以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者全球资产配置团队 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 长端日债利率上行归因与套息交易后续展望 ——全球资产配置热点聚焦系列之二十九 金倩婧/冯晓宇/林遵东/涂锦文/王胜 本期投资提示： 事件：2025年5月20日，日本财务省发行的1万亿日元20年期国债拍卖中，投标倍数跌至2.5倍 （2012年以来最低），尾差（中标价与最低接受价差距）飙升至1.14（1987年以来最高），随 后30年日债利率大幅上升至2.74%，带动30Y-10Y日债利差大幅上行至126BP（目前处于2000年 以来的99.3%分位数），日本国债的期限结构显著陡峭化。 日本长期国债利率大幅上行的核心原因来自：1）2023年以来日本就业市场持续回暖，薪资增速 快速上升带动通胀上行，日央行加息周期中全期限日债利率处于上行通道。 2021年以来日本经 济中就业市场逐步回暖，其中日本失业率快速下行，而劳动参与率趋势性提高，导致2023年以 来日本劳动组织总联合会春斗的工资涨幅大幅上升，另外疫情之后日本服务业PMI持续维持在 繁荣区间，所以日本通胀趋势性上行，连续两年超过日央行的通胀目标区间（2%）。为了应对 通 ...

Group 1 - The core reason for the significant rise in long-term Japanese bond yields is attributed to the recovery of the Japanese labor market and the subsequent increase in wage growth, which has driven inflation upward. The unemployment rate in Japan has been declining rapidly, and the labor participation rate has been increasing, leading to a substantial rise in wage growth since 2023 [14][19][20] - The issuance of 1 trillion yen 20-year government bonds on May 20, 2025, saw a bid-to-cover ratio drop to 2.5 times, the lowest since 2012, and a tail difference that surged to 1.14, the highest since 1987. This resulted in a significant increase in the 30-year Japanese bond yield to 2.74%, causing the 30Y-10Y yield spread to rise sharply to 126 basis points, placing it in the 99.3 percentile since 2000 [3][8][14] Group 2 - The short-term outlook suggests that the upcoming auctions of 40-year, 10-year, and 30-year Japanese government bonds from May 28 to June 5 may lead to further increases in yield spreads due to heightened liquidity risks in the long-term bond market and sustained high inflation levels [30][31] - The Bank of Japan's actions in mid-June will be crucial for the trajectory of Japanese bond yields, as they aim to balance currency appreciation, economic recovery, and normalization of the bond market [31][32] Group 3 - The current state of carry trade is influenced by the ongoing dynamics between Japanese and U.S. bond markets. Despite the significant rise in Japanese bond yields, the 10Y U.S.-Japan yield spread has remained relatively stable, indicating that carry trade opportunities still exist [34][38] - If the 10Y Japanese bond yield rises faster than the 10Y U.S. bond yield, it could lead to increased volatility in global bond and equity markets, as the interconnectedness of developed market yields may trigger a broader rise in rates [48][50]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" on global markets and the responses from countries like Europe, Canada, and Japan [1] - It highlights the need for better understanding of U.S. policies from a global perspective, emphasizing the cultural and political differences that create an "information gap" [1] - The introduction of the "New York Talk" series aims to bridge this gap by providing insights into the financial world through expert analysis [1] Group 2 - Guo Shengbei, the founder of GSB Award Fund, has a background in computer science and has transitioned from a technical role to a prominent figure in finance [2][3] - His career began at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo during the early 1990s, where he capitalized on the market's volatility and gained significant experience [4][5] - Guo's tenure at Deutsche Bank from 1997 to 2009 was marked by consistent profitability and successful navigation through major financial crises [8][9] Group 3 - In 2010, Guo established his own hedge fund, focusing on quantitative trading strategies, which required him to adapt from a specialist to a more versatile role [10][11] - His insights into the Chinese market led to recognition from major institutions, resulting in leadership roles at Citic Securities and other firms [11][12] - Guo's return to New York in 2022 marks a new chapter in his career, as he aims to leverage his extensive experience in the hedge fund industry [13] Group 4 - The "New York Talk" series has received positive feedback for its unique teaching style and rigorous logical reasoning, fostering discussions among investors [25] - Guo's predictions regarding market trends, such as the impact of currency swaps on liquidity and the implications of Trump's tariffs, demonstrate his analytical prowess [18][22] - The upcoming second season of "New York Talk" will continue to provide insights into the U.S. economy and Wall Street trading logic [25]