Group 1 - The gold market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations, opening at 3337 and reaching a high of 3348 before closing at 3335, reflecting a weekly decline of 1.7% [3] - The daily chart indicates a downward C wave within a triangle convergence pattern, with MACD showing a bearish crossover and increasing bearish momentum [3] - Short-term resistance is noted at the 3375-3370 range, while support is identified at 3310-3315, with a critical support level at 3280 if broken [3] Group 2 - The domestic gold market is expected to show limited volatility, with anticipated prices for Shanghai gold around 785 and accumulated gold around 780 [3] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach to entry, exit, and risk control to achieve stable profits over time [4]

来源：闫瑞祥_ 黄金 黄金方面，周三黄金价格总体呈现下跌的状态，当日价格最高上涨至3333.89位置，最低下跌至3267.9位置，收盘于3274.82位置。针对周三黄金在 日内持续震荡后价格压制在3335位置，对于美盘前ADP数据大幅利空，并且整体属于空，所以后续价格持续承压下跌，最终当天大阴收尾，今天 是7月份最后一个交易日，明日又是非农数据，在这两日需要谨慎对待。 从多周期分析，首先观察月线节奏，价格在5月份正如笔者所言按照节奏运行，并且最终十字状态，6月份最终价格依旧是反K状态收尾，今天是7 月份最终收盘的日子，关注最终收盘表现。从周线级别看，周线上近期价格持续高位震荡，随着时间的推移周线分水岭暂时于3320位置，在上周 冲高回落后，目前价格再度进行下破，同时需要关注周线最终收盘能否收在此位置下方，一旦收在下方则后续中期空将进一步加速。按照日线级 别看，价格在上周五如期跌破日线支撑位置，则前期支撑变关键阻力，目前日线阻力于3345位置，价格在此位置之下波段空对待。同时四小时 上，价格在上周三跌破四小时支撑后，目前价格持续压制，后续价格只要不破四小时3312阻力则维持短期空对待。一小时上，价格经过近几日持 ...

黄金能否冲上3395？如何看待震荡区间的反弹？黄金上涨动能是否衰竭？金十研究员Steven正在直播， 点击进入直播间观看>> 相关链接 黄金实时分析中 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of London gold is $3,375.59 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.35% [1] - The opening price for gold today was $3,389.65 per ounce, with a high of $3,395.62 and a low of $3,374.79 [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Chairman Powell's speech are expected to be announced today, with traders anticipating two rate cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - Citibank has downgraded its short-term and long-term price forecasts for gold, predicting prices may fall below $3,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026 due to declining investment demand and improving global economic growth prospects [1] - The technical analysis indicates that the relative strength index (RSI) has risen above the midline, currently close to 57.50, suggesting that bullish sentiment for gold remains intact [1] - For sustained upward movement, gold must hold above the static resistance level of $3,440, with the next target being the two-month high of $3,453, which could lead to a challenge of the historical high of $3,500 [1] Group 3 - If the previous corrective trend resumes, bears may test the former strong resistance level, now turned support at $3,377, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the record rally in April [2] - Should the psychological level of $3,350 be breached, the next support level will be at the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,341 [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices during the European trading session and explores the reasons behind this movement [1] - It raises questions about whether gold prices can break through key resistance levels in the future [1] - The article also examines the short-term outlook for day traders, questioning whether they are leaning towards a bullish or bearish sentiment [1] Summary by Categories - **Price Movement**: Gold prices experienced a significant increase during the European trading session, prompting analysis of the underlying factors driving this trend [1] - **Future Projections**: There is speculation on whether gold can surpass critical price levels, indicating potential for further upward movement [1] - **Trader Sentiment**: The article highlights the current sentiment among day traders, suggesting a division between bullish and bearish perspectives in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The non-farm employment population increased by 139,000, exceeding the expected 130,000, which has slowed down the Federal Reserve's actions on interest rate cuts [3] - Following the release of the strong employment data, gold prices fell below $3,330 and approached the $3,300 mark [3] - The current price movement suggests that if prices remain above $3,280, there is still potential for further upward movement, despite the recent significant pullback [3] Group 2 - Key resistance levels for the day are identified at the high point of $3,332-$3,336 and the drop point of $3,370, which serves as a short-term bearish defense level [5] - Key support levels are at the lower channel line around $3,280 and the previous top-bottom conversion level at $3,250 [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market experienced a gap down on Monday and continued to decline, showing alternating bearish and bullish patterns, ultimately closing the week with a bearish candle featuring a long lower shadow [1] - U.S. April CPI data showed a mild performance, leading to a decrease in inflation expectations and a stronger dollar, which pressured gold prices. The April PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.5%, while retail sales growth dropped significantly from 1.7% in March to 0.1%, indicating increased economic slowdown pressures [2] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the stalemate in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 11 basis points to 4.435%, increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 75.4% probability for a September cut, providing some support for gold prices [2] - The recent easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with mutual tariff cancellations, has temporarily alleviated trade friction, impacting market sentiment [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged challenges facing the U.S. economy and the Fed, indicating potential volatility in future inflation. Although he did not elaborate on rate cut expectations, the recent CPI data has intensified pressure on the Fed to lower rates [5] - Wall Street's major banks have postponed their expectations for a Fed rate cut due to easing trade tensions, complicating the impact on gold prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a corrective phase, having encountered strong resistance at the 3500 level. The recent price action suggests that gold may have entered a fourth wave adjustment structure [9] - A breakdown below the 3202 support level confirmed the start of a C-wave decline, with a potential short-term rebound observed near the 3120 level. The focus will be on whether gold can stabilize above 3120 to initiate a rebound [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing analysis of gold prices, indicating a potential downward trend and questioning whether there will be a reversal opportunity tonight [1]. Group 1 - Gold prices are experiencing a continuous decline, prompting traders to consider whether to maintain a bearish outlook or adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resistance faced by gold prices during the European trading session and raises questions about the potential for new lows within the day [1] Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a rebound but faced obstacles in maintaining upward momentum during the European trading hours [1] - The article suggests that there is uncertainty regarding whether gold can reach new lows in the current trading day [1]

Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are driving short-term price volatility in gold, with a potential breakout above $3,450 if conflicts escalate or negotiations fail [2] - The U.S. April CPI shows a year-on-year inflation rate of 2.3%, indicating a decline in inflation; however, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance may limit expectations for interest rate cuts in July [3] - The dollar index is expected to remain high due to Trump's tariff policies, which may suppress gold prices in the short term, while the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs is slowing, reducing the marginal substitution effect of cryptocurrencies on gold [3] Group 2 - Support levels for gold are identified at $3,000 and the $2,920-$2,960 range, while resistance levels are at $3,450 and $3,550 [3] - COMEX gold futures open interest has decreased for two consecutive weeks, indicating short-term speculative profit-taking, while global gold ETF holdings have increased to 3,200 tons, reflecting a 4.7% rise since the beginning of the year [3] Group 3 - Physical demand for gold is showing a mixed trend, with Chinese gold jewelry consumption declining by 8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while investment demand for gold bars and coins has increased by 22% [3] - Central banks are expected to maintain gold purchases at 800-1,000 tons per year, with emerging market central banks like China and India having significant room to increase their gold reserves, which currently account for less than 10% [5] Group 4 - Three potential scenarios for the next six months are outlined: a bullish breakout with a 35% probability if the Fed cuts rates in July and Middle East tensions escalate, a consolidation phase with a 50% probability, and a bearish scenario with a 15% probability if a U.S.-China trade agreement is reached [5] - Short-term strategy suggests building positions in the $3,000-$3,100 range with a stop-loss below $2,920, while a wave strategy recommends adding positions after a breakout above $3,450 with targets of $3,550-$3,650 [5]