昨日FU盘面出现大幅上涨，从背后驱动因素来看：一方面，原油价格在连续回调后反弹，对能源板块品种形成一 定提振；另一方面，站在燃料油自身基本面的角度，近期有边际改善的迹象，随着中东燃料油出口回落、炼厂端 需求小幅修复、伊朗与俄罗斯供应分别受到制裁与无人机袭击影响，燃料油供应压力有所缓和，裂解价差、月差、 现货贴水回升。此外，前日大鼎库（2.991万吨）仓单全部注销，FU仓单压力减轻，带动内外盘价差走阔，FU结构 受到额外支撑。 低硫燃料油方面，目前市场矛盾相对有限。近期尼日利亚Dangote炼厂由于RFCC装置停工而增加低硫燃料油出口， 关于装置重启暂时还没有确切消息，因此局部供应增量或持续。但与此同时，9月份西区套利船货量下滑，国产量 维持中低位，汽柴油溢价偏强分流低硫油组分，整体供应压力有限。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期向下 低硫方面：短期中性，中期向下 跨品种：无 跨期：逢低多FU2511-2512价差（正套） 期现：无 期权：无 燃料油日报 | 2025-09-25 高硫燃料油市场结构边际走强 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.7%，报2860元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Domestic downstream procurement is difficult to improve, and the spot discount continues to widen under rigid - demand procurement. The domestic and foreign contradiction pattern persists, with overseas inventory continuously decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, but the overseas situation provides favorable price support. [4] Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $17.62/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,090 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 70 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,060 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 100 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,080 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On September 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,160 yuan/ton and closed at 22,215 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 83,724 lots, and the open interest was 103,054 lots. The highest price was 22,245 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,110 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of September 10, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 152,100 tons, a change of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 50,825 tons, a change of - 200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Domestic downstream procurement is difficult to improve, and the spot discount continues to widen. The domestic and foreign contradiction pattern persists, with overseas inventory decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with domestic TC slightly decreasing in September. The domestic smelting profit still exists, and the supply pressure is high. In August, zinc ingot production increased by 28% year - on - year. The overseas situation provides favorable price support, with a good macro - environment, supply contraction, and potential squeeze - out risk [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The rating for both unilateral and arbitrage strategies is neutral [6] 2. Core View - Domestic apparent consumption of zinc maintains high - speed growth but cannot offset supply pressure, leading to continuous expansion of social inventory. Zinc prices show a weak and volatile trend, with the spot discount widening. There is a contradictory situation between domestic and overseas markets, with overseas inventory continuously decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are still weak, but overseas factors provide favorable price support [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $16.46 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,190 yuan per ton, with a change of 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 65 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,160 yuan per ton, with a change of 40 yuan per ton and a spot premium of - 95 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,170 yuan per ton, with a change of 40 yuan per ton and a spot premium of - 85 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On September 9, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22,245 yuan per ton and closed at 22,125 yuan per ton, a decrease of 120 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 100,465 lots, and the open interest was 108,199 lots. The highest price was 22,265 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,115 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 152,100 tons, a change of 3,200 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 51,025 tons, a change of - 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Domestic consumption growth is high - speed but can't counter supply pressure, resulting in continuous inventory build - up. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with domestic TC slightly decreasing in September but still having cost - effectiveness, and import TC expected to rise. Domestic smelting profit exists, and supply pressure is large, with an 28% year - on - year increase in zinc ingot production in August. In the consumption peak season, inventory build - up is likely. Overseas, the macro - environment is positive, zinc supply contracts, consumption is stable, inventory is decreasing, the discount is narrowing, and there is a risk of a short squeeze [5] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: A short - position variety among non - ferrous metals. [6] 2. Core View - The current macro sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities show a strong trend. However, the zinc spot market is under pressure from increasing inventory, with a slight expansion of the spot discount. The smelting profit remains high, and the supply pressure persists. The domestic inventory build - up is expected even in the consumption peak season, and if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure, while the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5] 3. Summary by Category Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is - $2.95/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 40 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 65 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 60 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,355 yuan/ton, closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 93,174 lots, and the open interest was 108,718 lots. The highest price was 22,395 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,245 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 26, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 138,500 tons, a change of 5,600 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 65,525 tons, a change of - 2,550 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - **Macro and Spot**: The current macro sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities are strong. In the zinc spot market, due to continuous inventory increase, the spot discount slightly expands, and traders have difficulty maintaining prices, with weak downstream purchasing sentiment. [5] - **Cost**: The import TC is rising, with the general ore quote reaching $110/ton. Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. [5] - **Smelting**: With by - product revenue, the industry's smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton. Zinc price decline has little impact on smelting profit, and smelting enthusiasm remains high, with unchanged current and expected supply - side pressure. [5] - **Consumption**: Even during the consumption peak season, the domestic inventory build - up is expected. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5]