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Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a challenge in bridging internal divisions on interest rate paths without new economic data to reference [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Internal Divisions - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson's recent speech highlights the dilemma of balancing persistent inflation risks against weakening employment [4]. - There is a significant divide among Federal Reserve officials regarding the decision to maintain or lower interest rates, with potential for at least three dissenting votes in the upcoming December FOMC meeting [8]. Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have decreased, with implied probabilities dropping to approximately 45%, down from 60% a week prior and significantly lower than 90% during the October meeting [4][5]. - Jefferson reiterated that current interest rates are "slightly restrictive," which may hinder U.S. economic growth, yet recent cuts have brought rates closer to a neutral zone [4]. Economic Data and Decision-Making - The absence of significant economic data due to government shutdowns has exacerbated divisions among policymakers, with some officials indicating they will oppose further cuts unless employment worsens or inflation improves [5][6]. - Concerns about inflation persist, with some officials fearing that new price pressures from tariffs could keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target for the next two years [6]. Diverging Perspectives - One faction of officials, including those appointed by Trump, is more focused on labor market conditions and believes that the risks of high inflation are overstated [7]. - Another group, including several regional Fed presidents and Governor Michael Barr, is increasingly worried about inflation risks and the implications of further easing monetary conditions [6][7]. Economic Indicators - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate that companies are cautious about hiring and layoffs, with signs of weakening consumer confidence and sluggish wage growth suggesting ongoing economic challenges [8].

【资讯导读】 ·瑞士经济Q3收缩降息压力骤增 【市场资讯】 ·美国前总统特朗普提议向除富人外的所有公民发放2000美元"关税分红"，称资金来自今年关税收入。 财政部长贝森特回应称，该计划须经国会批准。此举被视为应对公众对高生活成本不满的政治举措。 ·白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，当前就业市场释放出复杂信号，暗示增长可能放缓。但他指出 实际工资持续上涨，认为美联储应坚持"以数据为本"的决策路径，灵活应对经济变化。 ·美联储副主席杰斐逊指出，当前就业市场下行风险上升，而通胀上行压力略有缓解。他强调，随着利 率趋近中性水平，政策制定者应更加审慎、逐步调整。与此同时，理事沃勒明确支持12月再次降息，理 由是劳动力市场持续疲软，且货币政策正对中低收入群体造成负担。 ·美联储理事沃勒重申，他将在12月会议上支持降息，因就业数据连续数月表现疲弱。他表示，近期即 将公布的9月就业报告不太可能改变其立场，并强调目前无需担忧通胀反弹，政策重心应放在支撑劳动 力市场。 ·美联储官员警示就业风险呼吁谨慎降息 ·韩国收紧散户海外杠杆ETF投资门槛 ·欧元区经济前景上调但赤字风险隐现 ·日本Q3 GDP意外萎缩出口受挫拖累经济 ·尽 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials are expressing differing views on interest rate cuts, with some supporting further reductions while others remain cautious due to inflation concerns and economic data uncertainty [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports the recent 25 basis point rate cut and suggests that a slight further reduction may be appropriate given inflation is currently around 3%, above the 2% target, but has significantly decreased [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee adopts a more hawkish stance, indicating he has not yet decided on supporting a rate cut in December and emphasizes that the threshold for further cuts is higher due to persistent inflation above target for four and a half years [1] - Fed Governor Cook leans dovish, stating that the December meeting remains a potential rate cut opportunity, highlighting the dual risks of rising inflation and employment [2] Group 2: Economic Data and Policy Implications - Daly notes that despite the government shutdown causing data gaps, the Fed can rely on various surveys and business communications to inform policy decisions, asserting that they are not operating blindly [1] - Goolsbee warns against premature rate cuts in the context of incomplete data and unclear inflation trends, stressing that rates should decline in line with inflation rather than in advance [1] - Cook acknowledges the challenges posed by data gaps but believes the Fed has sufficient private data and survey information to support policy research [2] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market currently anticipates a 50% probability of a rate cut in December, but the outlook for policy has become more uncertain due to missing economic data, unclear inflation trends, and varying speeds of employment cooling [2]

All right, we got some breaking news from Washington Fed Governor Lisa Cook who is speaking in DC. Steve Leeman has those headlines. Steve.>> Uh, thanks Brian. The Olive for Fed policy continues to be somewhat confusing with Fed officials offering different forecasts from each other and even some officials taking both sides of the argument. Lisa Cook speaking in Washington said she supported the decision to cut rates last week.Uh, but says downside risks to employment are greater than upside risk to inflati ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a potential interest rate cut in December due to concerns about the labor market and expected inflation decline [1][2] - Waller emphasizes that the current inflation rate, based on the PCE index, is approximately 2.5%, indicating it is not significantly above the target of 2% and is expected to continue decreasing [3] - Waller's stance contrasts with other officials who express concerns about persistent inflation risks, highlighting a division within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy direction [1][2] Group 2 - Waller has been an early proponent of interest rate cuts compared to many of his colleagues, indicating a proactive approach to addressing employment risks [3] - He has previously opposed the decision to maintain interest rates in July, showcasing his consistent advocacy for a more accommodative monetary policy [3] - Waller's potential candidacy for the Federal Reserve Chair position after Powell's term ends adds a layer of political context to his statements and positions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Board member Waller advocates for a rate cut in December, citing concerns over the labor market and expected inflation decline [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - Waller emphasizes the need for a rate cut in December due to potential continued slowdown in job growth, stating that all data supports this action [2]. - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive month to address the evident labor market slowdown [2]. - Fed Chair Powell cautioned that another rate cut in December is not guaranteed, indicating uncertainty in future monetary policy [3]. Group 2: Inflation and Tariff Concerns - Waller downplays the inflation risks associated with Trump's tariffs, suggesting that excluding temporary tariff impacts, inflation measured by the PCE index is around 2.5% and expected to decline further [4]. - He believes that tariffs will only cause a one-time price spike and that the Fed should prioritize employment risks over inflation concerns [4]. Group 3: Waller's Position and Future Prospects - Waller, nominated by Trump in 2020, is one of the candidates being considered for the Fed Chair position after Powell's term ends in May next year [4]. - He has been an early advocate for rate cuts compared to many of his colleagues and previously opposed the decision to maintain rates in July [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should continue to lower interest rates in December due to ongoing risks in the labor market, as stated by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Waller emphasized that the current primary concern is the labor market, and he advocates for a rate cut in December based on data indicating the need for such action [1] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points for the second consecutive month to address a significant slowdown in the labor market during the summer [1] - Waller's comments come amid opposition from other Federal Reserve officials regarding the recent rate cut, citing persistent inflation risks [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Waller downplayed the inflation risks associated with President Trump's tariff policies, suggesting that if temporary tariff impacts are excluded, the inflation rate measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is approximately 2.5% [1] - He noted that while the inflation rate is not at the target of 2%, it is not significantly above it, and a decline is expected [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership - Waller has been an early advocate for rate cuts compared to most of his colleagues, arguing that tariffs only cause one-time price increases and that employment risks should take precedence [2] - He expressed willingness to accept the role of Federal Reserve Chair if asked by the President, indicating his potential candidacy for the position [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin mentioned that he is conducting a "second round" of interviews for candidates to succeed Powell, with Waller being one of the candidates [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Logan stated that the interest rate cut in September has alleviated employment risks [1] Group 1 - The September interest rate cut has had a positive impact on employment risk [1]

Economic Outlook - The labor market is gradually cooling, and inflation remains elevated, prompting the Federal Open Market Committee to lower the policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point [2] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with GDP growth at 1.6% in the first half of the year, down from 2.4% the previous year [3] - Growth in economic activity may be firmer than expected, driven by stronger consumer spending, although business investment continues to expand and the housing sector remains weak [4] Labor Market - The unemployment rate has remained low, but job gains have significantly slowed, reflecting a decline in labor force growth due to lower immigration and participation [5][6] - Layoffs and hiring remain low, with perceptions of job availability and hiring difficulty declining, indicating a softer labor market [6] Inflation Trends - Inflation has eased from mid-2022 highs but remains elevated, with total PCE prices rising 2.8% over the past year, including core PCE prices [7] - Disinflation is continuing for services, while inflation expectations have increased due to tariffs, although long-term expectations align with the 2% inflation goal [8] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions are focused on promoting maximum employment and stable prices, with the target range for the federal funds rate lowered to 3.75% to 4% [9] - The impact of higher tariffs is contributing to increased prices in certain goods, leading to higher overall inflation [9] - There is a reasonable expectation that inflationary effects may be short-lived, but there is a risk that they could become persistent, which needs to be managed [10]