文/冉学东 12月16日，美元对人民币中间价下调至7.0602，下调54个基点，美元对人民币中间价从本月初的 7.0759，半个月的时间里下行达157个基点。 以上陡峭下行，引导人民币汇率持续升值，在离岸人民币市场上，12月16日，人民币升破7.04关口，本 月连破7.06、7.05、7.04等大关，市场人士预计，人民币还将继续升值，可能在明年上半年破7。 对于人民币目前的陡峭升值，有一个数据具有强支撑力，这就是今年以来的贸易顺差。 11月的外贸顺差按美元计同比增长5.9%。不仅一改10月下滑的颓势，且将今年前11月的累计顺差推升 至超1万亿美元，这是历史上首次。今年是中国最强出口年，进口也连续6个月正增长。尽管国内需求不 足，但正值海外需求强劲，强劲的出口无疑是支撑中国经济的底气，也是影响人民币汇率的最大因素。 疫情以后中国出口爆发式增长，此后每年都为外贸愁，但是外贸格局仍然是出口增速远超进口增速，从 出口结构看，机电产品作为出口主力，前11个月出口额增长8.8%，占出口总值的60.9%。其中，集成电 路出口增长25.6%，汽车出口增长17.6%，高附加值产品占比增加，低附加值的出口已经远去了，更加 令人欣 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12月4日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0733，上调21点。升值至2024年10月14日以来最高。 美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为89% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为89%，维持利率不变的概率为11%。美联储到 明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为64.8%，维持利率不变的概率为7.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 27.6%。 潘功胜：不断完善人民币汇率形成机制 中国人民银行行长潘功胜在人民日报发表署名文章《构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审 慎管理体系（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》指出，不断完善人民币汇率形成机制。我国是大型 开放经济体，要坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，保持汇率弹性，发挥好汇率调节宏观经济和国际 收支自动稳定器功能，为自主、有效实施货币政策创造有利条件。同时，坚持底线思维，强化预期引 导，坚决防范汇率超调风险。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为89%，维持利率不变的概率为11%。美联储到 明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为64.8%，维持利率不变的概 ...

中国人民银行行长潘功胜在人民日报发表署名文章《构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审 慎管理体系（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》指出，不断完善人民币汇率形成机制。我国是大型 开放经济体，要坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，保持汇率弹性，发挥好汇率调节宏观经济和国际 收支自动稳定器功能，为自主、有效实施货币政策创造有利条件。同时，坚持底线思维，强化预期引 导，坚决防范汇率超调风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to better combine currency stability and financial stability, which is crucial for supporting the construction of a financial powerhouse [1][6]. Monetary Policy System - The monetary policy system is described as the "first pillar" and is relatively mature, focusing on optimizing the base currency issuance mechanism and maintaining reasonable growth in financial totals [1][3]. - There is a need to enhance the role of central bank policy rates, narrow the width of the short-term interest rate corridor, and improve the transmission from central bank policy rates to market benchmark rates [3][4]. - The system aims to achieve a dynamic balance among currency stability, economic growth, full employment, and international balance of payments [3][4]. Macro-Prudential Management System - The macro-prudential management system is referred to as the "second pillar," which requires gradual improvement and close coordination with monetary policy [1][2]. - It aims to observe, assess, and respond to financial risks from a macro, counter-cyclical, and contagion perspective, preventing systemic financial risks that could disrupt macro stability [6][7]. - Key tasks include strengthening the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, implementing risk prevention measures in critical areas, and enriching the policy toolbox for macro-prudential management [6][7][8]. Policy Tools and Framework - The article highlights the need to enrich the policy toolbox for macro-prudential management, focusing on areas such as systemically important financial institutions, broad credit, real estate finance, and cross-border capital flows [2][5][7]. - A standardized and systematic framework for macro-prudential monitoring and assessment is essential to identify and evaluate representative risks and weaknesses [6][7]. - The construction of a financial stability guarantee system is crucial, emphasizing the importance of corporate governance and risk management within financial institutions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to better combine currency stability and financial stability, which is crucial for supporting the construction of a financial powerhouse [1][2]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy System - The monetary policy system is described as the "first pillar" and is relatively mature, while macro-prudential management, the "second pillar," requires gradual improvement and close coordination with monetary policy [1]. - Key tasks for constructing a robust monetary policy system include optimizing the mechanism for basic currency issuance, maintaining reasonable growth in financial totals, and enhancing the role of central bank policy rates [3][4]. - The article outlines five main aspects to advance the monetary policy system: 1. Optimize the basic currency issuance mechanism and maintain adequate liquidity in the banking system to meet the financing needs of the real economy [3]. 2. Improve the market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, narrowing the width of the short-term interest rate corridor [4]. 3. Develop a structural monetary policy tool system to address structural contradictions in the economy [4]. 4. Enhance the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism to maintain exchange rate flexibility and prevent excessive fluctuations [4]. 5. Ensure smooth transmission of monetary policy and improve the effectiveness of policy implementation [5]. Macro-Prudential Management System - The macro-prudential management system aims to observe, assess, and respond to financial risks from a macro and counter-cyclical perspective, preventing systemic financial risks that could disrupt macro stability [6]. - Key tasks for constructing a comprehensive macro-prudential management system include: 1. Strengthening the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks through a standardized framework [6]. 2. Implementing risk prevention measures in key areas to prevent significant fluctuations in critical sectors from impacting economic development [7]. 3. Enriching the policy toolbox for macro-prudential management, focusing on areas like systemically important financial institutions and cross-border capital flows [7]. 4. Building a financial stability guarantee system that enhances corporate governance and risk management in financial institutions [8]. 5. Strengthening financial security capabilities in line with the level of openness, promoting the internationalization of the RMB, and participating in global financial governance [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to better combine currency stability and financial stability, which is crucial for supporting the construction of a financial powerhouse [1][2]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy System - The monetary policy system aims to dynamically achieve an optimal combination of currency stability, economic growth, full employment, and balance of international payments, thereby promoting financial stability from the source [4]. - Key tasks for constructing this system include: - Optimizing the mechanism for basic currency issuance and monetary policy intermediaries to maintain reasonable growth in financial totals [4]. - Establishing a market-oriented interest rate formation, regulation, and transmission mechanism, enhancing the role of central bank policy rates, and narrowing the width of the short-term interest rate corridor [4]. - Improving the structural monetary policy tool system to address structural contradictions in economic operations [5]. - Continuously improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism to maintain exchange rate flexibility and support effective monetary policy implementation [5]. - Ensuring smooth transmission of monetary policy by enhancing the effectiveness of policy implementation and coordination with fiscal and industrial policies [5]. Macro-Prudential Management System - The macro-prudential management system aims to observe, assess, and respond to financial risks from a macro, counter-cyclical, and contagion perspective, taking appropriate measures to prevent systemic financial risks [7]. - Key tasks for this system include: - Strengthening the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks through a standardized and systematic framework [8]. - Implementing comprehensive risk prevention measures in key areas to prevent significant fluctuations in critical sectors from impacting high-quality economic and financial development [8]. - Enriching the policy toolbox for macro-prudential management based on monitoring and analysis results [9]. - Building a financial stability guarantee system by enhancing corporate governance and risk management of financial institutions [9]. - Strengthening financial security capabilities in line with the level of openness, promoting orderly financial service industry and market reforms [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and highlights the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility to support effective monetary policy implementation [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework - The People's Bank of China aims to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system alongside a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework [1] - The article advocates for the decisive role of the market in the exchange rate formation process, particularly for a large open economy like China [1] Group 2: Exchange Rate Management - It is essential to maintain exchange rate flexibility to utilize it as an automatic stabilizer for macroeconomic adjustments and international balance of payments [1] - The article stresses the importance of bottom-line thinking and enhancing expectation management to prevent excessive exchange rate fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and maintaining exchange rate flexibility to support effective monetary policy implementation [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China aims to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system [1] - The article highlights the need for a comprehensive macro-prudential management system [1] Group 2: Exchange Rate Management - It is essential to uphold the decisive role of the market in the exchange rate formation process [1] - The article stresses the importance of using the exchange rate as an automatic stabilizer for macroeconomic and international balance of payments [1] - There is a call for reinforcing expectation guidance and preventing risks of excessive exchange rate adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The central point of the article highlights the recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, driven by factors such as expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the strengthening of China's asset values [1][2] - The RMB's exchange rate is expected to exhibit two-way fluctuations while maintaining stability, as indicated by the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) recent monetary policy report [1][2] - The RMB exchange rate formation mechanism has played a significant role in stabilizing market expectations, particularly during periods of strong appreciation [2][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the complexities of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, emphasizing that no single arrangement suits all periods for a large economy [3] - It suggests that dynamic adjustments to the RMB exchange rate mechanism are necessary to meet the evolving needs of China's economic development [3] - The anticipated internationalization of the RMB and the introduction of more hedging tools, such as foreign exchange futures and options, are seen as potential directions for future market-oriented reforms of the exchange rate mechanism [3]

Group 1: Global Economic Landscape - The world is evolving towards a diversified structure, with the potential for the RMB to be less pressured if the USD enters a long-term weakening phase [4] - The dominance of the USD is seen as a product of historical circumstances, and its status is being challenged by geopolitical events and changing global dynamics [4][5] - The RMB's exchange rate mechanism should be more flexible and less influenced by external factors, allowing for adjustments based on domestic conditions [5] Group 2: Investment Trends in China - There is a long-term trend of increasing global asset allocation towards Chinese assets, driven by policy shifts that support economic growth and private enterprise [6][7] - The current high proportion of US assets in global allocations does not align with the emerging multipolar world, but international capital is beginning to adjust [7] - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting indicated a balanced policy approach, which could stabilize market expectations and support long-term development [8] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting did not explicitly mention interest rate cuts, focusing instead on maintaining liquidity and managing local government debt [9] - The real estate market remains under pressure, and without strong policy intervention, downward pressure may increase [8][9] Group 4: Trade and Tariff Implications - The impact of US tariffs is diminishing, with recent agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU potentially leading to reduced trade costs and lower market uncertainty [15] - The evolving tariff agreements may serve as a model for other countries, suggesting a trend towards more flexible trade negotiations [15] Group 5: Investment in Gold - Caution is advised regarding excessive investment in gold as a safe-haven asset, as current valuations are high and could lead to risks [12][13] - Geopolitical tensions may support gold prices, but potential ceasefires could create downward pressure [13]