Core Insights - Gold prices have surged past $3500, marking a significant milestone and attracting global attention from investors [1][3] - The rise in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, indicating a potential new era for gold investment [3] Group 1: Reasons Behind Gold Surge - Signal 1: Expectations of interest rate cuts in September are increasing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [4] - Signal 2: Central banks are aggressively buying gold to mitigate dollar risks, providing strong support for gold prices [5] - Signal 3: The dollar is under short-term pressure due to trade tariffs, creating a divergence between gold prices and the dollar [6] - Signal 4: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7] - Signal 5: The rising investment demand for gold, coupled with increasing mining costs, is contributing to higher gold prices [8] Group 2: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Key Point 1: The relationship between the dollar and interest rates will be crucial in determining gold price trends [10] - Key Point 2: Continued strong buying by central banks could indicate that $3500 may not be the peak for gold prices [11] - Key Point 3: Monitoring fund flows and market sentiment, such as ETF holdings and investor enthusiasm, will be essential for assessing gold price stability [12] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The company offers tools for gold trading, enabling ordinary investors to capitalize on the current market conditions [13] - Features such as low spreads and dual trading systems enhance the trading experience for investors [14][15] - The company provides daily strategies and live market updates to guide investors in navigating the gold market [16]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which is perceived as a direct intervention in the Fed's independence, leading to a decline in the dollar's value and a subsequent increase in gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a significant increase of $30 following the announcement, with the dollar index dropping approximately 30 points [1]. - The market sentiment shifted dramatically due to the news, resulting in a strong upward movement in gold prices, which reached a high of $3376 before closing at $3365 [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, but concerns about the sustainability of upward momentum exist, as market participants are cautious about the potential volatility [2]. - The dollar index is currently fluctuating within a moving average range, creating uncertainty for gold's price direction [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Recommended trading strategy involves operating within a range of $3355 to $3380, with a stop loss of $5 and a take profit target of $15 to $20 [3]. - Traders are advised to be cautious and consider waiting for stabilization at key support levels before entering long positions, while also being prepared to short if resistance levels are encountered [2][3].

Group 1: Gold Market - The gold market shows a weak rebound, with the possibility of an early end to the short-term rally. The upcoming Jackson Hole central bank meeting is crucial for predicting future Federal Reserve monetary policy [1] - Market speculation is high regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the latest PPI data causing some traders to temper their expectations. However, the bond market continues to bet on a rate cut [1] - Technical analysis indicates a weak bullish momentum for gold, with significant resistance at $3334 and a potential drop below $3327 leading to new lows [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, but the overall outlook remains pessimistic due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances. OPEC+ has increased production, exacerbating the situation [2] - Since April, OPEC+ has been in a production increase phase, with a total increase of 246.7 million barrels per day expected by September, ahead of schedule [2] - Technical indicators suggest a potential for a mid-term rebound in oil prices, but the overall trend remains bearish with resistance at $64 [2] Group 3: US Dollar Index - The US dollar index showed a slight rebound but remains in a downward trend, heavily influenced by Federal Reserve monetary policy [3] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding a potential rate cut in September, with some officials opposing it due to high inflation levels [3] - Technical analysis indicates that the dollar index is facing resistance from long-term moving averages, with a potential for a pullback [4] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish K-line pattern, indicating the start of a mid-term adjustment. The short-term outlook shows lower highs and a potential continuation of the downtrend [5] Group 5: Copper Market - The copper market is experiencing a corrective phase following previous declines, with a high probability of forming a downward ABC pattern. Resistance is noted at $4.42 [6] Group 6: Economic Data Overview - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 reached 235,000, exceeding expectations and marking a new high since late June [7] - The preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI for August is 53.3, surpassing expectations and indicating a return to expansion [7] - EIA natural gas inventories rose by 130 billion cubic feet, with the rate of increase slowing down [7] Group 7: Upcoming Events - Key events include an interview with Boston Fed President Collins and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, which are expected to provide insights into future monetary policy [8]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant decline due to reduced safe-haven demand, with COMEX gold futures dropping to a low of $3368 before closing at $3378 per ounce, a decrease of 0.14% [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) saw a 0.17% increase, marking four consecutive days of net inflows totaling 87.25 million, while the gold stock ETF (159562) fell by 0.83% [1] - The upcoming Jackson Hole "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting" is anticipated to be crucial, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech expected to influence market expectations for a potential rate cut in September [1] Group 2 - A meeting between former President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky took place, followed by discussions with European leaders, indicating geopolitical factors influencing market sentiment [1] - The market is currently experiencing heightened expectations for monetary easing, making Powell's upcoming remarks particularly significant for gold price movements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a state of tension, fluctuating between $3,330 and $3,370, as market participants await the outcome of the summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, which may impact geopolitical risks and gold demand [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight increase on Friday but overall declined by 1.85% for the week [1] - The upcoming summit is focused on the Ukraine ceasefire agreement, which could significantly influence gold prices [1] - Geopolitical uncertainty and a low interest rate environment typically boost investor demand for gold [1] Group 2: Short-term Outlook - The short-term focus for gold is on resistance levels between $3,350 and $3,358, while support levels are identified between $3,320 and $3,310 [4] - The recent price action indicates a false rebound, with the market not breaking above $3,370, suggesting that the downward trend remains intact [2] - The ultimate target for gold prices is projected to be between $3,000 and $2,950, with key levels at $3,245 and $3,150 to $3,120 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a rate cut in September is rising, with the market closely monitoring the dynamics of Federal Reserve officials and upcoming data [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed hesitation about rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing tariff uncertainties, emphasizing the need for more convincing data before making decisions [1] - Goolsbee previously suggested a "golden path" for gradual rate cuts, contingent on stable labor markets and moderate inflation [1] - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports the possibility of easing policies as early as next month, citing a weak labor market and high inflation rates above the Fed's target [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - July CPI aligned with market expectations, but core CPI rose slightly to 3.1%, exceeding Wall Street forecasts [1] - PPI unexpectedly recorded a 0.9% month-over-month increase, marking the largest rise in nearly three years, raising concerns about inflation trends [1] - The market anticipates the release of key employment and inflation data before the Fed's meeting on September 16-17, with experts predicting potential rate cuts [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - The Fed's upcoming meeting will be crucial in determining whether to implement the first rate cut of the year, with market sentiment leaning towards a September cut and possibly more before the end of the year [1] - Futures markets are optimistic about rate cuts, with traders pricing in a near certainty of a September cut and a potential third cut by year-end [1]

Core Insights - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased following the release of lower-than-expected CPI data for July [1] - The July CPI year-on-year remained at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The core CPI for July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3%, marking the highest level since February [1] - Following the data release, traders adjusted their bets on a September rate cut, with the probability now at 95% [1] Market Reactions - After the CPI data was released, COMEX gold futures saw a slight decline of 0.15%, closing at $3399.60 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.39%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.06% [1] Analysis and Outlook - The moderate performance of the July CPI data injected a brief sense of optimism into the market, but the overall inflation growth rate being below expectations, combined with weak non-farm employment data, reinforced the anticipation of a September rate cut [1] - Concerns regarding data quality and upward pressure on core CPI suggest that investors should remain cautious [1] - Short-term market volatility may increase, but the long-term trend will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the evolution of the global macroeconomic environment [1]

Macroeconomic Overview - The US non-farm payroll data for July showed a significant slowdown, with only 73,000 jobs added, below the expected 104,000, and previous months' data revised down by 258,000 to 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, indicating a cooling labor market since April [1] - The labor force participation rate unexpectedly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%, while the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [1] - Hourly wage growth increased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 3.9%, and month-on-month growth also rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.3% [1] - The US GDP growth for Q2 exceeded expectations, with a significant increase to 3% from a contraction of 0.5% in Q1, driven by net exports contributing 5 percentage points to GDP [1] - The core PCE price index for June rose by 2.58% year-on-year, while the core PCE increased by 2.79%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.85% [1] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July fell to 48, below the expected 49.5, with the employment index dropping further to 43.4 [1] Index Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 3.40%, the Nasdaq 100 Index decreased by 2.19%, and the S&P 500 Index dropped by 2.36% during the week of July 28 to August 1 [2][3] - Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, only two sectors saw gains, with Utilities leading at 1.52% and Materials lagging with a decline of 5.40% [2][3] Investment Direction - The US stock market experienced a pullback, with the Federal Reserve's July FOMC indicating a wait-and-see approach regarding the inflation effects of tariffs, while the July employment data fell short of expectations, raising recession concerns and increasing the likelihood of rate cuts in September [4] - Approximately 78% of S&P 500 companies that reported Q2 earnings exceeded market expectations, compared to 73% in Q1, suggesting relative economic stability in Q2 [4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have significantly increased, with an 83.6% probability of a rate cut starting in September [4] - The BoShi S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a cost-effective investment tool for domestic investors to capture growth in the US stock market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, compounded by the U.S. Labor Department's substantial downward revision of May and June data, leading to a three-month average decline to 35,300, well below the 100,000 mark [1] Group 1 - The downward revision of employment data for May and June was much larger than normal, indicating potential weaknesses in the labor market [1] - If the three-month average of non-farm employment remains below 100,000 after the August data is released in early September, a rate cut in September becomes highly likely [1] - The July non-farm report has reignited market expectations for a rate cut in September, causing a sharp decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield immediately after the data release [1] Group 2 - The potential for further declines in the 10-year Treasury yield will depend on weak economic data from the U.S. or a clear dovish shift from the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve official Williams describes the labor market as experiencing a "moderate and gradual cooling," while still remaining robust overall [1] Labor Market Conditions - The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June, indicating a marginal rise in joblessness [1] - The downward revision of employment growth data for May and June is highlighted as a significant focus of the recent report [1] Interest Rate Outlook - Williams expresses caution regarding the market's high expectations (up to 80%) for a rate cut in September, indicating that he does not fully endorse this outlook [1] - He acknowledges the challenges faced by market participants and policymakers alike in interpreting signals from the economy [1] Economic Growth Projections - The expectation is set for the U.S. economic growth to slow to approximately 1% this year, with a potential recovery anticipated by 2026 [1]