最后咱们快速过几个焦点个股，大家也能感受下市场的热度：网易昨天盘中刚创了历史新高，它家《命运》手游在美区iOS下载榜霸榜好几天了，盘前还 涨了1%；阿里刚上的"高德扫街榜"，一天就有4000万用户，直接成了国内最大的美食榜；蔚来又拿到10亿美元融资，小鹏的飞行器在阿联酋拿到了飞行 证，咱们国内的科技和车企也在悄悄发力。 作为干了20年财经记者、又蹲守中长线投资的老炮，帮主得跟大家掰扯掰扯，这波美股涨得这么猛，到底是跟风炒情绪，还是有真东西在支撑？核心就 一个事儿：市场现在几乎认定，美联储下周三开会，十有八九要降息了。 说到底，今天美股这波新高，本质是市场提前给降息"打了预防针"。但大家别光盯着眼前的涨幅，中长线看，下周美联储到底降多少、会后声明怎么说， 才是真正的关键。毕竟咱们做投资不是赌短期涨跌，得跟着政策和经济趋势走。跟着帮主，咱们慢慢把这波行情的来龙去脉摸清楚，不慌不忙做判断。 更有意思的是就业端，昨天每周失业金申请人数飙到26.3万，创了快三年新高，比预期多了快3万。加上前几天PPI还意外降了0.1%，这一串数据摆在一 起，等于告诉美联储：经济增速在放缓，就业也有点松劲，是时候松松货币政策了。所以现在 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rise last week, with cyclical sectors leading the gains. The real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors were among the top three gainers, while coal, banking, and automotive sectors were among the top three losers. The core driver of the market was the expectation of supply-side reform and the "small essay" about the restart of shantytown renovation on the demand side, which led to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth sectors. With the policy focusing on the supply side, the supply and demand are moving towards balance, which is beneficial for price index repair and has a positive impact on the stock market's profitability. The strong market last week was also supported by a high market risk appetite, including factors such as the non-escalation of trade friction risks, new highs in the US stock market, and positive domestic policy paths. The bullish pattern of the market is expected to continue as long as there are no unexpected negative factors. The factors that could reverse the trend may be intensified external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment, which need to be dynamically tracked. This week, attention should be paid to the release of domestic economic data [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the market continued to rise, with cyclical sectors leading. The real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors were the top three gainers, while coal, banking, and automotive sectors were the top three losers. The market's core driver was the expectation of supply-side reform and the "small essay" about the restart of shantytown renovation on the demand side, leading to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth sectors. The market's strength was also supported by a high market risk appetite, including factors such as the non-escalation of trade friction risks, new highs in the US stock market, and positive domestic policy paths [1]. - **Future Outlook**: Currently, although the index is at a relatively high level, the market risk appetite remains positive. Without unexpected negative factors, the bullish pattern of the market is expected to continue. The factors that could reverse the trend may be intensified external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment, which are difficult to predict in advance and need to be dynamically tracked. This week, attention should be paid to the release of domestic economic data [2]. - **Factors to Watch**: Domestic economy, progress of the "anti-involution" policy implementation, and expectations of the Federal Reserve's policies [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short-term Strategy**: For intraday trading, the 1-minute and 5-minute K-line charts can be used as a reference. The stop-loss and take-profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The core operating ranges for the IF2507, IH2507, IC2507, and IM2507 contracts are expected to be between 3894 and 4095 points, 2686 and 2810 points, 5842 and 6234 points, and 6227 and 6646 points respectively [4]. - **Cross-variety Strategy**: Due to the unclear trend, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Market Data Review - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.02%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.31%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.08%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 1.34%, Germany's DAX index rose 1.97%, and France's CAC40 index rose 1.73%. In the Asia-Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.61%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.93%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% [8]. - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have all risen. Last week, all major market indices also showed an upward trend [8]. - **Industry Performance in Spot Market**: In the CSI 300 index, most industries rose last week, with the pharmaceutical, telecommunications, and industrial sectors leading the gains. In the CSI 500 index, most industries also rose, with the financial real estate, energy, and raw material sectors leading the gains [10]. - **Stock Index Futures Performance**: Last week, the IM2507 contract of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude among the main contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both increased. The basis (futures - spot) of the main contracts of stock index futures and the cross-variety ratios also showed certain trends [12][14][20]. - **Index Valuation**: Based on weekly data, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.93 times, the CSI 300 index is 13.02 times, the SSE 50 index is 11.18 times, the CSI 500 index is 27.66 times, and the CSI 1000 index is 36.02 times [21][22]. - **Market Fundamentals**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity funds showed certain trends. The capital interest rate declined last week, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [24].