12月30日，沪金主力暂报984.84元/克，跌幅3.11%，今日沪金主力开盘价1004.72元/克，截至目前最高 1007.12元/克，最低970.02元/克。 【宏观消息】 【黄金期货行情表现】 美国总统特朗普表示，将在适当的时机宣布美联储主席人选，时间很充裕；批评美联储主席鲍威尔及美 联储翻修大楼的做法；正考虑起诉鲍威尔，指控他无法胜任工作。 芝商所第2次上调贵金属保证金率后，贵金属集体大幅回调，市场投机情绪显著降温。但地缘政治扰 动、中美降息周期、以及去美元化等黄金看涨逻辑未变。维持黄金多头观点不变。策略上沪金02合约前 多继续持有。 【机构观点】 美国加大对委内瑞拉油轮封锁力度，未受制裁船只也遭遇扣押，甚至特朗普表示不排除对委内瑞拉宣战 的可能性，意味着对委施压出现升级。美委局势依然趋紧，美国方面表示不排除采取进一步行动的可能 性。美国再度推进俄乌和谈，美国方面表示和平协议的达成进度已非常接近。 ...

12月12日，冲击破位了4260，这对于黄金多头来讲是一个好事，毕竟黄金已经盘整太久了。实际上这也 是国际上的进一步动作了，美国军费预资已经超过了历史高度，实际上美国以退为进全球所有的牌都已 经打出来了，剩下的就是战术转换。核心就是在哪打，打多大的问题。有了这个明确的方向以后，黄金 市场上的多头推动可能会比较顺利，美国战略回缩可是实际上重新批准了对乌克兰的援助。那么日本跳 这么高，最终战场可能还是在乌克兰，北约集团里日本跳出来声东击西，最终北约大概率是冲着俄罗斯 而来，那样大概率是全面爆发性质。有了主心骨，操作起来自然会比较顺畅。黄金从4380上方回落以 来，探底击穿3900未能进一步下探，而且黄金持续性盘正在4000整数关口上方，已经可以给黄金定性多 头仅仅只是回踩，而且回踩过后还会有新高出现，只是我们等待的时间过长了，在快要失去耐心的时候 最终迎来了破位。 技术面上涨跌交替本就是行情常态，处于震荡区间里面的黄金不破位则会比较纠结，只要破位给出了方 向那就是报复性的上涨，黄金的慢涨即将加速，今天周五大家可能会重新见到低位的机会，不过低位给 出来就是进场时机。4小时周期经过午夜的上涨贯彻了开口，已经进一步打开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a bullish trend, with expectations of significant upward movement following a recent price stabilization above 4230, indicating a strong recovery after a brief dip below 4000 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold has broken above the 4160 level, signaling a return to a strong bullish phase, with potential for a substantial single-direction price increase [1][4]. - The recent price action shows that after a drop from a high of 4380, gold has rebounded and is now positioned to challenge previous highs, with a target of 5000 if it surpasses 4386 [1][4]. - Technical indicators such as the golden cross on both the four-hour and daily charts suggest a continuation of the upward trend, supported by increasing risk aversion in the international landscape [1][4]. Group 2: Trading Strategy - The current market conditions present an optimal opportunity for medium to long-term positions in gold, with a focus on identifying entry points for bullish trades [2][5]. - The weekly chart shows a rebound from the 10-week moving average, indicating a strong upward momentum, with immediate resistance at 4280 and a potential challenge of the previous high at 4386 [2][5]. - Traders are advised to adopt a strategy of buying on dips, as the market is expected to maintain an upward trajectory, with a focus on long-term gains rather than short-term fluctuations [2][5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the difference between making decisions based on rules versus emotions, emphasizing that successful individuals focus on the essence of situations while ordinary people react emotionally [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Gold Prices - The current sentiment in the gold market is characterized by extreme bullishness, with prices recently surpassing 1000 yuan per gram, leading to a situation where those without gold are effectively "working for" those who own it [2]. - Gold prices have seen significant increases, with a rise of 1200 dollars noted, marking the largest increase in this upward trend [5]. - The market is currently in a phase of irrational exuberance, with a focus on breaking previous high points, particularly the resistance levels around 4380-4385 dollars [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Upcoming events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, potential U.S. government shutdown, trade conflicts, and geopolitical risks are expected to influence market dynamics, with current emotional sentiment reaching unprecedented levels [3]. - The critical support level for gold is identified at 4300 dollars per ounce, with the potential for further upward movement contingent on breaking previous highs [5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold bulls are eager to buy on dips ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, indicating strong market demand regardless of the Fed's stance [1] Group 1 - In the hours leading up to the Fed's announcement, gold prices reduced their intraday decline from $38 to $12, showcasing a resilient buying interest [1] - The market sentiment suggests that even if the Fed is not currently dovish, it may adopt a more dovish stance in the future [1] - External factors such as Trump's desire to lower interest rates and the ongoing global disorder, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and trade wars, are creating new risks that favor gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in global gold prices, reaching historical highs, raises questions about whether it is a suitable time to invest in gold, with various factors contributing to this trend [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global gold prices, including domestic physical gold, futures, and international London gold, are consistently hitting historical highs, with Hong Kong's gold trading volume also reaching record levels [1]. - The recent U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, moving from a 25 basis point reduction to a 50 basis point reduction, have provided strong support for gold prices [1]. - The weakening U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has driven investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Central Bank Actions - Persistent global inflation, economic contraction, and currency depreciation are underlying factors supporting the long-term rise in gold prices, with central banks worldwide, including China's, continuously increasing their gold reserves [1]. - The market sentiment indicates that while current conditions favor gold, there is a cautionary note that once positive news is fully priced in, it could lead to a downturn [3]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Market Sentiment - Short-term predictions suggest that gold could reach a pressure point of $3,700 per ounce, but there is a possibility of a technical adjustment thereafter, with a support range between $3,700 and $3,550 [3][4]. - The current market environment is characterized by a struggle between bullish and bearish sentiments, as evidenced by recent fluctuations in international gold prices [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent surge in gold prices driven by market demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts [1] - On December 3, 2025, the most actively traded gold futures price rose by $20.2, closing at $3,619.7 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.56% [1] - The highest intraday gold price reached $3,640.1 on the same day, indicating strong market activity [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a decline in job vacancies to 7.18 million in July, the lowest level since March, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market and decreasing hiring [1] - The report's weakness supports dovish expectations for U.S. monetary policy and is favorable for gold bulls [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.24% to 98.142, further supporting gold prices [1] Group 3 - According to the World Gold Council, central banks globally purchased a net of 10 tons of gold in July, maintaining their status as net buyers despite a slowdown in purchasing speed [1] - Emerging markets continue to be stable buyers of gold [1] Group 4 - Surbiton Associates reported that Australia's gold production in Q2 2025 reached 76 tons, an increase of 3 tons or 4% from the previous quarter [2] - Australia's annual gold production has risen to its highest level since the 2022/2023 fiscal year, approaching the record of 328 tons set in the 1999/2000 fiscal year [2] - Silver futures for December delivery increased by $0.08, closing at $41.810 per ounce, with an intraday high of $42.290 per ounce [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent increase in gold prices driven by market demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts [2][3] - On September 3, 2025 December gold futures rose by $20.2, closing at $3,619.7 per ounce, marking a 0.56% increase, with an intraday high of $3,640.1 [2] - The U.S. Labor Department reported a decline in job vacancies to 7.18 million in July, the lowest since March, indicating a slowdown in the labor market, which supports dovish monetary policy expectations and bullish sentiment for gold [2] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.24% to 98.142, contributing to the support for gold prices [2] - According to the World Gold Council, central banks globally purchased a net of 10 tons of gold in July, maintaining their status as net buyers despite a slowdown in purchasing speed [2] - Surbiton Associates reported that Australia's gold production in Q2 2025 reached 76 tons, an increase of 3 tons or 4% from the previous quarter, marking the highest annual production level since the 2022/2023 fiscal year [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a resurgence in bullish sentiment for gold, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which suggest a potential interest rate cut in September [1] - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, reaching a peak of $3,378, with a notable 1% rise in a single day, attributed to a weakening dollar and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Upcoming key U.S. economic data, including durable goods orders, GDP revisions, and the PCE price index, are expected to influence Federal Reserve decisions and could impact gold prices [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, gold's daily chart shows a strong bullish trend, with prices remaining above the middle Bollinger Band, indicating robust momentum [3] - The support level for gold has been raised to around $3,360, and as long as this level holds, there is a high probability of further price increases, potentially challenging the resistance zone of $3,400 to $3,420 [3] - A successful breakout above the $3,400 level could open up more significant upward potential for gold prices [3] Group 3 - A trading suggestion is provided to buy on a pullback to the $3,370-$3,365 range, with a stop loss at $3,360 and a target of $3,400 [4]

Group 1 - The stock market shows significant profit-making effects, with funds withdrawing from safe-haven assets to pursue high-yield stocks [1] Group 2 - There are predictions that gold prices may drop below $700, with some speculating it could fall to $600, which would be a critical point for investors [2] - UBS has adjusted its gold price forecast to $3,600, indicating a long-term bullish outlook on gold despite recent fluctuations [2] - The ongoing debate between bullish and bearish perspectives on gold continues, with bearish analysts suggesting that prices around $3,450 to $3,500 could become a significant resistance level [2]