Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the implications of U.S. inflation trends, suggesting that gold may serve as a safe haven amid economic uncertainties and rising inflation expectations [1][5][6]. Gold Market Analysis - On Wednesday, international spot gold opened at $3,315.16, reaching a high of $3,349.89 and a low of $3,311.19, closing at $3,347.95, marking an increase of $32.92 or 0.99% [1]. - The Wellxin precious metals index opened at 6,806.38 points, peaked at 6,907.01 points, and closed at 6,892.13 points, up 83.38 points or 1.22% [4]. - The article identifies a "super depressed repair" characteristic in gold prices, indicating a potential short-term buying opportunity as prices are expected to recover from recent declines [4][5]. U.S. Dollar and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index opened at 98.28 points, with a high of 98.43 and a low of 98.07, closing at 98.22, down 0.05% [3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent minutes highlighted concerns over economic, employment, and real estate market declines, alongside rising inflation risks, which may enhance demand for gold as a safe haven [5][7]. Inflation Expectations - The Federal Reserve anticipates that tariffs will push inflation higher this year, with further upward pressure expected in 2026, and a return to 2% inflation projected for 2027 [6]. - The article suggests that a potential economic crisis could lead to a significant drop in demand, ultimately causing inflation to fall below 2% [6]. Technical Analysis - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring gold prices in relation to a mid-term strong convergence triangle trend line, suggesting that a breakout could occur soon [10]. - The analysis indicates that the current market conditions may lead to a significant upward movement in gold prices, especially if inflation continues to rise [15].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts from one to three cuts, starting in September 2025, with each cut being 25 basis points, lowering the policy rate to 3.5% [1] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are increasing, which is driving demand for gold as a safe haven [2] Group 2: Global Market Outlook - JPMorgan believes that global stock markets remain an attractive option, raising its year-end and 12-month targets for the S&P 500 index, supported by strong earnings and improved valuations [5] - The expected year-end target for the S&P 500 index is between 6,350 and 6,450 points, with a 12-month target of 6,650 to 6,750 points [5] Group 3: Trade and Currency Impact - MUFG indicates that trade uncertainties, particularly due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, are likely to negatively impact the US dollar [4] - The market is currently more focused on the economic data impacts of tariffs rather than the tariffs themselves [6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Investment Opportunities - CICC continues to favor investment opportunities in the outdoor sports and gold jewelry sectors, driven by lifestyle changes and brand innovation [5] - The solid-state battery industry is entering a critical phase of industrialization, presenting investment opportunities in related equipment sectors [5] - The Hong Kong real estate market is believed to be entering a new upward cycle, benefiting all real estate companies operating in the region [8] Group 5: Emerging Technologies and Market Trends - The brain-computer interface and surgical robot sectors are accelerating in application and market expansion, driven by advancements in AI and healthcare needs [7] - The rare earth industry is expected to see improved performance in the third and fourth quarters, supported by growing demand from various sectors [9]

Core Viewpoint - The "Bond King" Gundlach suggests that the Federal Reserve is inclined towards interest rate cuts, indicating a shift in monetary policy direction amidst rising inflation concerns [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - Gundlach believes that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has gained a certain level of certainty regarding rising inflation in the U.S. [1]

Group 1: Consumer Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations in the U.S. have surged, with one-year expectations rising to 6.7% in April, the highest since November 1981, and five-year expectations reaching 4.4%, the highest since July 1991 [2][9] - Historical data indicates that consumer inflation perceptions are more sensitive and tend to rise 1-2 quarters before actual inflation increases [2][13] - Professional inflation forecasts have lagged behind actual inflation trends, with the latest Bloomberg consensus predicting a 3% year-on-year CPI, which may not fully account for tariff impacts [2][9] Group 2: Inflation Breadth - The breadth of inflation, indicating the range of price increases across the economy, has rebounded since last year, with the proportion of PCE prices rising from 62.7% to 72.5% [3][14] - The increase in inflation breadth suggests a higher likelihood of inflation expectations rising and exceeding forecasts, potentially leading to a more persistent inflation risk [3][14] Group 3: Tariff Price Transmission Effects - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices has not yet been reflected in the March CPI data, as the transmission from importers to retail takes time [4][19] - Research indicates that tariffs on intermediate goods can raise producer prices within 1-2 months, but consumer price impacts may take several months to manifest [4][19] Group 4: Food and Rent Inflation - Food inflation has risen, with CPI food prices increasing from 0.2% to 0.4% month-on-month in March, influenced by factors like avian flu and tariff expectations [5][20] - Rent inflation shows signs of rebound, with major rent increases observed, which could contribute to core inflation persistence due to its significant weight in the CPI [5][20] Group 5: Short-term Inflation Impact of Tariffs - Scenarios indicate that tariffs could raise the overall import tariff rate significantly, with potential CPI increases of 4.0% to 4.8% under certain tariff conditions [6][24] - The non-linear risk of inflation escalation due to tariffs suggests that actual impacts could exceed initial estimates [6][24] Group 6: Monetary Policy and Treasury Yield Implications - The Federal Reserve may face a dilemma due to significant inflation risks, with potential reluctance to lower interest rates unless there are drastic economic downturns [7][27] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are under pressure, influenced by liquidity shocks and potential investor distrust due to erratic trade policies [8][28]