会议后公布的经济预测显示，共有六名官员反对本次降息，其中包括两名具有投票权的FOMC成员。纪 要显示，这些反对意见主要集中在对通胀回落进展的判断上。 美联储12月会议纪要披露，最新一次降息并非建立在广泛共识之上。 当地时间12月29日，美联储12月政策会议纪要显示，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在决定降息前，对 美国经济面临的通胀与就业风险进行了较为充分的讨论。尽管委员会最终同意将联邦基金利率目标区间 下调25个基点，但会议记录表明，决策并非建立在广泛共识之上，多名官员对降息的必要性和时点持保 留意见，政策分歧有所扩大。 降息并非共识 纪要显示，12月9日至10日的货币政策会议上，美联储是在综合评估经济前景和风险分布后，同意将政 策利率下调至3.5%至3.75%。不过，即便是部分支持降息的官员，也认为这一决定"处于权衡之中"，他 们在不同情境下"本可以支持维持目标区间不变"。 支持降息的官员认为，近期新增就业放缓、失业率有所上升，表明劳动力市场下行风险自年中以来有所 增加。在这一背景下，适度放松政策有助于降低就业市场进一步走弱的可能性。纪要称，多数与会者最 终接受了这一判断，将降息视为一种前瞻性的风险管理举措 ...

吴说获悉，美联储公布的 12 月份会议纪要显示，今年以来美国实际 GDP 温和增长，劳动力市场持续降 温，薪资增长与去年同期大致相当；第三季度经济活动表现稳健，但今年前三个季度的平均增速仍偏温 和，低于此前对 2024 年的预期增速。政府停摆预计将对短期 GDP 构成拖累。工作人员预计，随着金融 条件改善及关税影响逐步减弱，2025 年后经济增速将略高于潜在水平，失业率逐步回落，通胀在短期 承压后于 2028 年回到 2%，但整体不确定性仍然较高。与会者普遍认为，通胀风险仍偏上行，而劳动 力市场相关风险偏下行。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） ...

美联储戴利表示，就业风险以及通货膨胀风险仍存。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在会后发表讲话时表示，短期内通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行。他明确表 示，明年年初加息不在讨论范围。点阵图显示，决策者预计2026年和2027年各降息一次，最终将利率降 至3%左右的长期目标。 降息决定公布后，市场各类资产表现分化。美元指数下跌0.43%，收于98.789。现货白银涨1.83%，报 61.7854美元/盎司，刷新历史高位。现货黄金上涨0.46%，报4227.37美元/盎司。 中国资产表现强劲，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨0.65%。阿特斯太阳能涨超5%，贝壳涨近4%，小马智 行涨超3%，阿里巴巴涨1.86%，百度涨1.81%。富时A50期指连续夜盘收涨0.31%。 美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌3.51个基点报4.149%，30年期美债收益率跌2.01个基点报 4.787%。 12月11日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%至3.75%之间。 这是美联储今年第三次降息，累计降息幅度达到75个基点。 市场对此次降息反应积极。美股三大指数集体收涨，道指上涨497.46点，涨幅1.05%，纳斯达克指数上 涨0.33%，标普500指数上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of recovery despite a significant drop in the stock market, indicating potential investment opportunities in the coming weeks [1][2]. Market Sentiment - Tom Lee suggests that the market may be nearing a bottom, while Bitwise's CIO views the current situation as a rare long-term buying opportunity [2]. - Data from Glassnode indicates an increase in addresses holding over 1000 BTC since the end of October, suggesting accumulation by large investors [2]. Cryptocurrency Performance - Bitcoin (BTC) is still in a bearish trend with no clear reversal signals, and the recent short positions taken at 93185 were well-timed [4]. - Ethereum (ETH) is experiencing similar trends, with recent price movements indicating potential traps for investors expecting a V-shaped recovery [4]. Investment Strategies - Short-term strategies suggest monitoring the 3080 level for potential bullish signals, with resistance levels identified at 3168, 3220, and 3270 [7]. - For Bitcoin, the 92000 level is critical; if it holds, bullish momentum may continue, with resistance at 93810, 95170, and 96590 [10]. Altcoin Trends - Certain altcoins, particularly those on centralized exchanges (CEX) like STRK and ASTER, have seen significant rebounds, but their sustainability depends on the overall market's performance [3]. - The performance of meme coins varies significantly across different blockchains, with SOL being favored for international trends and BSC for local trends [8][9]. Specific Coin Analysis - $DASH shows signs of a potential recovery if it can maintain levels above 79-80, with targets set for 104 or higher [18]. - $TAO has formed a significant support level and may aim for 400 if it can stabilize above key moving averages [20]. Notable Investments - Ark Invest has increased its holdings in cryptocurrency stocks such as Coinbase and Circle through two ETFs, indicating confidence in the sector [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a challenge in bridging internal divisions on interest rate paths without new economic data to reference [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Internal Divisions - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson's recent speech highlights the dilemma of balancing persistent inflation risks against weakening employment [4]. - There is a significant divide among Federal Reserve officials regarding the decision to maintain or lower interest rates, with potential for at least three dissenting votes in the upcoming December FOMC meeting [8]. Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have decreased, with implied probabilities dropping to approximately 45%, down from 60% a week prior and significantly lower than 90% during the October meeting [4][5]. - Jefferson reiterated that current interest rates are "slightly restrictive," which may hinder U.S. economic growth, yet recent cuts have brought rates closer to a neutral zone [4]. Economic Data and Decision-Making - The absence of significant economic data due to government shutdowns has exacerbated divisions among policymakers, with some officials indicating they will oppose further cuts unless employment worsens or inflation improves [5][6]. - Concerns about inflation persist, with some officials fearing that new price pressures from tariffs could keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target for the next two years [6]. Diverging Perspectives - One faction of officials, including those appointed by Trump, is more focused on labor market conditions and believes that the risks of high inflation are overstated [7]. - Another group, including several regional Fed presidents and Governor Michael Barr, is increasingly worried about inflation risks and the implications of further easing monetary conditions [6][7]. Economic Indicators - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate that companies are cautious about hiring and layoffs, with signs of weakening consumer confidence and sluggish wage growth suggesting ongoing economic challenges [8].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve officials warn of employment risks and call for cautious interest rate cuts [1] - South Korea tightens retail investors' overseas leveraged ETF investment thresholds to enhance risk awareness [2] - Eurozone economic outlook upgraded, but rising defense spending poses medium-term risks to government debt and fiscal deficits [2] Group 2 - Japan's Q3 GDP unexpectedly shrinks by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, annualized contraction of 1.8%, primarily due to high U.S. tariffs and weak domestic housing investment [2] - Switzerland's Q3 GDP contracts by 0.5%, driven by weak performance in the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors and sluggish service industry growth [2] - Singapore Exchange to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures contracts on November 24, marking a significant move towards digital asset derivatives in Asia [3] Group 3 - U.S. stock indices decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.18% to 46,590.24 points, S&P 500 down 0.92% to 6,672.41 points, and Nasdaq Composite down 0.84% to 22,708.07 points [4] - COMEX gold futures drop 1.20% to $4,045.10 per ounce, while silver futures decrease by 1.25% to $50.05 per ounce [5] - U.S. dollar index rises by 0.25% to 99.54, while the euro and British pound decline against the dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials are expressing differing views on interest rate cuts, with some supporting further reductions while others remain cautious due to inflation concerns and economic data uncertainty [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports the recent 25 basis point rate cut and suggests that a slight further reduction may be appropriate given inflation is currently around 3%, above the 2% target, but has significantly decreased [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee adopts a more hawkish stance, indicating he has not yet decided on supporting a rate cut in December and emphasizes that the threshold for further cuts is higher due to persistent inflation above target for four and a half years [1] - Fed Governor Cook leans dovish, stating that the December meeting remains a potential rate cut opportunity, highlighting the dual risks of rising inflation and employment [2] Group 2: Economic Data and Policy Implications - Daly notes that despite the government shutdown causing data gaps, the Fed can rely on various surveys and business communications to inform policy decisions, asserting that they are not operating blindly [1] - Goolsbee warns against premature rate cuts in the context of incomplete data and unclear inflation trends, stressing that rates should decline in line with inflation rather than in advance [1] - Cook acknowledges the challenges posed by data gaps but believes the Fed has sufficient private data and survey information to support policy research [2] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market currently anticipates a 50% probability of a rate cut in December, but the outlook for policy has become more uncertain due to missing economic data, unclear inflation trends, and varying speeds of employment cooling [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy direction remains unclear, with differing forecasts among officials regarding interest rate cuts and economic risks [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed Governor Lisa Cook supports the recent rate cut but emphasizes that downside risks to employment outweigh inflation risks, while maintaining that the current restrictive policy is necessary due to inflation exceeding the 2% target [2]. - San Francisco President Mary Daly highlights the need to reduce inflation while supporting the job market, advocating for a modestly restrictive policy that does not harm employment [3]. - Chicago Fed President Austin Gulby indicates that the criteria for a rate cut in December are more stringent compared to October, reflecting a cautious approach among Fed officials [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a potential interest rate cut in December due to concerns about the labor market and expected inflation decline [1][2] - Waller emphasizes that the current inflation rate, based on the PCE index, is approximately 2.5%, indicating it is not significantly above the target of 2% and is expected to continue decreasing [3] - Waller's stance contrasts with other officials who express concerns about persistent inflation risks, highlighting a division within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy direction [1][2] Group 2 - Waller has been an early proponent of interest rate cuts compared to many of his colleagues, indicating a proactive approach to addressing employment risks [3] - He has previously opposed the decision to maintain interest rates in July, showcasing his consistent advocacy for a more accommodative monetary policy [3] - Waller's potential candidacy for the Federal Reserve Chair position after Powell's term ends adds a layer of political context to his statements and positions [3]