美国 9 月 CPI 通胀点评 美国 9 月 CPI 通胀全面低于预期 9 月 CPI 同比 3.0%，预期 3.1%，前值 2.9%；CPI 环比 0.3%，预期 0.4%，前 值 0.4%。核心 CPI 同比 3.0%，预期 3.1%，前值 3.1%；核心 CPI 环比 0.2%， 预期 0.3%，前值 0.3%。 分项看： 1）食品通胀降温；能源商品价格显著上行。 食品项环比 0.2%（前值 0.5%），同比 3.1%（前值 3.2%），均降温；能源商品 环比大涨 3.8%（前值 1.7%），能源服务环比降至-0.7%（前值-0.2%）；能源项 总体环比 1.5%，较前值大幅提升 0.8 个百分点。 固定收益 | 固定收益点评 12 月降息也在路上？ 证券研究报告 2）核心商品：在新车二手车的带动下，通胀放缓。 核心商品环比 0.2%（前值 0.3%），同比 1.5%持平于前值。核心商品降温的原 因，一是二手车和汽车零部件通胀显著降温，环比从 0.5%降至 0%，同比从 2.6%降至 2.3%；其次，信息技术商品降温，环比从-0.3%降至-0.8%。 而家具家居、服装、休闲商品、医疗保健商品，对通胀贡献 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The resilience of the US economy is re - verified, and the game of interest rate cuts continues. In China, policy expectations are rising due to increased economic pressure in August. The US inflation outlook is clearer, and the Fed has restarted interest rate cuts, with the market expecting a more extended easing cycle [1][2]. - For commodities, it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals on dips. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations [3][4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, economic data in August showed signs of weakness, with features such as slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption. External tariff pressure increased, leading to an increase in domestic policy expectations for stable growth. There were positive developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations, including talks and a phone call between the leaders. On September 25, A - shares showed a mixed performance, and domestic commodity futures generally rose [1]. US Economic Situation - The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, but new orders improved, and the price index declined again. The CPI increased year - on - year, while the PPI growth rate declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot shows a more conservative outlook on future rate cuts than the market. There are deepening differences within the Fed on future monetary policy paths, and the US is facing a potential government shutdown [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints, and a major copper mine accident may reduce production. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term. In the chemical sector, some products have "anti - involution" potential. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental support. Precious metals are expected to strengthen due to de - dollarization and the interest - rate cut cycle [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals on dips in the commodity and stock index futures markets [4]. Key News - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, while the ChiNext Index rose over 1.5%. US new - home sales reached a new high, and the second - quarter GDP growth rate was revised up. There were statements from Fed officials on interest - rate policies. The US government may shut down, and there were developments in US - EU trade agreements and new trade investigations. US EIA crude oil inventories decreased [5].