1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Later, be cautious about short - selling at low levels for PP, and it may be a volatile market in the medium - term [1] - Short - term demand improves month - on - month, but the cost side remains weak. Supply pressure will increase in the future, but there are also positive factors such as holiday effects, potential Fed rate cuts, and uncertainties in the Middle East [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was 6913, with a daily decline of 0.43%. The trading volume was 255,093, and the open interest increased by 19,156. The 01 - contract basis was - 193, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 23 [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of PP in North China was 6700 - 6860 yuan/ton, in East China was 6720 - 6920 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6690 - 6900 yuan/ton yesterday [1] 3.2 Spot News - The domestic PP market declined slightly by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Futures fluctuated at a low level, weakening cost support. Traders actively sold goods, and downstream demand was weak [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Short - term demand improves, but the cost side is weak. Supply pressure will increase due to the resumption of maintenance devices and new capacity expansion. However, there are positive factors such as holiday effects, potential Fed rate cuts, and uncertainties in the Middle East [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 799 million yuan, up 15.66% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 742 million yuan, reflecting a 24.49% year-on-year growth [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 4.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.19% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 was 429 million yuan, up 15.35% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q2 was 405 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 34.39% [1] Operational Analysis - Domestic demand is improving while overseas markets continue to grow significantly [2] - In Q2 2025, sales revenue from yeast and deep processing reached 2.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - The sales revenue for sugar, packaging, and other products in Q2 was 228 million, 99 million, and 776 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 20.1%, 3.6%, and 9.3% [2] - Domestic revenue in Q2 was 2.3 billion yuan, up 4.3% year-on-year, while international revenue was 11.78 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.3% year-on-year increase [2] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross margin in Q2 2025 was 26.2%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to lower molasses costs and reduced raw material prices compared to Q1 [3] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders in Q2 was 10.5%, up 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Government subsidies in H1 2025 amounted to 35 million yuan, a decrease of 62.4% year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the recovery of domestic demand and the continuous expansion of overseas markets [4] - The main business of baking yeast is expected to continue its recovery, with derivative products driving structural upgrades [4] - The company anticipates further profit release in H2 2025 due to declining raw material costs [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.63 billion, 1.90 billion, and 2.17 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23%, 17%, and 14% [5] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 19x, 16x, and 14x for the respective years [5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by 0.40% to $9,723.5 per ton due to a weaker dollar and improved demand expectations [1] - SHFE September copper contract rose by 0.14% to ¥78,490 per ton, with July copper ore imports at 2.56 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.0% [2] - China's copper and copper products imports decreased by 2.6% year-on-year to 311,300 tons in the first seven months of the year [2] Group 2 - Codelco has applied to reopen part of its flagship mine following a recent fatal accident that disrupted production [3] - Short-term supply disruptions may lead to a rise in spot prices and downward pressure on processing fees according to analysts [3] - Other LME metals showed mixed performance, with aluminum up 0.31% to $2,618 per ton and nickel down 0.05% to $15,110 per ton [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **non-ferrous metals industry**, with a focus on the **electrolytic aluminum** and **steel** sectors [1][2][11]. Key Points on Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - **Market Performance**: The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to perform well, with a confirmed inventory turning point. Social inventories of aluminum ingots and bars have decreased, with aluminum ingots down by 0.2 thousand tons and aluminum bars down by 0.86 thousand tons [3][4]. - **Price Trends**: Aluminum prices have started to rise, reaching 2,835 RMB/ton, marking a 1% increase this week. This aligns with expectations of improved demand [4]. - **Cost Improvements**: The cost structure for electrolytic aluminum is improving due to declining alumina prices and increased upstream supply. Additionally, lower coal prices are reducing electricity costs for self-supplied power plants, benefiting profitability [5][6]. - **Profitability**: Companies in the Xinjiang region, such as Shenhuo, have seen significant improvements in profitability, with net profit per ton of aluminum around 4,000 RMB. However, these improvements may reflect in financial statements with a delay of one to two months [6]. - **Future Outlook**: The overall market logic for electrolytic aluminum is gradually being realized, with expectations for continued price increases driven by cost reductions, tightening supply, and improving demand [8]. Key Points on Steel Sector - **Market Dynamics**: The steel sector is experiencing a positive sentiment due to expectations of capacity reduction and improved demand from the real estate sector. The government has indicated a focus on reducing crude steel production [2][9]. - **Profitability Outlook**: The steel industry's profitability is expected to improve as coal and ore prices decline, providing a safety margin for the sector [9]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies with strong cost control and good regional competitive positions, such as New Steel and Hualian Steel, are recommended for investment [9]. Key Points on Copper Market - **Supply and Demand**: The copper market is showing signs of a supply constraint due to a lack of new capacity in recent years. Current inventory levels are relatively healthy, and demand is expected to improve as the traditional consumption peak approaches [7][10]. - **Price Drivers**: Factors such as the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on copper imports and a declining U.S. dollar index are likely to support copper price increases [10]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Metal Mining are highlighted as potential investment opportunities in the copper sector [10]. Additional Insights - The overall non-ferrous metals sector is gaining attention, with aluminum and steel showing sustained performance. The copper market is also beginning to show clearer turning points, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies [11].