Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The macro - sentiment has weakened, leading to a downward oscillation in the chlor - alkali futures market. The PVC and caustic soda futures prices have both declined. The PVC market is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment in the short term, and the supply pressure is high while the demand is weak. The caustic soda market price fluctuates more, with high supply pressure and rigid demand from the alumina sector [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The PVC main contract closed at 5149 yuan/ton, down 224 yuan. The East China basis was - 89 yuan/ton, up 134 yuan; the South China basis was - 89 yuan/ton, up 164 yuan [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 5060 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 5060 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 134 yuan/ton, up 181 yuan; the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 506 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan; the PVC export profit was - 28.2 dollars/ton, down 8.6 dollars [1]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The PVC factory inventory was 35.7 tons, down 1.0 tons; the PVC social inventory was 42.7 tons, up 1.6 tons. The PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate was 79.21%, up 1.69%; the PVC ethylene - based operation rate was 66.95%, down 1.36%; the overall PVC operation rate was 75.81%, up 0.84% [1]. - **Downstream Order Situation**: The production enterprise's pre - sales volume was 79.5 tons, up 9.9 tons [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The SH main contract closed at 2593 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan. The Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis was 1 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan [1]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda was quoted at 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda was quoted at 1330 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The Shandong caustic soda single - product profit was 1603 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 659.5 yuan/ton, up 40.0 yuan; the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 687.53 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan; the Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 1734.34 yuan/ton, up 14.50 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.84 tons, up 2.45 tons; the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.31 tons, down 0.09 tons. The caustic soda operation rate was 84.00%, up 1.40% [2]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The alumina operation rate was 85.45%, up 1.84%; the East China printing and dyeing operation rate was 58.89%, unchanged; the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 84.97%, up 0.42% [2]. Strategies - **PVC**: For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. For the inter - delivery spread strategy, go short on the V09 - 01 spread when it is high [4]. - **Caustic Soda**: For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. For the inter - delivery spread strategy, go short on the SH2509 - SH2601 spread [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of methanol plants in operation for over 20 years, with the proportion of obsolete methanol plant capacity in China at 5%. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments [3]. - The strong performance of coking coal has driven up the methanol futures price in the coal - related sector, and the rebound in thermal coal prices has also increased the cost of methanol production [3]. - The decline in port inventories this week exceeded expectations due to slow unloading rates. However, high overseas operating rates mean significant future arrival pressure, and some MTO plant maintenance plans have not been fulfilled. Attention should be paid to the implementation progress of production cuts in late July [3]. - In the inland region, coal - based methanol plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, resulting in short - term low operating rates, which will gradually recover by the end of the month. Traditional downstream industries show some resilience, and inland demand remains strong, with inland plant inventories decreasing again. The inland market is stronger than the port market [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures show the basis between methanol spot prices in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [26][31][36] III. Methanol Operation & Inventory - Figures present the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of Chinese methanol plants (including integrated plants) [37][38][40] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [42][48][51] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [52][60][61]