【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 亚洲早盘，、瑞郎和日元等一些避险资产走强，受对美联储独立性的担忧提振。此前美国总统特朗普表 示，他将把莉莎-库克从美联储理事会中除名。特朗普在Truth Social上发布了一封信，信中宣布立即将 库克免职。StoneX的Matt Simpson称："特朗普刚刚炒掉了他的第一位美联储理事。"这位高级市场分析 师补充说："随着特朗普采取行动削弱美联储的独立性，美元正被抛售。"黄金上涨0.4%，至每盎司3， 379.38美元；美元兑瑞郎下跌0.4%，至0.8030瑞郎；美元兑日元下跌0.5%，至147.07日元。 ...

周五纽约尾盘，美元兑日元跌0.97%，报146.94日元，美联储主席鲍威尔讲话后从148.50日元上方瞬间 跳水至147日元下方，本周累计下跌0.17%，整体呈现出M形走势。欧元兑美元涨0.99%、报1.1721，本 周累涨0.15%；英镑兑美元涨0.86%、报1.3527，本周累跌0.19%，几乎完全收复周一至周四持续、平滑 震荡下行所构成的跌幅；美元兑瑞郎跌0.92%、报0.8015，本周累跌0.66%。 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold increased by 1.0% to $3348.65 per ounce, continuing to rise since 10:00 AM Beijing time [1] - COMEX gold futures also rose by 1.0%, reaching $3392.4 per ounce [1] - Ethereum saw a significant increase from around $4100 to nearly $4230, with an overall daily rise of 1.7% [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin experienced a short-term surge from approximately $112,400, with an overall daily increase, returning above $113,800 [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell by about 2.2 basis points, hitting a new low below 4.2830% [1] - The US dollar against the Japanese yen declined nearly 0.5%, reaching a new low below 147 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against other currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound [1]. Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar depreciated by 0.31% against the Japanese yen, closing at 147.38 yen, with a trading range of 148.17 to 147.09 yen during the day [1]. - The euro appreciated by 0.25% against the US dollar [1]. - The British pound increased by 0.56% against the US dollar [1]. - The US dollar fell by 0.25% against the Swiss franc [1]. - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.23% against the US dollar, while the New Zealand dollar increased by 0.32% [1]. - The US dollar experienced a slight decline of 0.08% against the Canadian dollar [1]. - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.11% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone rose by 0.17% [1]. - The Danish krone increased by 0.26% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty appreciated by 0.28% [1].

Core Points - The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, rising by 0.71% to 149.52 yen, with a trading range of 147.81 to 149.53 yen during the day [1] - The release of US GDP data and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference led to two waves of upward movement in the market [1] - The euro and British pound both declined against the yen, with the euro down 0.52% and the pound down 0.13% [1] Currency Movements - The euro fell by 1.24% against the US dollar, while the British pound decreased by 0.84% against the dollar [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar dropped by 1.15% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar fell by 1.00% [1] - The US dollar appreciated against the Canadian dollar by 0.44% [1] Other Currency Trends - The Swedish krona declined by 1.47% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone decreased by 1.18% [1] - The Danish krone fell by 1.24% against the US dollar, while the Polish zloty dropped by 1.14% [1]

Group 1 - The euro declined by 1.30% against the US dollar, closing at 1.1588 after a period of high volatility following a tariff agreement between the EU and the US [1] - The euro also fell against the British pound by 0.76%, against the Swiss franc by 0.24%, and against the Danish krone by 0.01%, while it rose against the Polish zloty by 0.36% [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.62% against the US dollar, while the US dollar appreciated by 1.07% against the Swiss franc [1] Group 2 - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell by 0.70% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar dropped by 0.86% [2] - The Swedish krona declined by 0.96% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone decreased by 0.38% [2] - The Danish krone fell by 1.29% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty dropped by 1.65% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The currency market experienced fluctuations with the US dollar showing mixed performance against major currencies, particularly a decline against the Japanese yen and a rise against the euro and British pound [1] Currency Performance - The US dollar fell by 0.48% against the Japanese yen, closing at 146.67 yen, with a trading range of 147.95 to 146.31 yen during the day [1] - The euro remained stable against the yen, while the British pound decreased by 0.19% against the yen [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.50% against the US dollar, and the British pound increased by 0.30% against the US dollar [1] - The US dollar declined by 0.72% against the Swiss franc [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian dollar rose by 0.45% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar increased by 0.56% against the US dollar [1] - The US dollar fell by 0.57% against the Canadian dollar [1] Scandinavian Currencies - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.66% against the US dollar, while the Norwegian krone increased by 0.81% [1] - The Danish krone rose by 0.52% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty increased by 0.32% against the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline of the US dollar index, which has dropped over 10% this year, has led to substantial appreciation of several non-USD currencies, raising concerns about the underlying economic fundamentals driving these changes [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Dollar Decline - Domestic political factors in the US have undermined the perceived independence of the Federal Reserve, contributing to the dollar's decline [3]. - The relative decrease in returns on US assets has made them less attractive compared to international markets, with major US stock indices underperforming compared to European and Asian markets [3][4]. - A diversification of global capital flows away from USD assets has been observed, with a net outflow of $14.2 billion from US securities and banks in April 2025 [4]. - Decreased confidence in US assets due to fiscal imbalances and sustainability issues has led to higher risk premiums, further diminishing the dollar's appeal [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US economy has shown signs of a reversal in expectations, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.5% in Q1 2025 and a downward revision of GDP growth forecast to 1.4% [5]. - The significant appreciation of other currencies is not driven by their economic fundamentals, but rather reflects the dollar's weakness, which could negatively impact exports for those economies facing dual pressures from tariffs and currency appreciation [5].

Core Insights - The article analyzes the differential impact of various types of news on currency pairs, highlighting that economic structure, market liquidity, risk attributes, and policy sensitivity contribute to these differences [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact by News Type - Economic data news (e.g., employment, inflation) significantly affects major currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, which are highly sensitive to US and European data [1]. - Commodity currencies (AUD/USD, USD/CAD) are more influenced by commodity prices and Chinese demand data [2]. - Emerging market currencies (USD/CNH, USD/BRL) experience volatility driven by capital flows, particularly under conditions like a 300 basis point inversion in US-China interest rates, which can pressure the Renminbi [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Policy News - For USD currency pairs, Federal Reserve decisions dominate the market, with hawkish statements boosting the dollar index; after a rate cut in September 2024, US stocks surged while non-USD currencies weakened [3]. - Currency pairs like JPY and CHF are sensitive to sudden changes in central bank policies, as seen in 2022 when the Bank of Japan's intervention led to a 500-point drop in USD/JPY within 10 minutes, although the trend reversed a week later [3]. - Emerging market currencies exhibit strong but fragile policy independence; for instance, a rate cut by the People's Bank of China in 2025 may lead to short-term depreciation of the Renminbi, followed by a rebound as the economy stabilizes [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Sudden Events - Safe-haven currencies (JPY, CHF, USD) are sought after during escalations in conflict, as evidenced by the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis which increased demand for the Yen and Franc [4]. - Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD) are vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, illustrated by a 76% increase in shipping costs due to a 2025 European port strike, which negatively impacted the Australian dollar [4]. - The British pound (GBP/USD) is highly sensitive to political risks, with significant volatility observed during events like the 2016 Brexit referendum [4]. Group 4: Currency Pair Characteristics - Major currency pairs are most sensitive to US economic data and Federal Reserve policies, typically exhibiting volatility ranges of 50 to 300 points during events like NFP and CPI releases [5]. - Safe-haven currencies react to geopolitical events and global risk sentiment, with typical volatility spikes of 2% to 5% [5]. - Commodity currencies respond to commodity price changes and Chinese demand data, with volatility typically ranging from 30 to 100 points [5]. - Emerging market currencies show significant volatility variation (5% to over 80%) based on Federal Reserve policies and capital flows, with examples of the South African Rand and Turkish Lira depreciating over 80% during tightening periods [5]. Group 5: Underlying Reasons for Differences - Liquidity stratification exists, with major currency pairs like EUR/USD having high liquidity and limited spread expansion, while emerging market currencies can see spreads widen significantly during news events [7]. - Policy transmission efficiency varies, with developed countries having mature expectations management (e.g., the Fed's dot plot), while emerging markets often experience unexpected policy shifts [8]. - Economic structure dependency is evident, as resource-based currencies (AUD, CAD) are closely linked to commodity prices, while manufacturing-exporting currencies (KRW, CNY) are more affected by trade data [9]. - The risk preference transmission chain indicates that risk events lead to safe-haven currency appreciation, which subsequently triggers unwinding of carry trades, causing declines in commodity currencies [10]. Group 6: Trading Strategy Recommendations - For major currency pairs, a breakout strategy is suggested, entering trades three minutes after data releases, validated by technical levels [11]. - For safe-haven and commodity currencies, a mean reversion strategy is recommended following geopolitical events, such as buying the Swiss Franc after a sharp decline due to central bank intervention [12]. - For emerging market currencies, a three-fold verification process is advised, considering policy intervention, fundamentals (trade surplus), and technical support, while avoiding unilateral bets [13].

Group 1 - The US dollar against the Japanese yen decreased by 0.05%, closing at 146.248 yen, with an intraday trading range of 145.756 to 146.787 yen [1] - The euro against the US dollar fell by 0.21% [1] - The British pound against the US dollar declined by 0.04% [1] - The Swiss franc against the US dollar dropped by 0.31% [1]