中新社华盛顿2月20日电 (记者沙晗汀)美国商务部当地时间20日公布的初步数据显示，去年第四季度美 国国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算环比增长1.4%，低于市场普遍预期。 数据显示，去年第四季度美国经济环比增长1.4%，低于第三季度4.4%的增速。2025年全年美国经济增 长2.2%，低于2024年全年2.8%的增速。 从具体环比数据来看，去年第四季度，占美国经济总量约70%的个人消费支出增长2.4%；反映企业投资 状况的非住宅类固定资产投资增长3.7%；住宅类固定资产投资下降1.5%；政府消费支出和投资下降 5.1%；出口下降0.9%，进口下降1.3%。 美媒分析认为，联邦政府"停摆"是导致第四季度经济增长放缓的主要因素，但整体来看，美国民众消费 和企业投资依然稳健，经济仍具韧性。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 据美国商务部估算，去年联邦政府"停摆"使第四季度经济增长率下降约一个百分点，具体影响"无法量 化"。 由于国会两党在政府预算案上僵持不下，去年10月1日至11月12日，美国联邦政府因资金用尽"停摆"43 天，是美国历史上时间最长的政府"停摆"。 按贡献度计算，个人消费支出拉动当季经济增长1.58个 ...

美国联邦政府因资金问题于上周末陷入部分"停摆"后，美国国会众议院当地时间2月2日对拨款法案进行 审议，相关辩论预计将持续到当天深夜，众议院议长约翰逊表示，可能在3日进行最终表决。由于美参 议院1月30日通过的联邦政府拨款法案未及时在众议院审议通过，美国联邦政府多个部门1月31日起陷 入"技术性停摆"。 ...

【#美移民执法再杀美国公民#】#美联邦执法人员开枪杀死1名护士# 据新华社消息，美国明尼苏达州1 月24日又发生一起联邦执法人员开枪致美国公民死亡事件。这是今年以来第五起联邦执法人员开枪致人 伤亡事件，民众抗议浪潮愈加汹涌，联邦政府与地方政府冲突加剧。多名民主党籍联邦参议员24日发声 谴责这类移民执法行动，表示将投票反对包含联邦执法机构预算的临时拨款法案，这一最新动向增加了 美国联邦政府再次停摆的可能性。明尼苏达州最大城市明尼阿波利斯24日上午再次发生移民执法枪击事 件，造成一名37岁的美国男性公民死亡。当地警方证实，死者是当地居民亚历克斯·普雷蒂，职业为护 士，警方记录显示其"拥有合法持枪许可"。针对事发原因，美联邦机构与当地警方各执一词。美国土安 全部称，死者生前持枪反抗，联邦执法人员"出于自卫"开枪，一名边境巡逻局执法人员射中了对方。但 上传到社交媒体网站的一段视频显示，多名执法人员"围攻"一名男子，该男子在枪声中倒地。当地媒体 报道说，冲突发生前拍摄的视频显示，该男子并非持枪接近执法人员，而是拿着手机，似乎在拍摄执法 人员的行动。当地警方表示，他们还没有收到联邦机构关于枪击事件起因的官方报告，但"视频 ...

Group 1 - A shooting incident involving immigration enforcement in Minneapolis has escalated tensions and increased the likelihood of a partial government shutdown next week [1][3] - The federal funding for most government departments, including the Department of Homeland Security and the Pentagon, is set to expire on January 31, with a spending bill passed by the Republican-controlled House needing Senate approval [3][4] - Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, plan to vote against the spending bill due to the recent shooting incident, which has disrupted the fragile unity between Democrats and Republicans regarding the funding [3][4][6] Group 2 - The recent shooting involved a 37-year-old American citizen, Alex Preti, who was confirmed to have been armed during the incident, although conflicting reports suggest he was not approaching law enforcement with a weapon [4][5] - The incident follows a previous shooting of another American citizen by immigration enforcement, which has sparked protests against violent enforcement actions across the country [5] - Schumer's statement indicates that Senate Democrats will block the spending bill if it includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security, citing the need for reforms to curb abuses by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government experienced its longest shutdown in history, lasting 43 days, which ended with the passage of a temporary funding bill by the House of Representatives and subsequent signing by President Trump [1] - The shutdown was caused by a failure to pass a new temporary funding bill before government funds ran out, leading to a deadlock between the Republican and Democratic parties [1] - The shutdown had significant impacts on the economy and public welfare, affecting over one million federal employees who faced financial pressure due to unpaid wages, and disrupting programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program that serves 42 million Americans [1] Group 2 - The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the six-week shutdown resulted in an economic loss of approximately $11 billion, with experts suggesting that the long duration and its effects on public welfare and travel could have lasting negative impacts on the U.S. economy [2] - The recurring nature of federal government shutdowns has become a political norm, with 15 instances occurring since 1980, reflecting deeper systemic issues and governance failures rather than just policy disagreements [2] - Although the temporary funding bill provides operational funds for most federal agencies until January 30, 2026, the core disagreements over healthcare and welfare spending remain unresolved, indicating a potential for future shutdowns [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent public statements from key Federal Reserve officials indicate a strong consensus towards a potential interest rate cut in December, shifting market expectations significantly [1][3][12]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and New York Fed President John Williams have expressed support for a rate cut, emphasizing that risks in the labor market now outweigh inflation concerns [1][3]. - Williams highlighted that there is still room for policy adjustments, suggesting that a rate cut is the "safest choice" given the current economic conditions [3]. - Daly warned of the fragility of the labor market, stating that any increase in layoffs could lead to a significant rise in unemployment [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the dovish comments from Fed officials, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December surged from approximately 40% to 80% within a week [1][12]. - The U.S. Treasury market reacted positively, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.03%, marking a new low for the month [12]. Group 3: Decision-Making Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces unprecedented challenges due to the lack of key economic data, as the government shutdown has delayed the release of important employment and inflation reports [7][16]. - This data vacuum complicates the decision-making process for the Fed, as officials will have to make judgments without complete information [7][16]. Group 4: Internal Divisions - Despite the growing dovish sentiment, there are still significant divisions within the Federal Reserve, with some members advocating for a more cautious approach [9][10]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins has expressed that a "moderate or slightly tight" policy stance remains appropriate due to resilient demand potentially exerting upward pressure on inflation [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's government can appoint more Fed officials, which may raise expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Fed. The possible end of the US federal government shutdown and the Fed's provision of liquidity, along with the expansion of fiscal policies globally and central banks' continuous gold - buying, as well as geopolitical risks, may support precious metal prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Gold - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 944.31 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.19 compared to the previous day and 26.80 compared to last week. The trading volume was 51666.00, down 11382.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in ten - gram units) was 89616.00, with no change from the previous day but an increase of 1800.00 compared to last week [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4133.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of 68.20 compared to the previous day and 260.10 compared to last week. The trading volume was 278020.00, up 33400.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in troy ounces) was 37575139.58, down 338082.64 from the previous day [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 4136.75 dollars/ounce, with a change of 13.45 compared to the previous day and 185.65 compared to last week. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1046.36 tons, with a change of 0.28 compared to the previous day [1]. 3.1.2 Silver - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 12092.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of 227.00 compared to the previous day and 671.00 compared to last week. The trading volume was 870430.00, up 145316.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in ten - gram units) was 583060.00, down 56880.00 from the previous day [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 53.23 dollars/ounce, with a change of 2.15 compared to the previous day and 6.33 compared to last week. The trading volume was 69857.00, up 41384.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in troy ounces) was 478191872.10, down 366186.53 from the previous day [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 51.54 dollars/ounce, with a change of 3.78 compared to the previous day and 0.29 compared to last week. iShare Silver ETF holdings were 482.31 tons, with a change of 1.29 compared to the previous day [1]. 3.1.3 Price Ratios - The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 78.34, with a change of - 1.54 compared to the previous day and - 1.98 compared to last week. The ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 80.92, with a change of - 5.12 compared to the previous day and - 1.99 compared to last week [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The Atlanta Fed President who advocates "no rate cut in December" will retire in February next year. The "third - in - command of the Fed" said the Fed may soon restart bond purchases to manage liquidity. US Treasury Secretary mentioned Trump's plan to issue $2000 tax refunds to families with annual incomes below $100,000 and "gradual" adjustment of US debt issuance [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - For silver, it is advisable to lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 870 - 890 and the resistance level is around 960 - 1000. For London silver, the support level is around 38 - 45 and the resistance level is around 55 - 60. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9500 - 10500 and the resistance level is around 12400 - 13000 [1].

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown lasted for 43 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history, ending on November 12 when President Trump signed a temporary budget bill [1] - The temporary budget will keep most federal agencies operational until January 30, 2026, and provides full funding for the Department of Agriculture, Department of Veterans Affairs, and Congress for the entire fiscal year [1] - The budget does not include the extended healthcare subsidy provisions that Democrats had previously insisted on [1] Group 1 - The House of Representatives passed the temporary budget with a vote of 222 in favor and 209 against, with 6 Democrats joining Republicans in support and 2 Republicans voting against [1] - The Senate approved the budget with a vote of 60 in favor and 40 against, with 8 Democrats voting alongside Republicans to reach the necessary 60 votes [1] Group 2 - As part of the agreement to end the shutdown, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell assured Democrats that a vote on healthcare subsidies would take place in mid-December [2] - The shutdown caused significant disruptions in air travel, with the FAA reporting a 6% reduction in flights at 40 busy airports across the U.S. [2] - On the day of the shutdown's end, FlightAware reported that 2,454 domestic and international flights were delayed and 906 flights were canceled [2]

Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a key procedural vote with a margin of 213 to 209, clearing the way for a final vote on the Senate-approved temporary funding bill [1] - The House will engage in an additional hour of debate before the final vote on the temporary funding bill, which could end the federal government shutdown that has lasted for over 40 days [1] - The government shutdown began on October 1 due to the Senate's failure to pass a new temporary funding bill before government funds were exhausted [1] - On November 10, the Senate voted to approve a temporary funding bill, marking a significant step towards ending the government shutdown [1]

Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a key procedural vote with a margin of 213 to 209, clearing the way for a final vote on the Senate-approved temporary funding bill [2] - This procedural vote follows the conclusion of the first round of debate in the House, which will lead to an additional hour of debate before the final vote on the temporary funding bill [2] - The passage of this bill is expected to end the federal government shutdown that has lasted for over 40 days, which began on October 1 due to the Senate's failure to pass a new temporary funding bill before government funds were exhausted [2] - The Senate had previously voted on November 10 to approve a temporary funding bill, marking a critical step towards ending the government shutdown [2]