Group 1: Global Economic Landscape - The world is evolving towards a diversified structure, with the potential for the RMB to be less pressured if the USD enters a long-term weakening phase [4] - The dominance of the USD is seen as a product of historical circumstances, and its status is being challenged by geopolitical events and changing global dynamics [4][5] - The RMB's exchange rate mechanism should be more flexible and less influenced by external factors, allowing for adjustments based on domestic conditions [5] Group 2: Investment Trends in China - There is a long-term trend of increasing global asset allocation towards Chinese assets, driven by policy shifts that support economic growth and private enterprise [6][7] - The current high proportion of US assets in global allocations does not align with the emerging multipolar world, but international capital is beginning to adjust [7] - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting indicated a balanced policy approach, which could stabilize market expectations and support long-term development [8] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting did not explicitly mention interest rate cuts, focusing instead on maintaining liquidity and managing local government debt [9] - The real estate market remains under pressure, and without strong policy intervention, downward pressure may increase [8][9] Group 4: Trade and Tariff Implications - The impact of US tariffs is diminishing, with recent agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU potentially leading to reduced trade costs and lower market uncertainty [15] - The evolving tariff agreements may serve as a model for other countries, suggesting a trend towards more flexible trade negotiations [15] Group 5: Investment in Gold - Caution is advised regarding excessive investment in gold as a safe-haven asset, as current valuations are high and could lead to risks [12][13] - Geopolitical tensions may support gold prices, but potential ceasefires could create downward pressure [13]

外资机构如何看待当前世界格局？又将如何影响对中国资产的配置？美国关税政策将如何影 响全球经济？为回答这些问题，中国基金报记者独家专访了贝莱德首席中国经济学家宋宇。 贝莱德是全球规模最大的资产管理集团之一，截至 2025 年二季度末，贝莱德在全球管理的 总资产管理规模达12.5万亿美元。 【导读】贝莱德首席中国经济学家宋宇：多元化格局下，全球提升中国资产配置将是长期趋 势 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 世界正向多元化格局演变 人民币汇率形成机制"以我为主" 宋宇认为，若美元进入长期走弱通道，人民币压力将显著减轻。他建议，国家在制定"十五 五"计划时，应从更深层次去考虑制度安排，使汇率形成机制"以我为主"。 宋宇解释说，美元走势存在诸多不确定性。例如，俄乌冲突爆发后，俄罗斯海外资产被美欧 冻结，这无异于"变相违约"。美国的长期国家信用被损害，全球投资者持有美债的信心被削 弱，美元地位动摇。 他指出，美元的全球主导地位是特殊历史时期的"特殊产物"——二战结束后美国依托其远超 其他国家的实力，在全球政治、军事、金融体系构建霸权。美元地位空前显著。宋宇说："不 过，特朗普政府不愿再承担全球霸权的成本。他缩减海外驻军开支，各种 ...