Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. There is insufficient short - term upward drive, and it is necessary to focus on the old device renovation of the chemical industry on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: UR01 urea futures price in Shanxi decreased from 1640.00 yuan/ton on October 27th to 1635.00 yuan/ton on October 28th, a decrease of 0.30%. UR05 decreased from 1713.00 yuan/ton to 1708.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29%. UR09 decreased from 1745.00 yuan/ton to 1736.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei remained unchanged. The price in Northeast China increased from 1600.00 yuan/ton to 1610.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. The price in Jiangsu decreased from 1610.00 yuan/ton to 1600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The prices of compound fertilizer in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu increased from 5100.00 yuan/ton to 5150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased from - 103.00 yuan/ton to - 98.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.00 yuan/ton. The spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged at - 73.00 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Important Information - The opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1636 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1645 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1626 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1635 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1635 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273001 lots [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to continue holding the previously sold out - of - the - money put options (view score: 0) [1].

| | | | | 尿素早评20251028: 情绪好转，反转存疑 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 | 单位 | 10月27日 | 10月24日 | | 変化值 | | | | UR01 | 元/呼 | 1640.00 | 1642.00 | (絶対值) -2.00 | (相对值) -0.12% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1713.00 | 1719.00 | -6.00 | -0.35% | | 尿素期货价格 | | | | | | | | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1745.00 | 1748.00 | -3.00 | -0.17% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1570.00 | 40.00 | 2.55% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1590.00 | 1570.00 | 20.00 | 1 ...