如何抓住黄金波段机会？聪明钱的选择，黄金+股票一键搞定>> 格隆汇2月16日｜一些坚定的黄金多头对贵金属的历史性回调不以为意，仍然期待金价再次飙升至前所 未有的水平。1月底，纽约黄金期货价格一度突破每盎司5600美元的历史新高，但第二天便遭遇前所未 有的暴跌。在此期间，一位或几位投资者开始在芝加哥商品交易所旗下的纽约商品交易所（COMEX） 买入12月到期的、行权价为15000美元/20000美元的看涨期权价差合约。即使金价价格在5000美元附近 盘整后，该仓位仍在持续增持，目前已达到约11000份合约。"在技术性回调之后，看到如此多的深度虚 值看涨期权价差未平仓合约，着实令人惊讶，"道富投资管理公司全球黄金和金属策略主管阿卡什·多希 表示。"一些交易员可能将其视为廉价的彩票机会。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to significantly influence gold prices, with current technical indicators suggesting a potential for a bullish trend if the data is favorable [1][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold has recently experienced a second dip around the 4660 level, which has attracted considerable buying interest in the domestic market, particularly before the Chinese New Year holiday [1][5]. - The current market dynamics suggest that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will serve as a critical signal for gold's price movement, with a positive outcome likely indicating a double bottom formation [1][6]. - If the non-farm data is negative, gold may continue to consolidate at lower levels or even reach new lows, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1][5]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The four-hour chart shows a golden cross formation, which has also been confirmed on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish trend [3][7]. - Despite the recent upward movement, gold has faced resistance at the 5091 level, suggesting that the bullish momentum may not be sustained in the short term [3][7]. - The market is currently in a state of anticipation, with traders advised to prepare for potential price movements based on the non-farm payroll data [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has maintained a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2026, with last week's performance solidifying the bullish momentum despite short-term resistance [1][5]. Market Performance - Gold opened strong at 4520.9 points, briefly retracing to 4510.6 points before a significant rally, reaching a peak of 4643.8 points, marking a new high for the period [1][5]. - The closing price was 4595.5 points, forming a large bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow, indicating both strong bullish control and short-term resistance above 4640 points [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The candlestick pattern reflects intense competition between bulls and bears, with the bullish entity indicating overall dominance and strong buying interest, while the long upper shadow suggests notable resistance above 4640 points [2][6]. - The high-level pullback is interpreted as a trial and washout action by major players, with volume increasing during the rally and decreasing during the pullback, confirming the bullish trend [2][6]. Macro and Funding Support - The bullish support for gold remains intact, driven by strategic demand from global central banks, which purchased over 1136 tons of gold in 2025, a record high, with China increasing its holdings for 14 consecutive months [2][6]. - Expectations of 2-3 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 are anticipated to lower the cost of holding gold, alongside persistent high U.S. debt levels and geopolitical risks, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][6]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook suggests a high probability of continued bullish momentum, with gold prices above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and the Bollinger Bands opening upwards [3][7]. - Key resistance is identified at 4643.8 points, while the 4590-4580 range serves as critical support, which, if maintained, could provide a solid foundation for further upward movement [3][7]. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy involves focusing on buying opportunities during pullbacks, with suggested entry around 4600 points and a strict stop-loss set below 4590 points to mitigate risks [3][7]. - The first target for upward movement is set at 4630 points, with potential for further gains if the price breaks above this level [3][7].

1月12日，之前一直强调黄金多头形态仍在，思路上自然仍是保持低多为主，站上4500关口以及破位历 史高点4550后均可继续看多头延升，顺势的前提不畏高，虽然是金比天高的价格，但趋势如此，恐高去 猜顶相信结局不会好，尤其是盘面价格每一次刷新高点以后都有大幅加速上涨的动作，这一点一直在提 及。 上周五的盘面走势完全符合预期，日内强调黄金依托早盘低点4452下方为多头防守位择低去布局多看 涨，站上4500都直接多剑指4550历史高点，历史高位一破继续打开上涨空间，那就可以无脑看多头加速 上涨即可，上周五晚盘黄金价格回落触及4459位置后大幅拉升，破位4500后如期延续上涨。 话不多说，先看图，早盘黄金已经突破前期4550的高点，加速大涨至4600美元关口，破位历史新高后多 头打开上涨空间，两个小时90美金的上升，无疑说明了当前多头的强势，目前在4600美元整数关口承压 回落修正，回落正是倒车接人的机会，短线等待回调之后，依然以做多为主，逢低做多，寻找支撑布 局，这是毫无疑问的，下方重要支撑位4550一线，此前历史高点压制突破后形成反向支撑，今日依托此 顶底转换支撑位为防守位直接看涨，无限看高不猜顶，下一站在天际，站 ...

Macro News - The main gold futures in Shanghai reported at 984.84 CNY per gram, with a decline of 3.11%. The opening price was 1004.72 CNY per gram, with a high of 1007.12 CNY and a low of 970.02 CNY [1] - The U.S. President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the Fed's building renovation, indicating potential legal action against Powell for incompetence [1] - The U.S. has intensified its blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers, with non-sanctioned vessels also facing seizures. Trump mentioned the possibility of declaring war on Venezuela, indicating an escalation in pressure on the country [1] - The U.S. is advancing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, stating that progress towards a peace agreement is very close [1] Institutional Views - After the CME Group's second increase in precious metals margin rates, precious metals experienced a significant pullback, leading to a notable decrease in market speculation [1] - Despite geopolitical disturbances, the U.S.-China interest rate cut cycle, and de-dollarization, the bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. The outlook for gold remains positive [1] - The strategy for holding long positions in the Shanghai gold February contract is maintained [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent breakout above 4260 is seen as a positive development for gold bulls, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics after a prolonged period of consolidation [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. military budget has surpassed historical highs, suggesting a strategic shift in global military positioning, particularly regarding support for Ukraine [1][4]. - Japan's involvement in the situation hints at a broader conflict, likely targeting Russia, which could lead to significant geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold market has shown resilience, with a bounce back from 3900 and maintaining a position above the 4000 mark, indicating a bullish trend despite previous corrections [1][4]. - Following the breakout at 4260, previous resistance levels are expected to become support, with a potential target of 4300 in the near term [2][5]. - The current market conditions suggest that a rapid increase in gold prices is imminent, with strategies in place for incremental buying as the market progresses [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a bullish trend, with expectations of significant upward movement following a recent price stabilization above 4230, indicating a strong recovery after a brief dip below 4000 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold has broken above the 4160 level, signaling a return to a strong bullish phase, with potential for a substantial single-direction price increase [1][4]. - The recent price action shows that after a drop from a high of 4380, gold has rebounded and is now positioned to challenge previous highs, with a target of 5000 if it surpasses 4386 [1][4]. - Technical indicators such as the golden cross on both the four-hour and daily charts suggest a continuation of the upward trend, supported by increasing risk aversion in the international landscape [1][4]. Group 2: Trading Strategy - The current market conditions present an optimal opportunity for medium to long-term positions in gold, with a focus on identifying entry points for bullish trades [2][5]. - The weekly chart shows a rebound from the 10-week moving average, indicating a strong upward momentum, with immediate resistance at 4280 and a potential challenge of the previous high at 4386 [2][5]. - Traders are advised to adopt a strategy of buying on dips, as the market is expected to maintain an upward trajectory, with a focus on long-term gains rather than short-term fluctuations [2][5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the difference between making decisions based on rules versus emotions, emphasizing that successful individuals focus on the essence of situations while ordinary people react emotionally [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Gold Prices - The current sentiment in the gold market is characterized by extreme bullishness, with prices recently surpassing 1000 yuan per gram, leading to a situation where those without gold are effectively "working for" those who own it [2]. - Gold prices have seen significant increases, with a rise of 1200 dollars noted, marking the largest increase in this upward trend [5]. - The market is currently in a phase of irrational exuberance, with a focus on breaking previous high points, particularly the resistance levels around 4380-4385 dollars [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Upcoming events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, potential U.S. government shutdown, trade conflicts, and geopolitical risks are expected to influence market dynamics, with current emotional sentiment reaching unprecedented levels [3]. - The critical support level for gold is identified at 4300 dollars per ounce, with the potential for further upward movement contingent on breaking previous highs [5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold bulls are eager to buy on dips ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, indicating strong market demand regardless of the Fed's stance [1] Group 1 - In the hours leading up to the Fed's announcement, gold prices reduced their intraday decline from $38 to $12, showcasing a resilient buying interest [1] - The market sentiment suggests that even if the Fed is not currently dovish, it may adopt a more dovish stance in the future [1] - External factors such as Trump's desire to lower interest rates and the ongoing global disorder, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and trade wars, are creating new risks that favor gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in global gold prices, reaching historical highs, raises questions about whether it is a suitable time to invest in gold, with various factors contributing to this trend [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global gold prices, including domestic physical gold, futures, and international London gold, are consistently hitting historical highs, with Hong Kong's gold trading volume also reaching record levels [1]. - The recent U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, moving from a 25 basis point reduction to a 50 basis point reduction, have provided strong support for gold prices [1]. - The weakening U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has driven investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Central Bank Actions - Persistent global inflation, economic contraction, and currency depreciation are underlying factors supporting the long-term rise in gold prices, with central banks worldwide, including China's, continuously increasing their gold reserves [1]. - The market sentiment indicates that while current conditions favor gold, there is a cautionary note that once positive news is fully priced in, it could lead to a downturn [3]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Market Sentiment - Short-term predictions suggest that gold could reach a pressure point of $3,700 per ounce, but there is a possibility of a technical adjustment thereafter, with a support range between $3,700 and $3,550 [3][4]. - The current market environment is characterized by a struggle between bullish and bearish sentiments, as evidenced by recent fluctuations in international gold prices [4].