend strength of 1, and casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24][26]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between macro and fundamental factors, resulting in an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][27][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and macro - expectations, leading to an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the number of warehouse receipts is relatively small. The oscillating pattern may continue, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][37][40]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying market fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, resulting in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Due to sector sentiment resonance, they are in a relatively strong oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][44][48]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Cost expectations may rise, leading to a relatively strong oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][50][53]. - **Coke**: Oscillating with an upward bias, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][55][58]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, oscillating with an upward bias, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][56][58]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the market is stabilizing with oscillations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][60][63]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamental upside is limited [2][62]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is insufficient speculation on US soybean weather, lacking upward drivers [2][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Waiting for the USDA report, with a rebound and oscillation trend [2][64]. - **Soybean**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is oscillating [2][64]. - **Corn**: Undergoing oscillating adjustments [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The expectation of tight old - crop inventory continues to support futures prices [2][68]. - **Egg**: As the peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the expected difference [2][70]. - **Live Pig**: Spot sentiment is weakening, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices [2][71]. - **Peanut**: There is support at the lower level [4].

| | | | | | 原油 ★☆★ 燃料油 女女女 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ 沥青 女女女 液化石油气 ★☆☆ 能源日报 2025年07月08日 高明宇 首席分析师 F0302201 Z0012038 季祖智 中级分析师 F3063857 Z0016599 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 【原油】昨日国际油价低开高走,SC08合约日内涨1.88%。我们认为OPEC+的快速增产政策对三季度的油价冲击 暂时有限，一方面考虑到部分产油国的实际产量已远高于目标产量且同步存在减产补偿计划的约束，OPEG+实际 月度增产量均小于产量目标的上调幅度；另一方面，三季度为汽油、航煤需求的季节性旺季，本轮增产在夏季 尚可得到需求端较好的承接。而度过三季度旺季之后，若美国的对等关税政策依然延续,OPEC+产量的国归将对 基本面产生更直接的利空压力,在中东地缘局势保持可控的情景下油价重心面临进一步下移。豁免期延续至8月 1日的美国对等关税最终博弈结果或不高于4月初水平，原油短期仍持三季度底部抬升、震荡偏强的判断。 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【星级说明】红色 ...

此外，由于OPEC+超预期增产，供应端显得愈发宽松，尤其是到今年下半年，预计原油供应过剩将会 扩大。显然，这一预期面临的风险在于OPEC+再次改变其政策，需要看到那些长期超额生产的成员国 开始遵守配额目标。据报道，哈萨克斯坦正在考虑应对措施以达到配额目标。ING预计，OPEC+在第三 季度将继续执行积极增产政策，与5、6月宣布的增产计划一致。 美国石油协会公布的数据较为乐观。上周，美国原油库存减少了449万桶，而WTI原油交割枢纽库欣的 库存减少了85.4万桶。成品油方面，汽油库存下降了197万桶，馏分油库存增加了224万桶。 荷兰国际集团(ING)发布研报指出，美国与中国经贸高层将在本周末举行会谈的消息推动了油价的反 弹。ING表示，谈判将是贸易紧张局势可能缓和的一个迹象，然而，尽管谈判将有助于改善原油市场的 情绪，但真正提振需求前景还需在降低关税方面取得实质性进展。 在其他大宗商品方面，欧洲基准荷兰TTF天然气期货价格在5月6月上涨了5.51%，为3月中旬以来的最大 单日涨幅。这一涨幅受欧盟计划在2027年底前逐步停止从俄罗斯进口天然气的举措的推动。欧盟的相关 举措包括到2027年底逐步取消长期天然气合同 ...