Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent rebound of the US dollar index suppresses the upward space of copper prices. If the 50% tariff on copper starts on August 1st, the subsequent arbitrage channel will close, export demand will sharply decrease, and inventory will start to accumulate, with the market trend being bearish. Currently, the market is mainly volatile as there are many uncertainties regarding the copper tariff [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The copper market opened high and weakened during the day. The issue of the Fed's interest - rate cut remains uncertain, and the proposed tariff on copper may extend the Fed's wait - and - see period. As of July 4, 2025, the spot smelting fee is - 43.31 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee is - 4.31 cents per pound. The expected supply shortage may improve. As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1363500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80800 tons (+6.30%). July is expected to be a seasonal consumption off - season [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and weakened during the day, closing at 78700. The long positions of the top 20 were 118651 lots, an increase of 2530 lots; the short positions were 115777 lots, a decrease of 3320 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 40 yuan per ton, and in South China was - 30 yuan per ton. On July 10, 2025, the LME official price was 9742 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 10 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of July 4, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.31 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.31 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 23300 tons, a decrease of 9478 tons from the previous period. As of July 10, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 67100 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 108700 tons, a slight increase of 625 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 231100 short tons, an increase of 7736 short tons from the previous period [9].