1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of crude oil continues to be strong due to a decrease in Russian crude oil exports and rising VLCC freight rates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. The chemical industry shows a demand for stopping the decline and stabilizing under the situation of crude oil fluctuations [2][3]. - The chemical products in the industry have different trends. Some products may stop falling and stabilize, while others continue to be under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. API data shows an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, but the reduction in refined oil inventories and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 2026, but the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation is difficult to change, so the price fluctuates [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: Affected by the crude oil market, most chemical products are in a state of shock. Some products are facing cost and supply - demand pressures, while others have certain profit supports [3][4]. 3.2 Variety Analysis - **Asphalt**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, the asphalt futures price lacks support. The high - valued premium is starting to decline, and it is expected that the absolute price is over - valued and the monthly spread may decline [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil weakens, the fuel oil price is weak. Although the supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease in November, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. Facing factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, it has a low valuation and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [9][10]. - **PX**: The supply has not decreased, and there is support for profits under the situation of strong supply and demand. It is expected to return to the cost and fundamental pricing logic in the short - term and maintain range consolidation [11]. - **PTA**: The market is waiting and watching, and there is a bottom - support for short - term profits. It is expected that the price will fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment, and there is a weakening expectation in the medium - term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is running weakly. The pure benzene - naphtha price spread is at a low level in recent years, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. Although there are some supply disturbances, the upward drive is still insufficient [11][12]. - **Styrene**: There is still a risk of inventory over - filling, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The cost - side has some disturbances, but it does not reverse the situation, and the follow - up rhythm depends on crude oil [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Under the resonance of cost and fundamentals, it is in a downward trend, and the medium - term supply surplus problem is difficult to solve. The price is under pressure in the short - term [15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream factories are digesting previous stockpiles, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed to a certain extent. The price follows the cost and fluctuates weakly [19][20]. - **Bottle Chip**: Affected by cost, the supply - demand drive is limited. The price follows the raw materials, and the support for the processing fee below is enhanced [21]. - **Methanol**: After continuous decline, it is not advisable to chase short positions. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and there is still value in going long at a low level [23][26]. - **Urea**: There is a co - existence of high - inventory suppression and cost support. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the information of the Nanjing Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference [24]. - **Plastic**: The OPEC+ production increase is cautious. Considering the fundamentals and profit situation, it is expected to fluctuate within a range [27][28]. - **PP**: There is still some support on the cost side. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the change and sustainability of maintenance [28][29]. - **PL**: The improvement in downstream transactions is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [29]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the cost of integrated production in the northwest may support the market [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the cost is moving up. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the trading strategy is to go short on rallies [31]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring**: The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [33][34][35]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists various chemicals such as methanol, urea, etc., specific content is not fully presented in the provided text. - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline. The energy index also shows a downward trend, with a daily decline of 1.07%, a 5 - day decline of 0.25%, a 1 - month decline of 5.01%, and a decline of 5.08% since the beginning of the year [274][276].

Core Insights - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates a projected decrease of 235 yuan/ton, with an increase in the expected drop by 5 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, translating to a decrease of 0.18-0.21 yuan per liter, exceeding the downward threshold [1][4] - The oil price is expected to continue its downward trend, with the possibility of exceeding a 300 yuan/ton decrease as the adjustment date approaches [4] Oil Market Performance - Recent performance of crude oil shows a decline, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down by 0.94% to $61.99 per barrel and Brent crude down by 0.92% to $65.92 per barrel [4] - The drop in oil prices is attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and a reduction in expectations for supply disruptions, alongside OPEC+'s production increase policy [4] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory reported a decrease of approximately 2.4 million barrels, surpassing the expected reduction of 1.2 million barrels, which limited the decline in oil prices [4] Upcoming Data and Market Sentiment - The market is awaiting further data releases, including the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory and Eurozone inflation data, which could influence oil price movements [4] - The sentiment in the market remains cautious, with significant fluctuations expected in oil prices as new data is released [4] Regional Fuel Prices - The current fuel prices across various regions in China are as follows: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 7.26 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.73 yuan, 0 diesel at 6.91 yuan [5] - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 7.28 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.89 yuan, 0 diesel at 6.91 yuan [6] - Hainan: 92 gasoline at 8.37 yuan, 95 gasoline at 8.89 yuan, 0 diesel at 6.99 yuan [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report offers short - term trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. These forecasts are influenced by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic policies [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Facing disturbances from tariff issues, with a trend strength of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][5][9]. - **Silver**: In a high - level oscillation, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][5][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously increasing, putting pressure on prices. The trend strength is 0, showing a neutral outlook [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Operating within a range, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][14]. - **Lead**: Showing a mid - term upward trend, with a trend strength of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][19][23]. - **Aluminum**: The price center is moving up. Aluminum has a trend strength of 0, alumina has a trend strength of 1, and casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24][26]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between macro and fundamental factors, resulting in an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][27][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and macro - expectations, leading to an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the number of warehouse receipts is relatively small. The oscillating pattern may continue, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][37][40]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying market fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, resulting in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Due to sector sentiment resonance, they are in a relatively strong oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][44][48]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Cost expectations may rise, leading to a relatively strong oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][50][53]. - **Coke**: Oscillating with an upward bias, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][55][58]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, oscillating with an upward bias, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][56][58]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the market is stabilizing with oscillations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][60][63]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamental upside is limited [2][62]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is insufficient speculation on US soybean weather, lacking upward drivers [2][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Waiting for the USDA report, with a rebound and oscillation trend [2][64]. - **Soybean**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is oscillating [2][64]. - **Corn**: Undergoing oscillating adjustments [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The expectation of tight old - crop inventory continues to support futures prices [2][68]. - **Egg**: As the peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the expected difference [2][70]. - **Live Pig**: Spot sentiment is weakening, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices [2][71]. - **Peanut**: There is support at the lower level [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆★, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with some upward drivers but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel Oil: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The impact of OPEC+'s rapid production increase policy on oil prices in Q3 is temporarily limited, but after the peak season, if the US tariff policy continues, oil prices may face downward pressure. Crude oil is expected to have a higher bottom and be volatile and bullish in Q3 [1] - For fuel oil, high - sulfur fuel oil is weak due to low demand and eased supply risks, while low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil with a short - term bullish crack spread [2] - The actual asphalt production in June exceeded the plan, inventory started to accumulate, demand recovery is delayed, and the fundamental weakness restricts the upward space of asphalt prices [2] - The international LPG market has a loose supply, overseas prices may be under pressure, and the LPG futures market is expected to be volatile and bearish [3] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Yesterday, international oil prices opened low and closed high, with the SC08 contract rising 1.88% during the trading day [1] - OPEC+'s actual monthly production increase is less than the target increase, and Q3 is a seasonal peak for gasoline and jet fuel demand, so the production increase can be well absorbed. After Q3, if the US tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline [1] - The final result of the US tariff game may not be higher than the level in early April, and crude oil is expected to have a higher bottom and be volatile and bullish in Q3 [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the rise in oil product futures, followed by low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), while high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) was relatively weak [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is low, and supply risks are eased, leading to a continuous weakening of FU's single - side price and crack spread [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure was limited due to the coking profit and diesel crack spread, but demand lacks a clear driver, and LU follows crude oil with a short - term bullish crack spread [2] Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery production exceeded the plan by 10000 tons (+4.3%), and inventory started to accumulate by 24000 tons in late June [2] - In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly, and the cumulative shipment volume since the beginning of the year decreased from an 8% year - on - year increase to 7% [2] - High temperature and rainfall may delay demand recovery, and Q3 is a key window for demand observation. The asphalt price follows crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit the upward space [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international LPG market supply is generally loose, and overseas prices may be under pressure due to OPEC's expected production increase in August [3] - Last week, new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH margins. Attention should be paid to the rebound rhythm of PDH operating rates [3] - In summer, the supply pressure increases, overseas prices are under pressure, and the futures market is volatile and bearish [3]

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - The upcoming high-level trade talks between the US and China have led to a rebound in oil prices, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [1] - ING suggests that while negotiations may improve market sentiment, substantial progress in reducing tariffs is necessary to boost demand prospects [1] - OPEC+ is expected to continue its aggressive production increase policy in Q3, consistent with the plans announced in May and June, despite risks of policy changes [1] Group 2: Natural Gas Market Developments - European benchmark TTF natural gas futures rose by 5.51% in May and June, the largest single-day increase since mid-March, driven by the EU's plan to phase out Russian gas imports by the end of 2027 [2] - The EU's measures include the gradual cancellation of long-term gas contracts and a ban on new contracts by the end of 2025, which is expected to reduce Russian gas supply to the EU by one-third by the end of this year [2] - Reports indicate that a power outage at the Freeport LNG export terminal in the US may impact production, potentially providing further support for European gas prices depending on the duration of the outage [2] Group 3: Coffee Production Forecast - Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) has raised its coffee production forecast for the 2025/26 season due to favorable weather conditions, projecting a 2.7% year-on-year increase to 55.7 million bags [3] - The forecast for Arabica coffee production has been increased to 37 million bags, up from a previous estimate of 34.7 million bags, although still a 6.6% decrease from the previous season [3] - Robusta coffee production is expected to rise significantly by 28%, with the forecast adjusted from 17.1 million bags to 18.7 million bags [3]