Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts from one to three cuts, starting in September 2025, with each cut being 25 basis points, lowering the policy rate to 3.5% [1] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are increasing, which is driving demand for gold as a safe haven [2] Group 2: Global Market Outlook - JPMorgan believes that global stock markets remain an attractive option, raising its year-end and 12-month targets for the S&P 500 index, supported by strong earnings and improved valuations [5] - The expected year-end target for the S&P 500 index is between 6,350 and 6,450 points, with a 12-month target of 6,650 to 6,750 points [5] Group 3: Trade and Currency Impact - MUFG indicates that trade uncertainties, particularly due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, are likely to negatively impact the US dollar [4] - The market is currently more focused on the economic data impacts of tariffs rather than the tariffs themselves [6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Investment Opportunities - CICC continues to favor investment opportunities in the outdoor sports and gold jewelry sectors, driven by lifestyle changes and brand innovation [5] - The solid-state battery industry is entering a critical phase of industrialization, presenting investment opportunities in related equipment sectors [5] - The Hong Kong real estate market is believed to be entering a new upward cycle, benefiting all real estate companies operating in the region [8] Group 5: Emerging Technologies and Market Trends - The brain-computer interface and surgical robot sectors are accelerating in application and market expansion, driven by advancements in AI and healthcare needs [7] - The rare earth industry is expected to see improved performance in the third and fourth quarters, supported by growing demand from various sectors [9]

（FOMC）在美国通胀上行方面已经掌握一定程度上的确定性。 "新债王"Gundlach：美联储倾向于降息。 ...

报告摘要 从四个维度来看，美国或开启新一轮通胀上行的螺旋，这对美国债务压力和货币政策都将是一个巨大的挑战。 一、消费者通胀预期飙升 今年以来美国消费者通胀预期飙升。4月份的消费者1年期通胀预期继续飙升至6.7%，创下1981年11月份以来最高 值；5年期通胀预期飙升至4.4%，创下1991年7月份以来最高值，2021-22年大通胀时期，1年期和5年期通胀预期的 高点也仅为5.4%、3.0%。 在特朗普关税政策前景下，面对当下美国消费者通胀预期的飙升，应当对未来通胀上行风险保持高度警惕。历史 经验表明，在面对大通胀周期时，1）消费者的通胀感知更加灵敏。在通胀大幅上行初期，消费者通胀预期的上行 时点比实际的通胀上行时点大约要早1-2个季度，比如2021年、2019年、2002年。预计未来几个月美国消费者通胀 预期仍有进一步上行的可能。2）而专业人士通胀预期变化相对滞后，2021-22年彭博一致预期是在"追着实际通胀 跑"，通胀预测明显滞后于实际的通胀上行。目前对今年CPI同比的最新预测是3%，这一幅度大概率也还不能完全 体现关税的影响。3）市场交易的通胀预期虽然相对"及时"，但非常多变。容易受到各种叙事和突然情况 ...