（原标题：连续四年财务造假，300379拟被终止上市！纸张再迎来涨价潮！） 据统计，截至11月24日，国内瓦楞纸日均价为3213元/吨，同比上涨17.65%；箱板纸日均价为3889元/ 吨，同比上涨6.86%。 与此同时，近期国内多家知名浆纸企业密集发布产品调价通知，涉及白卡纸、铜卡、食品卡、再生牛卡 纸、高强瓦楞纸等多个纸种，调价幅度集中在50元/吨至200元/吨区间，执行时间主要集中在2025年11 月下旬至12月1日。企业普遍表示，调价旨在缓解经营压力、维护健康的市场秩序，确保能够持续为客 户提供稳定的高品质产品及服务，推动行业长期健康发展。 大同证券认为，当前造纸行业迎来"提价红利+需求改善+结构升级"三重利好。需求端，包装纸补库需 求延续，特种纸受益于环保政策与消费升级；供给端，龙头企业主导提价，低效产能逐步出清；成本 端，纸浆库存去化优化供需结构。板块估值处于历史低位，叠加行业转型带来的长期成长潜力，配置价 值进一步凸显。 今年三季度以来，包装纸行业用到的原纸，价格接连上涨。 *ST东通拟被终止上市 11月26日晚，*ST东通发布公告，公司于11月26日收到深圳证券交易所下发的《事先告知书》，拟决 ...

Core Insights - The Guizhou Provincial Department of Commerce is soliciting opinions on a draft guideline aimed at transforming the "selling liquor" model into a "selling lifestyle" approach, emphasizing the integration of the liquor industry with tourism and other sectors [1] - Century Securities indicates that the adjustment period in the liquor industry is accelerating, with a notable divergence in company performance as the industry continues to face weak consumption recovery [1] - Open Source Securities notes a significant decline in revenue growth for the liquor industry in Q3 2025 compared to Q2, attributing this to weak market demand and companies prioritizing channel order over annual targets [2] Group 1: Industry Trends - The "liquor+" industry integration action is being implemented to promote the development of liquor-related tourism, dining, and retail, expanding the industry's boundaries [1] - The adjustment phase in the liquor industry is leading to a faster clearing process, with small and medium-sized enterprises struggling due to high inventory and insufficient recovery in local consumption scenarios [1] - The high-end liquor segment is also experiencing a reporting clearing rhythm, indicating that even resilient brands are not immune to the current market pressures [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall price range of liquor is under pressure, with companies facing challenges in managing inventory and pricing strategies [1] - The demand for liquor is approaching a bottom range, with the impact of alcohol bans diminishing and companies proactively reducing supply to alleviate channel pressures [2] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve in the medium to long term, with rising household income and consumer willingness likely to support a gradual recovery in liquor consumption [2]

Group 1 - Ethylene glycol prices have been under pressure due to multiple negative factors including a slowdown in coal price increases, a significant drop in crude oil prices, and insufficient downstream demand, leading to a decline in prices approaching the low points of the first half of the year [1] - Since late October, there has been a marginal improvement in terminal orders, which has driven polyester destocking, alongside a rebound in crude oil and coal prices, indicating a potential bottoming out of ethylene glycol prices [1][4] - The new expansion cycle for ethylene glycol is beginning, which is expected to increase supply pressure and may limit the rebound potential of prices [5] Group 2 - The production processes for ethylene glycol are primarily based on petroleum and coal, which together account for over 80% of domestic production capacity, making the price trends of crude oil and coal significantly impactful on ethylene glycol prices [2] - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased sanctions against Russia have led to a strong rebound in international oil prices, with significant implications for the global oil supply [2] - Coal prices have also strengthened due to production limitations in major coal-producing regions and increased demand from non-electric sectors, particularly the chemical industry, which has supported coal price increases [3] Group 3 - Since mid-October, the rebound in energy prices has boosted market confidence, leading to an increase in weaving enterprises' new order indices and overall operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces [4] - The average operating rate for polyester is expected to remain at 91.5% in October and increase to 90.5% in November, which is significantly better than previous market expectations [4] - The ethylene glycol market is facing long-term supply pressure due to new production capacities coming online, with an estimated 1 million tons of new capacity expected to be added in the next three years [5][6] Group 4 - Ethylene glycol production profits are currently at a relatively high level due to lower raw material costs and improvements in production efficiency, which have led to increased production rates [6] - Domestic coal-based ethylene glycol operating rates have risen significantly, indicating a recovery in production activity [6] - The import supply of ethylene glycol remains ample, with expectations of high import volumes in the fourth quarter, contributing to a continued loose supply environment [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Later, be cautious about short - selling at low levels for PP, and it may be a volatile market in the medium - term [1] - Short - term demand improves month - on - month, but the cost side remains weak. Supply pressure will increase in the future, but there are also positive factors such as holiday effects, potential Fed rate cuts, and uncertainties in the Middle East [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was 6913, with a daily decline of 0.43%. The trading volume was 255,093, and the open interest increased by 19,156. The 01 - contract basis was - 193, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 23 [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of PP in North China was 6700 - 6860 yuan/ton, in East China was 6720 - 6920 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6690 - 6900 yuan/ton yesterday [1] 3.2 Spot News - The domestic PP market declined slightly by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Futures fluctuated at a low level, weakening cost support. Traders actively sold goods, and downstream demand was weak [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Short - term demand improves, but the cost side is weak. Supply pressure will increase due to the resumption of maintenance devices and new capacity expansion. However, there are positive factors such as holiday effects, potential Fed rate cuts, and uncertainties in the Middle East [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 799 million yuan, up 15.66% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 742 million yuan, reflecting a 24.49% year-on-year growth [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 4.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.19% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 was 429 million yuan, up 15.35% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q2 was 405 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 34.39% [1] Operational Analysis - Domestic demand is improving while overseas markets continue to grow significantly [2] - In Q2 2025, sales revenue from yeast and deep processing reached 2.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - The sales revenue for sugar, packaging, and other products in Q2 was 228 million, 99 million, and 776 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 20.1%, 3.6%, and 9.3% [2] - Domestic revenue in Q2 was 2.3 billion yuan, up 4.3% year-on-year, while international revenue was 11.78 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.3% year-on-year increase [2] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross margin in Q2 2025 was 26.2%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to lower molasses costs and reduced raw material prices compared to Q1 [3] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders in Q2 was 10.5%, up 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Government subsidies in H1 2025 amounted to 35 million yuan, a decrease of 62.4% year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the recovery of domestic demand and the continuous expansion of overseas markets [4] - The main business of baking yeast is expected to continue its recovery, with derivative products driving structural upgrades [4] - The company anticipates further profit release in H2 2025 due to declining raw material costs [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.63 billion, 1.90 billion, and 2.17 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23%, 17%, and 14% [5] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 19x, 16x, and 14x for the respective years [5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by 0.40% to $9,723.5 per ton due to a weaker dollar and improved demand expectations [1] - SHFE September copper contract rose by 0.14% to ¥78,490 per ton, with July copper ore imports at 2.56 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.0% [2] - China's copper and copper products imports decreased by 2.6% year-on-year to 311,300 tons in the first seven months of the year [2] Group 2 - Codelco has applied to reopen part of its flagship mine following a recent fatal accident that disrupted production [3] - Short-term supply disruptions may lead to a rise in spot prices and downward pressure on processing fees according to analysts [3] - Other LME metals showed mixed performance, with aluminum up 0.31% to $2,618 per ton and nickel down 0.05% to $15,110 per ton [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **non-ferrous metals industry**, with a focus on the **electrolytic aluminum** and **steel** sectors [1][2][11]. Key Points on Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - **Market Performance**: The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to perform well, with a confirmed inventory turning point. Social inventories of aluminum ingots and bars have decreased, with aluminum ingots down by 0.2 thousand tons and aluminum bars down by 0.86 thousand tons [3][4]. - **Price Trends**: Aluminum prices have started to rise, reaching 2,835 RMB/ton, marking a 1% increase this week. This aligns with expectations of improved demand [4]. - **Cost Improvements**: The cost structure for electrolytic aluminum is improving due to declining alumina prices and increased upstream supply. Additionally, lower coal prices are reducing electricity costs for self-supplied power plants, benefiting profitability [5][6]. - **Profitability**: Companies in the Xinjiang region, such as Shenhuo, have seen significant improvements in profitability, with net profit per ton of aluminum around 4,000 RMB. However, these improvements may reflect in financial statements with a delay of one to two months [6]. - **Future Outlook**: The overall market logic for electrolytic aluminum is gradually being realized, with expectations for continued price increases driven by cost reductions, tightening supply, and improving demand [8]. Key Points on Steel Sector - **Market Dynamics**: The steel sector is experiencing a positive sentiment due to expectations of capacity reduction and improved demand from the real estate sector. The government has indicated a focus on reducing crude steel production [2][9]. - **Profitability Outlook**: The steel industry's profitability is expected to improve as coal and ore prices decline, providing a safety margin for the sector [9]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies with strong cost control and good regional competitive positions, such as New Steel and Hualian Steel, are recommended for investment [9]. Key Points on Copper Market - **Supply and Demand**: The copper market is showing signs of a supply constraint due to a lack of new capacity in recent years. Current inventory levels are relatively healthy, and demand is expected to improve as the traditional consumption peak approaches [7][10]. - **Price Drivers**: Factors such as the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on copper imports and a declining U.S. dollar index are likely to support copper price increases [10]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Metal Mining are highlighted as potential investment opportunities in the copper sector [10]. Additional Insights - The overall non-ferrous metals sector is gaining attention, with aluminum and steel showing sustained performance. The copper market is also beginning to show clearer turning points, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies [11].