Report Summary - The new Yalta system has been substantially established, with the global governance plan divided into two parts: the US's "New Monroe Doctrine" leads to strategic contraction, while China's "Community with a Shared Future for Mankind" emphasizes unity with Southern countries [1]. - In the bipolar world order, five global trends are worth noting: supply chain regionalization, debt - driven growth, political right - shift in the Western world, the decline of the US dollar hegemony, and the decreasing strategic significance of the First Island Chain and the First Continental Chain. Long - term optimism is held for precious metals and industrial metals, and pessimism for the US dollar [2]. - In 2026, three macro - events need attention: Sino - US economic and trade relaxation, the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine war, and the US mid - term elections. For China, exports may still be the economic highlight [3]. Group 1: Evolution of the Yalta System - After WWI, the global political pattern evolved through four stages: the "Versailles System" (1919 - 1939), the "Yalta System" (1945 - 1991), the "Post - Yalta Era" (1991 - 2024), and the "New Yalta System" starting from 2025 [19][23][25]. - The new Yalta system is characterized by the division of governance between China and the US. The US has shifted from strategic expansion to strategic contraction, and the global governance plan has changed from one in the old Yalta system to two [33][36]. Group 2: US Strategic Contraction - The US officially entered the strategic contraction phase during Trump's first term. Trump's "America First Strategy" is a return to realism and the protection of national interests [41]. - The meaning of G2 has changed. In the Obama era, it implied a "subordinate relationship" between the US and China, while in the Trump era, it implies a more "divide - and - rule" approach [49]. - Trump is more like Nixon than Reagan as he tries to seize power from Wall Street financial capital. He pretends to be like Reagan to gain capital support [54]. - Although Trump may cause political and social unrest in the US, he is unlikely to become the US's Gorbachev. If he changes the US's economic foundation, he may be a "hero" for the US [56]. - Trump's actions have led to the deterioration of the US's internal order, including the qualitative change of the two - party system, the failure of the separation of powers, and the continuous testing of the president's power boundaries [61][64]. - Trump's "New Monroe Doctrine" has led to the reconstruction of the global order. The US focuses on domestic affairs, strongly controls neighboring countries, maintains a surface - level control over Latin America, and retreats from Western Hemisphere allies [70]. Group 3: Long - term Trends in the Bipolar World - Supply chain regionalization will lead to one pole being unable to get out of inflation and the other out of deflation [84]. - The global economy will enter a debt - driven growth phase, with fiscal expansion as a long - term trend. Monetary policy will become subordinate to fiscal policy [87]. - The political spectrum in the Western world has shifted to the right since 2021, while the Eastern camp remains relatively stable [95]. - The US dollar hegemony is in decline. The US is trying to solve the US debt liquidity problem by issuing US debt stablecoins, but this may lead to the collapse of the US dollar credit in the long run [103]. - The strategic significance of the First Island Chain and the First Continental Chain is decreasing, and the economic integration of Northeast Asia is irresistible [111]. Group 4: Key Macro - events in 2026 - There will be a one - year window period for Sino - US economic and trade relaxation. The US will accelerate the independence of rare earth and chip supply chains, and China will accelerate the autonomy of high - end chip supply chains [3]. - The Russia - Ukraine war may end, with the US and Russia jointly reaping benefits from Ukraine. Russia's possible entry into the G8 does not necessarily mean it is unfavorable to China [3]. - In the US mid - term elections, the president's party is likely to lose the House of Representatives, which will hinder policy implementation and intensify partisan opposition [3]. - For China, exports may still be the economic highlight in 2026, driven by the repair of the trade environment, European re - armament, and post - war reconstruction in Russia and Ukraine [3]. Group 5: Asset Judgments - Long - term optimism is held for precious metals and industrial metals, and pessimism for the US dollar. A cautious view is taken on oil prices [117].

Group 1: Global Economic Environment - The global economy is entering a new phase characterized by high volatility and low growth, with significant uncertainties impacting traditional pricing logic [2][4] - Key structural contradictions include population aging, national debt issues, and geopolitical tensions, which are constraining economic growth [2][4] - The rise of artificial intelligence and technological innovations is expected to take decades to fully impact economic vitality, despite their potential to drive growth [2][4] Group 2: Asset Pricing and Investment Strategies - Asset prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, necessitating heightened risk awareness among investors [3][4] - Gold and silver are highlighted as crucial components of the global monetary system, with gold prices having increased approximately sevenfold since 2005 [5][11] - The current geopolitical landscape is reshaping the G2 dynamics between the US and China, influencing capital flows and asset allocation strategies [5][6] Group 3: US Policy Impact - The Trump administration's tariff policies have evolved from targeted measures to a broader global trade conflict, impacting market dynamics and investor sentiment [7][8] - The combination of tax reforms and tariff policies is expected to generate significant government revenue, but the long-term economic implications remain uncertain [9][10] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Trends - The weakening of the US dollar is anticipated, driven by structural issues and a decline in trust among global investors [11][12] - Central banks are increasingly diversifying their reserves by accumulating gold, reflecting a shift in confidence away from the dollar [11][12] - The price of gold is projected to continue rising, with significant increases expected from 2024 onwards, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [11][12] Group 5: Technological Revolution and Asset Valuation - The advent of artificial intelligence is expected to fundamentally reshape economic theories and asset valuation models [15][16] - The emergence of Web3 and tokenization technologies is poised to transform financial infrastructures and redefine value creation mechanisms [16][17] - Traditional asset pricing frameworks are under pressure, with significant disparities expected between sectors and asset classes [17] Group 6: Investment Outlook - Chinese assets are seen as undervalued, with potential for systemic revaluation supported by policy changes and economic fundamentals [18][19] - Growth sectors such as technology and innovative pharmaceuticals are highlighted as areas of opportunity, while traditional markets face challenges [19][20] - Gold is recommended as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, with its role as a safe-haven asset becoming increasingly relevant [19][21]