9月降息预期

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林天顺:8.16黄金高位回落后区间震荡,下周黄金走势分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 15:39
Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a state of tension, fluctuating between $3,330 and $3,370, as market participants await the outcome of the summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, which may impact geopolitical risks and gold demand [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight increase on Friday but overall declined by 1.85% for the week [1] - The upcoming summit is focused on the Ukraine ceasefire agreement, which could significantly influence gold prices [1] - Geopolitical uncertainty and a low interest rate environment typically boost investor demand for gold [1] Group 2: Short-term Outlook - The short-term focus for gold is on resistance levels between $3,350 and $3,358, while support levels are identified between $3,320 and $3,310 [4] - The recent price action indicates a false rebound, with the market not breaking above $3,370, suggesting that the downward trend remains intact [2] - The ultimate target for gold prices is projected to be between $3,000 and $2,950, with key levels at $3,245 and $3,150 to $3,120 [2]
美联储官员表态不一:9月降息预期升温待数据定夺
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 07:42
本文由 AI 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 【9月降息预期升温,市场聚焦美联储官员动态及后续数据】9月降息预期不断升温,市场正密切关注美 联储官员的更多动态。 当地时间周五,芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示,本周通胀数据好坏参半,再加 上关税问题存在持续不确定性,这使他对降息有所犹豫。此前,古尔斯比曾提出"黄金路径",即在通胀 保持温和、劳动力市场稳定的同时逐步降息。在9月议息会议前,古尔斯比仍希望看到更有说服力的数 据。 数据显示,7月CPI与市场预期基本相符,但核心CPI小幅涨至3.1%,略高于华尔街预期。不过, PPI意外录得0.9%的环比涨幅,创下约三年来最大涨幅。古尔斯比称,本周CPI、PPI数据"显示出人们对 通胀走向的担忧",因为服务价格"明显并非暂时现象"且正在"上涨"。他认为:"我们至少还需一份数 据,才能确定是否还走在'黄金路径'上。"他还指出:"一切取决于数据和前景。若持续收到那样的通胀 报告……我会很放心,嘿,尘埃落定,看来我们仍处于强劲且通胀回落的状态。" 最新消息,旧金山联 储主席戴利表示,她仍支持最早下个月开始放松政策。此前数据显示,上个月零售额强于预期,批发价 格也 ...
美联储威廉姆斯谈劳动力市场降温 谨慎对待9月降息预期
news flash· 2025-08-02 01:52
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve official Williams describes the labor market as experiencing a "moderate and gradual cooling," while still remaining robust overall [1] Labor Market Conditions - The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June, indicating a marginal rise in joblessness [1] - The downward revision of employment growth data for May and June is highlighted as a significant focus of the recent report [1] Interest Rate Outlook - Williams expresses caution regarding the market's high expectations (up to 80%) for a rate cut in September, indicating that he does not fully endorse this outlook [1] - He acknowledges the challenges faced by market participants and policymakers alike in interpreting signals from the economy [1] Economic Growth Projections - The expectation is set for the U.S. economic growth to slow to approximately 1% this year, with a potential recovery anticipated by 2026 [1]