政策层面，瑞士央行连续维持0%利率不变，虽未关闭负利率大门，但对重启负利率持谨慎态度，同时 明确将在必要时干预外汇市场，缓解瑞郎过度升值压力。美国方面，去美元化加速、财政赤字高企及降 息预期，削弱美元吸引力，美瑞利差收窄进一步支撑瑞郎走强。 技术面看，美元兑瑞郎长期处于下行通道，价格中枢持续下移。日线级别，汇价受EMA50压制，RSI发 出负面信号，短期跌破看涨修正趋势线，整体偏向弱势，但受0.7725关键支撑牵制，多空博弈加剧。 关键点位：美元兑瑞郎上方重点关注0.7750及0.7800压力区，突破则有望缓解下行压力；下方需守 0.7725支撑，跌破或加速下探0.7700关口，进一步调整或测试0.7680区域。 2月27日，美元兑瑞士法郎实时汇率报0.7733，微跌0.0646%，日内波幅0.7727-0.7747，呈窄幅震荡；瑞 郎兑人民币报8.8472，微涨0.0619%，延续近期强势格局。当前瑞郎凭借避险属性持续走强，受全球贸 易不确定性、瑞士央行政策取向及美欧货币政策分化影响，短期维持强势整理，中期走势取决于避险需 求延续性与央行干预力度。 瑞郎持续走强的核心支撑是其"最像黄金"的避险属性。全球贸易 ...

摩根士丹利策略师表示，在美国政策不确定性加剧的背景下，市场对瑞郎避险地位的信心不断增强，该货币兑美元有望大涨17%。 由戴维・亚当斯（David Adams）牵头的策略团队在报告中写道，瑞士的低通胀、稳健财政以及资产安全性，令瑞郎堪称最像黄金的避险货币。 他们指出，在悲观情境下，美元兑瑞郎将跌至0.64的历史低位。周一该货币对交投于0.776附近。 与此同时，对冲基金也在押注瑞郎走强。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）最新周度数据显示，杠杆基金目前持有自去年6月以来最大规模的瑞郎净多头头 寸，一周前刚从净空头转为净多头。 上月，瑞郎兑欧元与美元均升至十多年来最强水平。瑞士债务水平温和、经济稳定、政策可预期，与美国政策混乱形成对比，叠加地缘风险上升，吸引投资 者涌入。 尽管瑞郎走强会提升瑞士央行入市干预以压制本币、缓解通缩压力的风险，但越来越多的经济学家认为，该国央行目前抑制瑞郎走强的意愿有所下降。 摩根士丹利预计瑞郎兑其他货币将继续走强，欧元兑瑞郎有望从当前约0.91的水平下跌5%至0.87。 亚当斯表示："瑞郎是一种被忽视、被低估的避险资产，其升值幅度与速度或将超出投资者预期与市场定价。"他补充称，瑞郎是最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the Euro, British Pound, and commodity currencies against the US Dollar during the week. Group 1: Currency Performance - The Euro appreciated by 0.04% against the US Dollar, closing at 1.1875, with a weekly gain of 0.51% [1] - The British Pound increased by 0.33% against the US Dollar over the week [1] - The US Dollar depreciated by 1.07% against the Swiss Franc [1] Group 2: Commodity Currencies - The Australian Dollar rose by 0.89% against the US Dollar [1] - The New Zealand Dollar increased by 0.44% against the US Dollar [1] - The US Dollar fell by 0.41% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Group 3: Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish Krona appreciated by 1.31% against the US Dollar [1] - The Norwegian Krone increased by 1.98% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krone rose by 0.50% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty gained 0.73% against the US Dollar [1] - The Hungarian Forint increased by 0.14% against the US Dollar [1]

彭博美元指数结束连续四个交易日的下跌走势，于纽约汇市实现企稳。避险属性突出的日元和瑞郎获得 市场买盘支撑，汇率走强。 加拿大养老金计划投资委员会将瑞士法郎、日元及黄金列为美元潜在替代选项，反映出国际长线资金对 美元资产配置的调整倾向。欧洲多家养老金基金计划减持美债及美股，进一步推动市场避险情绪升温， 资金持续流入具备保值属性的日元资产与瑞郎资产。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1美元兑换152.94日元，1美元兑换0.7697瑞士法郎。避险买盘成为支撑日元和瑞郎 汇率的核心动力，市场资金在规避风险需求推动下，转向低波动、高安全边际的避险币种，带动两类货 币汇率获得上行支撑。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 ...

黑色星期五之后是黑色星期一，全球大宗商品在亚洲盘进一步暴跌，现货黄金盘中一度下跌10%，现货白银盘中跌超16%。恐慌的情绪跨市场蔓 延，包括A股与韩国KOSPI在内的亚洲股市一片绿油油。 当风险源头来自黄金，哪些资产在本轮市场洗牌中成为了"避风港"呢？ 美元和美债：自去年4月"去美元化"以来，贵金属一直是海外投资者削减美元资产的重要替代品之一。而这两天贵金属的暴跌让这一进程出 现了短暂的逆转，大家重新转头去买入美元和美债，美元指数从周五低位反弹100点回到97.1上方，美债收益率全面下行，1Y sofr一度下跌 5bp至3.44%，10Y美债收益率也回落至4.21%附近。 而曾经的避险货币——日元和瑞郎，却悄悄沉没在这轮暴跌中。 因瑞士有黄金加工出口的体质，CHF汇率走势（右轴倒序）近期与黄金价格相关性增强，EURCHF上周跌破0.92关口，创2015年瑞郎脱钩以 来的最低水平。而当黄金暴跌时，本应展现出避险属性的瑞郎受金价拖累，反而阻拦了EURCHF的继续下跌。 日元的疲弱更不必说，根据朝日新闻民调，高市早苗领导的执政联盟有望在众议院选举中获得超过300席（共465席），如果选举结果不出现 重大变故，高市早 ...

昨晚全球市场，上演了一场教科书级的"连锁反应"！美元指数单日暴涨约0.9%，创下7个月来最大涨 幅；而黄金白银则遭遇史诗级暴跌。这背后，是同一个推手在搅动风云。 那么，关键问题来了：美元的这波强势反弹，在你看来是"昙花一现"的技术回调，还是新一轮趋势反转 的开始？ 这会如何影响你对外资流向和A股核心资产的判断？ 帮主看来，这场波动传递了一个核心信号：全球宏观交易的"叙事"正在快速切换。市场从前期的"避 险"与"弱美元"交易，迅速转向对"更强硬美联储"与"强美元"的重新定价。所有相关资产都在进行激烈 的头寸调整。 这对我们的直接启示是：必须重新评估"美元走势"这个核心变量对你所有持仓的潜在影响。短期内，与 美元负相关的资产（如黄金、部分商品）波动可能加剧。我们的策略要更灵活：拥抱确定性，警惕高波 动。 接下来，市场将密切关注这位新主席的首次表态，以验证或证伪当前的"鹰派"预期。这将是下一 个关键转折点。 这就像一场精准的"多米诺骨牌"效应。特朗普提名鹰派美联储新主席的预期，成了第一张倒下的牌，它 推高了美元。强势美元转身就给了以美元计价的黄金白银一记重拳，导致其暴跌。紧接着，与大宗商品 紧密挂钩的澳元、瑞郎等货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar experienced a significant increase, marking its largest single-day gain since July, while precious metals like gold and silver plummeted, affecting the exchange rates of currencies from the Australian dollar to the Swiss franc [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The US Dollar Index (DXY) ended the month with an approximate 0.9% increase, despite a decline of about 1.4% in January, which was the worst performance since August [1][2]. - The rebound of the dollar was attributed to the drop in precious metal prices and the appointment of Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chairman [1][2]. Group 2: Currency Impact - The decline in precious metals has led to significant depreciation in currencies such as the Australian dollar, Swiss franc, and Swedish krona, which are heavily influenced by precious metal prices [1][2]. - Silver prices recorded the largest single-day drop in history, while gold prices experienced their largest decline since the early 1980s, ending a previous upward trend [1][2].

截至2026年1月30日，瑞郎兑美元报1.3043，较前一交易日微跌0.3522%，当日开盘1.3089，盘中最高触 及1.3099，最低下探至1.3012，延续近期强势震荡态势。同期美元兑瑞郎跌破0.7640关口，创下176个月 新低，凸显瑞郎的强势格局。开年以来，瑞郎依托避险属性与政策支撑持续走强，累计涨幅超2.5%， 成为全球汇市中稳定性较强的交易标的，1月30日盘中走势贴合历史动荡时期的稳健表现，印证其传统 避险货币的核心价值，当前多空博弈围绕前期高点展开，核心聚焦瑞士央行政策动向与全球风险情绪变 动。 瑞士央行(SNB)的稳健货币政策的是支撑瑞郎走强的核心内生动力。2025年12月货币政策会议中，央行 以全票决议维持政策利率在0%不变，2026年1月政策纪要进一步明确这一立场，行长施莱格尔公开表态 重启负利率的门槛极高，即便出现短期负通胀也不会转向宽松，市场普遍预期当前利率水平将维持至 2027年下半年。此次政策坚守既契合瑞士低通胀格局，也为钟表、制药等出口支柱产业减负，缓解汇率 强势带来的出口压力。 此外，美国联邦检察官对美联储主席鲍威尔的调查引发市场恐慌，进一步推动避险资金涌入瑞郎资产， InT ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing significant weakness, with a notable downtrend and a breach of key support levels, indicating a broader asset reallocation in the forex market away from dollar assets towards currencies and asset classes with higher relative attractiveness [1][5]. Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index was around 96.00 during the European session, showing a pronounced downtrend after previously reaching a high of 100.3900 [1][5]. - The index briefly rebounded to 99.4940 earlier this year but failed to maintain strength, subsequently accelerating its decline [1][5]. - Key support at 97.00 was effectively breached, with the index dipping to a low of 95.5660 before a slight recovery to around 96 [1][5]. Group 2: Currency Movements - The euro gained 0.3% against the dollar, reaching 1.1990, approaching the psychological level of 1.2000 [1][5]. - The dollar fell 0.4% against the Swiss franc, trading at 0.7650, while the Australian dollar surged 0.7% to 0.7090, nearing a two-year high [1][5]. - These movements reflect a widespread reallocation of assets in the forex market, driven by a reassessment of the long-term pricing logic of the dollar [1][5]. Group 3: Precious Metals Impact - Gold surged 2.5% on the day and has risen over 11% for the week, with prices around $5,550, nearing the $5,600 mark [2][6]. - Silver also strengthened, surpassing $120 and reaching new highs, indicating increased demand for hedging against inflation and geopolitical uncertainties [2][6]. - The rise in precious metals typically suggests a decline in real interest rate expectations or an increase in risk aversion, both of which diminish the dollar's attractiveness [2][6]. Group 4: Economic and Policy Factors - The decline of the dollar is attributed to multiple factors, including fluctuating trade policies and tariffs, which create instability in economic growth and interest rate expectations [2][7]. - Geopolitical uncertainties have raised risk premiums but have not translated into a unilateral benefit for the dollar, leading to a diversified investment approach favoring currencies like the euro and Australian dollar [2][7]. - Discussions around the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are gaining traction, affecting market confidence in long-term inflation and interest rate frameworks [3][7].

摘要今日周四(1月29日))亚盘时段，伦敦金最新报价为1239.52元/克，较前一交易日上涨29.99元，涨幅 2.48%，日内呈现高位震荡走势。当日开盘价报1209.72元/克，盘中最高触及1249.13元/克，最低下探至 1209.47元/克。 今日周四(1月29日))亚盘时段，伦敦金最新报价为1239.52元/克，较前一交易日上涨29.99元，涨幅 2.48%，日内呈现高位震荡走势。当日开盘价报1209.72元/克，盘中最高触及1249.13元/克，最低下探至 1209.47元/克。 【要闻速递】 美联储1月议息会按下"暂停键"，利率维持3.5%-3.75%不变，既未加息也未降息，主打"观望"。会上出 现分歧：理事米兰与沃勒支持降息25个基点，急于为市场松绑;鲍威尔则重申当前利率已处中性区间上 端，强调"政策无固定路线，一切看数据"，并明确若关税推升的通胀见顶回落，降息将提上日程，同时 提醒继任者远离政治干扰，专注本职。简言之，鲍威尔既不冒进也不急于降息，先看数据;两位同僚已 按捺不住"放水"冲动，后续走向全看通胀表现。 特朗普一句"对美元贬值挺舒服"，直接让美元暴跌1.1%，创去年4月来最大单日跌幅; ...