Report Summary - The new Yalta system has been substantially established, with the global governance plan divided into two parts: the US's "New Monroe Doctrine" leads to strategic contraction, while China's "Community with a Shared Future for Mankind" emphasizes unity with Southern countries [1]. - In the bipolar world order, five global trends are worth noting: supply chain regionalization, debt - driven growth, political right - shift in the Western world, the decline of the US dollar hegemony, and the decreasing strategic significance of the First Island Chain and the First Continental Chain. Long - term optimism is held for precious metals and industrial metals, and pessimism for the US dollar [2]. - In 2026, three macro - events need attention: Sino - US economic and trade relaxation, the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine war, and the US mid - term elections. For China, exports may still be the economic highlight [3]. Group 1: Evolution of the Yalta System - After WWI, the global political pattern evolved through four stages: the "Versailles System" (1919 - 1939), the "Yalta System" (1945 - 1991), the "Post - Yalta Era" (1991 - 2024), and the "New Yalta System" starting from 2025 [19][23][25]. - The new Yalta system is characterized by the division of governance between China and the US. The US has shifted from strategic expansion to strategic contraction, and the global governance plan has changed from one in the old Yalta system to two [33][36]. Group 2: US Strategic Contraction - The US officially entered the strategic contraction phase during Trump's first term. Trump's "America First Strategy" is a return to realism and the protection of national interests [41]. - The meaning of G2 has changed. In the Obama era, it implied a "subordinate relationship" between the US and China, while in the Trump era, it implies a more "divide - and - rule" approach [49]. - Trump is more like Nixon than Reagan as he tries to seize power from Wall Street financial capital. He pretends to be like Reagan to gain capital support [54]. - Although Trump may cause political and social unrest in the US, he is unlikely to become the US's Gorbachev. If he changes the US's economic foundation, he may be a "hero" for the US [56]. - Trump's actions have led to the deterioration of the US's internal order, including the qualitative change of the two - party system, the failure of the separation of powers, and the continuous testing of the president's power boundaries [61][64]. - Trump's "New Monroe Doctrine" has led to the reconstruction of the global order. The US focuses on domestic affairs, strongly controls neighboring countries, maintains a surface - level control over Latin America, and retreats from Western Hemisphere allies [70]. Group 3: Long - term Trends in the Bipolar World - Supply chain regionalization will lead to one pole being unable to get out of inflation and the other out of deflation [84]. - The global economy will enter a debt - driven growth phase, with fiscal expansion as a long - term trend. Monetary policy will become subordinate to fiscal policy [87]. - The political spectrum in the Western world has shifted to the right since 2021, while the Eastern camp remains relatively stable [95]. - The US dollar hegemony is in decline. The US is trying to solve the US debt liquidity problem by issuing US debt stablecoins, but this may lead to the collapse of the US dollar credit in the long run [103]. - The strategic significance of the First Island Chain and the First Continental Chain is decreasing, and the economic integration of Northeast Asia is irresistible [111]. Group 4: Key Macro - events in 2026 - There will be a one - year window period for Sino - US economic and trade relaxation. The US will accelerate the independence of rare earth and chip supply chains, and China will accelerate the autonomy of high - end chip supply chains [3]. - The Russia - Ukraine war may end, with the US and Russia jointly reaping benefits from Ukraine. Russia's possible entry into the G8 does not necessarily mean it is unfavorable to China [3]. - In the US mid - term elections, the president's party is likely to lose the House of Representatives, which will hinder policy implementation and intensify partisan opposition [3]. - For China, exports may still be the economic highlight in 2026, driven by the repair of the trade environment, European re - armament, and post - war reconstruction in Russia and Ukraine [3]. Group 5: Asset Judgments - Long - term optimism is held for precious metals and industrial metals, and pessimism for the US dollar. A cautious view is taken on oil prices [117].

文章来源于：智堡Mikko 本文是笔者基于自身美元体系研究的一些反思，文章更多地是在向内发问，而不是对时下问题的求解， 简言之，我没有答案 。 一些脱离实际的内容纯属本人 YY 虚构，欢迎探讨。 起源 当下的全球经济与货币体系是美式全球化的造物，在摆脱黄金的限制以后，美式全球化运行在 三个关键机制 之上： 美元作为单一的主导货币，美国的需求作为全球经济的增长来源。简言之，美国 生产货币 ，非美 囤积货币 ；美国 出口需求 ，非美 出口供给 。这形成了 巨量的 双边贸易流动 。 得益于金融（银行）的自由度以及纯信用货币的扩张能力，美元体系在 资本流动不受限制 的前提下渗透至全球，美元信贷/存款、美元资产/负债链接起美国与非 美经济体，形成 巨量的双边资本流动 。 美国作为美元区的管理者，作为国际秩序的主导者（ 霸主/爹味 ）。 现如今，美元体系中充斥着各类天文数字，这些数字已经超出了美国本土经济的体量。这是因为 非美经济体的高增长（收入）需求和资产配置需求（远期/定期的 美元收入），都需要基于美元体量的持续扩张来完成 。 随着柏林墙的倒塌与中国入世，美式全球化迎来了巨量适龄劳动人口的涌入，区域内的美元劳动收入向 ...

美国作为美元区的管理者，作为国际秩序的主导者（ 霸主/爹味 ）。 现如今，美元体系中充斥着各类天文数字，这些数字已经超出了美国本土经济的体量。这是因为 非美经济体的高增长（收入）需求和资产配置需求（远期/定期的 美元收入），都需要基于美元体量的持续扩张来完成 。 文章来源于：智堡Mikko 本文是笔者基于自身美元体系研究的一些反思，文章更多地是在向内发问，而不是对时下问题的求解， 简言之，我没有答案 。 一些脱离实际的内容纯属本人 YY 虚构，欢迎探讨。 起源 当下的全球经济与货币体系是美式全球化的造物，在摆脱黄金的限制以后，美式全球化运行在 三个关键机制 之上： 美元作为单一的主导货币，美国的需求作为全球经济的增长来源。简言之，美国 生产货币 ，非美 囤积货币 ；美国 出口需求 ，非美 出口供给 。这形成了 巨量的 双边贸易流动 。 得益于金融（银行）的自由度以及纯信用货币的扩张能力，美元体系在 资本流动不受限制 的前提下渗透至全球，美元信贷/存款、美元资产/负债链接起美国与非 美经济体，形成 巨量的双边资本流动 。 随着柏林墙的倒塌与中国入世，美式全球化迎来了巨量适龄劳动人口的涌入，区域内的美元劳动收入向 ...