专注于期权这一衍生品交易的资深交易员们越来越倾向于排除2026年美联储继续降息的预期，转而押注美联储全年将维 持利率不变，如果美联储全年真的像他们所预期的那样长期维系基准利率不变，他们的赌注就会得到积极回报。自12月 的多项劳动力市场统计数据公布以来，叠加最新CPI显示美国通胀降温节奏平稳，交易员们对于美联储2026年降息预期可 谓持续降温，包括12月非农在内的好坏参半劳动力市场数据暗示美国劳动力市场在年末呈现出小幅回暖，这些数据边际 上显著强化了"软着陆"叙事。 自上周五以来，这一"降息交易"主题就已经开始呈现出明显的疲软态势，当时美国最新的非农数据显示出就业人数温和 复苏以及失业率意外下降，这几乎完全消除了本月美联储政策会议继续宣布降息的可能性，并促使越来越多的利率期货 市场交易员大幅推迟了未来几个月降息的时机。 上周五的12月非农就业数据以及失业率公布之后，"CME美联储观察工具"显示，利率期货市场交易员们对于2026年美联 储降息押注从2025年底曾经定价的降息三次预期缩减至降息两次，且交易员们普遍押注2026年首次降息时机为6月，而不 是此前押注的3月。不过，"CME美联储观察工具"显示出的交易员降 ...

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market experienced increased volatility due to a stock market sell-off, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets [1] - A report indicated that the UK budget for this month will not raise income taxes, which negatively impacted the British pound [1] - The primary driver of market movements is the perception that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December is significantly lower than a few weeks ago [1] Market Reactions - More Federal Reserve officials issued cautious signals overnight, expressing reservations about further easing due to inflation concerns and signs of a relatively stable labor market [1] - This shift in expectations triggered a sell-off in high-valuation U.S. stocks and government bonds, which spread to Asian and European markets [1] - In the foreign exchange market, this led to a flow of funds towards the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, with the latest quotes showing a 0.5% decline in both USD/CHF and USD/JPY [1]