11月21日周五，美元兑瑞郎上演单边下行行情，昨日收于0.8251，今日盘中最高仅触及0.8263便转头下 探，最低触及0.8048的阶段性低位，当前报0.8049，单日跌幅已达2.45%。这波跌势并非孤立事件—— 自10月0.9010的高点算起，该汇率已累计回撤超10.6%，创下2023年以来单月最大跌幅。市场正被两股 力量拉扯：一边是中东局势升级催生的瑞郎避险买盘，一边是美联储坚守高利率的美元支撑逻辑，而即 将披露的瑞士三季度GDP细节与通胀数据，被视作打破僵局的"钥匙"。 技术形态上，美元兑瑞郎已跌破前期震荡平台下沿，形成"断头铡刀"走势，当前0.8049处于下行趋势的 加速段，短期多空争夺聚焦0.8000-0.8050关键区间。阻力端需重点关注0.8150-0.8180，这里既是5日均 线所在位，也是11月中旬回调的密集成交区，反弹至此将面临套牢盘抛压；支撑端则以0.8000整数关口 为核心，下方0.7980是2022年12月以来的低点连线支撑，一旦失守，可能触发程序化交易抛售，下看 0.7950。 指标发出明确的"超卖反弹"信号：汇率与20日均线偏离度达3.2%，远超常态区间；MACD在零轴下出 现 ...

美瑞关税谈判传闻利好瑞郎，市场预期美国对瑞士商品进口税率或从39%下调至15%，若落地将改善瑞 士出口企业盈利，增强经常项目稳健性，为瑞郎提供额外支撑。 美元兑瑞郎技术分析 支撑位：下方即时支撑为前期低点0.7918-0.7922区间，若跌破将下探0.7900整数关口，更深层次支撑关 注0.7885（10月28日低点），该位置构成近期重要支撑平台。阻力位：短期上方阻力聚焦0.7950-0.7960 区间，进一步阻力指向11月6日高点0.8012，突破后或打开向0.8050的反弹空间，但当前动能不足，突破 难度较大。 周一（11月17日）美元兑瑞士法郎交投于0.7942附近，呈小幅上行态势，当前汇价受美联储降息预期、 瑞士央行稳利率立场及避险需求共同影响，维持低位震荡格局，技术面偏向弱势整理，关键点位突破将 决定后续方向。 "美联储观察"显示，12月降息25个基点的概率已升至65%，鸽派官员发声支持宽松，强化市场对利率偏 紧的担忧，美元指数承压于99.50附近，难以给汇价提供上行动力。美国政府停摆结束后，积压经济数 据即将集中发布，市场提前定价经济放缓风险，进一步抑制美元反弹空间。 瑞士央行多次表态当前利率水平 ...

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market experienced increased volatility due to a stock market sell-off, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets [1] - A report indicated that the UK budget for this month will not raise income taxes, which negatively impacted the British pound [1] - The primary driver of market movements is the perception that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December is significantly lower than a few weeks ago [1] Market Reactions - More Federal Reserve officials issued cautious signals overnight, expressing reservations about further easing due to inflation concerns and signs of a relatively stable labor market [1] - This shift in expectations triggered a sell-off in high-valuation U.S. stocks and government bonds, which spread to Asian and European markets [1] - In the foreign exchange market, this led to a flow of funds towards the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, with the latest quotes showing a 0.5% decline in both USD/CHF and USD/JPY [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the movements of the Euro, British Pound, and other currencies against the US Dollar, indicating a mixed performance in the foreign exchange market on November 11. Currency Movements - The Euro appreciated by 0.25% against the US Dollar, reaching 1.1586, and stabilized around 1.1560 before a short-term surge at 21:21 [1] - The British Pound decreased by 0.06% against the US Dollar, trading at 1.3166, and experienced a sharp decline to a daily low of 1.3117 following the release of UK employment data at 15:00 [1] - The Euro gained 0.32% against the British Pound [1] Other Currency Pairs - The US Dollar depreciated by 0.59% against the Swiss Franc, settling at 0.8003, with a notable decline after 21:00 [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian Dollar fell by 0.11% against the US Dollar, while the New Zealand Dollar rose by 0.19% [1] - The US Dollar also saw a decrease of 0.07% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish Krona appreciated by 0.63% against the US Dollar [1] - The Norwegian Krona increased by 0.79% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krona rose by 0.25% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty gained 0.38% against the US Dollar, while the Hungarian Forint saw a slight decline of 0.05% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and other currencies on November 10th, with notable movements in commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars [1] Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar rose by 0.39% against the Japanese yen, reaching 154.02 yen, with a trading range of 153.36 to 154.25 yen throughout the day [1] - The euro increased by 0.36% against the Japanese yen, while the British pound rose by 0.56% against the same currency [1] - The euro dipped by 0.04% against the US dollar, whereas the British pound appreciated by 0.15% against the US dollar [1] - The Australian dollar gained 0.71% against the US dollar, trading at 0.6538, with a notable V-shaped movement observed [1] - The New Zealand dollar increased by 0.43% against the US dollar, while the Canadian dollar fell by 0.19% against the US dollar [1] - The Swedish krona rose by 0.23% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krona increased by 0.43%, while the Danish krone slightly decreased by 0.03% [1] - The Polish zloty appreciated by 0.17% against the US dollar, and the Hungarian forint rose by 0.11% against the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is currently experiencing a strong oscillation supported by fundamentals, trading around 0.8089 after reaching a psychological level of 0.8100 in the North American session [1] Group 1: USD Performance - The recent strength of the USD is attributed to the Federal Reserve's "hawkish easing" stance, despite a 25 basis point rate cut last week [1] - The Fed's communication suggests that further easing is not guaranteed, leading to a reduction in market expectations for a December rate cut, which supports the USD [1] - The USD index has surpassed 100.00, reaching its highest level since early August, with an increase of nearly 0.20% on that day [1] Group 2: CHF Performance - The Swiss Franc's performance is influenced by weaker-than-expected inflation data, raising market speculation about the Swiss National Bank potentially discussing a "broader toolbox" for easing [2] - Although a shift to a more accommodative policy is not imminent, it could lower neutral interest rates and real interest differentials, diminishing the relative attractiveness of the CHF [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The resistance level for the USD/CHF pair is identified at 0.8100, with a prior high retracement level at 0.8098 [2] - Support levels are seen at 0.8080 (the mid-point of the trading range) and 0.8066 (the lower boundary of the range), with a significant static support at 0.8035 if the price drops below these levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly focusing on the performance of the Euro, British Pound, and various commodity currencies against the US Dollar on November 3rd. Currency Performance - The Euro declined by 0.17% against the US Dollar, closing at 1.1522 [1] - The British Pound fell by 0.08%, ending at 1.3142 against the US Dollar [1] - The US Dollar appreciated by 0.41% against the Swiss Franc, reaching 0.8079, with a peak of 0.8092 later in the day [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian Dollar decreased by 0.13% against the US Dollar [1] - The New Zealand Dollar dropped by 0.26% against the US Dollar [1] - The US Dollar rose by 0.30% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Other Currencies - The Swedish Krona increased by 0.09% against the US Dollar [1] - The Norwegian Krona slightly decreased by 0.03% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krona fell by 0.11% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty declined by 0.12% against the US Dollar [1] - The Hungarian Forint appreciated by 0.06% against the US Dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, as the Swiss franc continues to strengthen against major currencies, raising concerns in the market [1]. Group 1: Swiss National Bank's Position - Petra Tschudin, a member of the SNB governing board, stated that while interest rates remain the primary tool for monetary policy, the bank will not shy away from intervening in the foreign exchange market when needed [1]. - The SNB has a history of intervening in the market when necessary, indicating a proactive approach to currency management [1]. Group 2: Currency Performance - The Swiss franc has appreciated approximately 13% against the US dollar and over 1% against the euro this year [1]. - Last week, the exchange rate of the Swiss franc against the euro approached its highest level in nearly a decade, prompting the SNB to signal its close monitoring of market dynamics [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current exchange rate of USD/CHF is stabilizing above the 0.8000 level, with resistance levels noted at 0.8030-0.8040 and support levels at 0.7990-0.8000 [2].

Group 1 - The article highlights the focus of traders on the upcoming US inflation report, which has been delayed due to the government shutdown, now in its 22nd day, marking the second-longest in history [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index remains flat as traders prepare for a potential strengthening of the dollar, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [1] - Spectra Markets' president suggests a bullish outlook on the dollar over the next two weeks, recommending long positions on USD/JPY and short positions on AUD/USD and EUR/USD [1] Group 2 - The British pound lags behind other G10 currencies as UK inflation unexpectedly stabilizes at 3.8% year-on-year in September, leading traders to increase bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England before the end of the year [1] - The USD/JPY remains stable at 151.88, with Japan experiencing its first increase in exports in five months, while the Prime Minister has ordered measures to alleviate inflationary pressures [1] - The EUR/USD rises by 0.1% to 1.1610, while the USD/CAD declines by 0.2% to 1.3991, with the Bank of Canada set to hold a meeting next week [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly focusing on the performance of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and other currencies on October 16th. Currency Performance - The US dollar depreciated by 0.43% against the Japanese yen, closing at 150.41 yen, with an intraday trading range of 151.40 to 150.21 yen [1] - The euro fell by 0.07% against the yen, while the British pound decreased by 0.17% against the yen [1] - Conversely, the euro appreciated by 0.39% against the US dollar, and the British pound rose by 0.25% against the US dollar [1] - The US dollar also saw a decline of 0.49% against the Swiss franc [1] Commodity Currencies - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar decreased by 0.40% against the US dollar, while the New Zealand dollar experienced a slight increase of 0.03% against the US dollar [1] - The US dollar appreciated by 0.06% against the Canadian dollar [1] Other Currency Movements - The Polish zloty rose by 0.43% against the US dollar, and the Hungarian forint increased by 0.55% against the US dollar [1]