来源：21世纪经济报道 肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 8月18日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1322，较上一个交易日官方收盘价上调49点。同期离岸人民币开盘 价为7.1832，环比上调81点。 在美联储降息预期持续强化、科技研发实力推动中国资产价值重构等多项因素叠加之下，人民币计价资 产在全球的吸引力日益递增，这推动了人民币的升值。 其次，认为中美之间会签署一个类似于"广场协议"，施压人民币升值之类的判断更是臆想。最新消息显 示，中美将关税"休战期"延长了90天。中美贸易谈判左右不了人民币汇率市场化改革的进程。 实际上，虽然汇率的形成机制错综复杂，但在国际金融学科也有一个普遍共识，那就是没有任何一种汇 率安排适合一个国家的所有时期。对于一个大国经济体来说，根据经济发展的阶段性需要和现实的内外 部条件约束，"以我为主"才是最优。 所以对于人民币汇率形成机制来说，如何进行动态的调整以更好满足我国经济发展阶段的需要就成为了 一道必答题，尤其是在本轮美联储加息周期中，市场主体基于中美利差而选择的"资产美元化+负债本 币化"财务操作，不仅对人民币汇率保持稳定形成了较大压力，也影响了国内货币政策的传导 ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis of Spot Gold - The US ADP employment increased by only 37,000 in May, significantly below the expected 110,000, indicating a weakening economic growth momentum [2] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.187% in April to 4.244% in May, suggesting a decline in the labor market [2] - The manufacturing sector faced challenges with a reduction of 8,000 jobs, the largest drop this year, reflecting issues in the economic structure and potentially increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The consumer price index rose by 2.3% year-on-year as of April, leading investors to buy gold as a hedge against inflation [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Spot Gold - The price of spot gold rebounded from a low to a high of 3338.25 before retreating to around 3325.50 USD/oz, indicating a short-term downtrend [3] - The current technical pattern suggests a trading strategy where investors should consider short positions near the resistance level of 3340.00, with a stop-loss at 3377.00 and a take-profit at 3273.00 [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Spot Silver - Spot silver prices continued to rise, currently quoted at 36.800, with a clear upward trend observed in the 1H chart [5] - The technical analysis recommends waiting for a price pullback to the support level of 36.340 to open long positions, with a stop-loss at 35.960 and a take-profit at 36.850 [5]

Group 1 - The current interest rate environment, with rates above 5%, is creating both challenges and opportunities in the market, particularly affecting growth stock valuations in the US and liquidity in Hong Kong stocks [1][3] - Companies with strong cash flow, such as subscription-based software firms and industrial giants, are well-positioned to navigate the current economic climate, with Microsoft averaging over $60 billion in operating cash flow annually over the past three years [3] - In the Hong Kong market, investors should focus on "interest rate immune" stocks, such as Macau gaming stocks, which are benefiting from consumer recovery and have already absorbed pressure from dollar-denominated debt [3] Group 2 - Asset allocation strategies should involve a "dynamic balancing" approach, increasing exposure to high-dividend Hong Kong state-owned enterprises when US Treasury yields rise, and gradually shifting to US biotech stocks when interest rate expectations ease [3][5] - Currency fluctuations can be leveraged as a tool for investment, with Hong Kong dollar-denominated assets providing natural hedging advantages, such as Southeast Asian REITs listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3] - Investors are encouraged to view the interest rate cycle as a stress test for their portfolios, utilizing intelligent allocation systems to identify valuation discrepancies across markets, such as the historical dividend premium of Hong Kong telecom giants [5]