[Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月19日 [美国Table_NewTitle] 11月通胀意外放缓，但参考性降低 ——海外观察：美国2025年11月CPI数据 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 宏 观 简 评 ➢ 事件：当地时间12月18日，美国劳工局发布美国11月CPI数据，同时由于缺少10月物价调 查，大部分物价指数11月环比数据无法计算。美国11月CPI同比2.7%，预期3.1%，9月值 3.0%；核心CPI同比2.6%，预期3.0%，9月值3.0%。 ➢ 核心观点：美国11月CPI数据意外放缓，主要受家庭食品和核心服务的大幅度降温影响。 能源服务受低基数以及冬季需求影响而保持在高位。关税影响依然难以忽视，服饰、新车 和医疗用品依然保持在年内较高增速。本次最大的意外是住房市场大幅度的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Energy and Energy Global (1142.HK) announced a placement of up to 1.368 billion new H-shares at a price of HKD 0.34 per share, aiming to raise a maximum of approximately HKD 465 million [1] Fund Allocation - Approximately 57.67% of the net proceeds from the placement will be used to repay debts [1] - About 8.7% will be allocated to expand existing energy commodity trading operations in South Korea [1] - Approximately 21.76% will be used to expand existing energy commodity trading operations in China [1] - Around 7.18% will be directed towards exploring potential opportunities in renewable energy [1] - About 4.69% will be allocated for general working capital [1] Share Details - The placement price represents a premium of approximately 1.49% over the last closing price of HKD 0.335 [1] - The shares being placed represent approximately 9.77% of the enlarged issued share capital [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic role of commodities in hedging against inflation and diversifying risks in the context of increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty. It highlights the need for balanced asset allocation among stocks, bonds, and commodities, focusing on timing, selection, and position sizing [4][5]. Group 1: Timing and Economic Cycles - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock is a classic framework for timing asset allocation, categorizing the economy into four phases: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6]. - Commodity performance varies across different economic cycles: during recovery, commodity prices remain low due to slow demand recovery; in overheating, strong demand leads to significant price increases; stagflation sees rising inflation with stagnant growth; and recession results in declining economic growth and rising bond prices [9][10]. - The relationship between risk assets and economic cycles indicates that stocks tend to lead economic changes, while commodities respond more synchronously or with a slight lag [11]. Group 2: Selection of Commodity Types - Commodities play a crucial role in combating inflation, as upstream raw material price fluctuations often exceed those of downstream products, providing a buffer against price increases [29]. - The article notes that inflation is often driven by significant price volatility in energy products, which can impact costs across various industries [30]. - Understanding the causes of inflation is essential: monetary phenomena can lead to nominal price increases, while supply-demand imbalances often result from constrained supply [32]. Group 3: Position Sizing and Risk Control - The volatility characteristics of stocks, bonds, and commodities differ, with commodities generally exhibiting higher volatility. In stable macro environments, these assets often move in different directions, allowing for risk mitigation through diversification [36]. - The article discusses the risks associated with inflationary changes, where rising inflation expectations can lead to a positive correlation between equity and commodity markets, complicating risk management strategies [39]. - It suggests that during periods of high volatility, conservative strategies may involve increasing bond allocations to stabilize the portfolio, while aggressive strategies might increase risk asset positions for higher returns [41]. Group 4: Reflection on Commodity Allocation - The article highlights the challenges of timing in the current economic environment, where traditional indicators may not accurately reflect the economic cycle due to structural changes [46]. - It points out that the demand for real estate-related commodities is being suppressed by high household leverage, and the economy is shifting towards a multi-faceted growth model driven by exports and consumption [48]. - The disparity in wealth distribution is noted as a factor that limits total demand for commodities, as lower-income households have less purchasing power compared to higher-income households [54][55].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - US CPI inflation in September was comprehensively lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of two more interest rate cuts within the year. The probability of another rate cut in December rose to 96% [1][6]. - The current data dispelled concerns about "major stagflation" caused by tariffs. The increase in tariffs did not lead to a rise in the CPI growth rate, suggesting that tariffs are mainly borne by exporters or importers [5]. - The current CPI data may be crucial for the FOMC meeting on December 10th. In the future, US Treasury yields will continue to decline, the US dollar may gradually turn downward, and major commodity categories are expected to rise [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall CPI Data - In September, the year - on - year CPI was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 2.9%); the month - on - month CPI was 0.3% (expected 0.4%, previous value 0.4%). The year - on - year core CPI was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.1%); the month - on - month core CPI was 0.2% (expected 0.3%, previous value 0.3%) [1]. 2. Sub - item Analysis Food and Energy - Food inflation cooled down, with the food item's month - on - month rate at 0.2% (previous value 0.5%) and year - on - year rate at 3.1% (previous value 3.2%). Energy commodity prices rose significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 3.8% (previous value 1.7%), and energy services' month - on - month rate dropped to - 0.7% (previous value - 0.2%). The overall energy item's month - on - month rate was 1.5%, a significant increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous value [2]. Core Goods - Driven by new and used cars, inflation slowed down. The month - on - month core goods rate was 0.2% (previous value 0.3%), and the year - on - year rate was 1.5%, the same as the previous value. The reasons for the slowdown were the significant cooling of used car and auto parts inflation and the cooling of information technology products. However, furniture, clothing, leisure goods, and medical care products contributed more to inflation [3]. Core Services - Driven by housing and transportation services, inflation slowed down. The month - on - month core services rate was 0.2% (previous value 0.3%), and the year - on - year rate was 3.5% (previous value 3.6%). The month - on - month growth rate of the largest - weighted housing item decreased from 0.4% to 0.2%, and transportation services inflation cooled down in September [4]. 3. Impact on the Market and Future Outlook - The comprehensively lower - than - expected CPI strengthened the expectation of two more interest rate cuts within the year. The probability of a rate cut in the upcoming Fed FOMC meeting is almost certain, and the probability of another cut in December rose to 96% [6]. - After the data release, US stock index futures rose, and US Treasury yields and the US dollar declined. In the future, US Treasury yields will continue to decline, the US dollar may gradually turn downward, major commodity categories are expected to rise, and precious metals that have fallen recently are also expected to rebound. The overseas interest rate cut cycle is beneficial for funds to flow into emerging markets [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The resilience of the US economy is re - verified, and the game of interest rate cuts continues. In China, policy expectations are rising due to increased economic pressure in August. The US inflation outlook is clearer, and the Fed has restarted interest rate cuts, with the market expecting a more extended easing cycle [1][2]. - For commodities, it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals on dips. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations [3][4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, economic data in August showed signs of weakness, with features such as slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption. External tariff pressure increased, leading to an increase in domestic policy expectations for stable growth. There were positive developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations, including talks and a phone call between the leaders. On September 25, A - shares showed a mixed performance, and domestic commodity futures generally rose [1]. US Economic Situation - The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, but new orders improved, and the price index declined again. The CPI increased year - on - year, while the PPI growth rate declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot shows a more conservative outlook on future rate cuts than the market. There are deepening differences within the Fed on future monetary policy paths, and the US is facing a potential government shutdown [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints, and a major copper mine accident may reduce production. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term. In the chemical sector, some products have "anti - involution" potential. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental support. Precious metals are expected to strengthen due to de - dollarization and the interest - rate cut cycle [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals on dips in the commodity and stock index futures markets [4]. Key News - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, while the ChiNext Index rose over 1.5%. US new - home sales reached a new high, and the second - quarter GDP growth rate was revised up. There were statements from Fed officials on interest - rate policies. The US government may shut down, and there were developments in US - EU trade agreements and new trade investigations. US EIA crude oil inventories decreased [5].