Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the import and export volumes of polyolefins in China continued to increase. The fundamentals of polyolefins were weak, with high upstream supply, rising inventories, and significant inventory pressure. Although the commissioning of some planned production capacity was postponed, the long - term pressure of new capacity was large. The cost support was weak, and the downstream demand was in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with a narrow recovery in terminal operation rates [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7347元/吨（+40），PP主力合约收盘价为7056元/吨（+40），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为 - 167元/吨（-80），LL华东基差为 - 47元/吨（-40），PP华东基差为 - 76元/吨（-60） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率为77.9%（+0.6%）；PE油制生产利润为455.9元/吨（+59.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 84.1元/吨（+59.4），PDH制PP生产利润为178.2元/吨（+6.6） [1] 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - The report does not provide detailed analysis and data for this part. 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL进口利润为 - 115.4元/吨（-4.0），PP进口利润为 - 545.0元/吨（-47.2），PP出口利润为35.1美元/吨（+0.5） [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%（+0.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.1%（-0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率为41.4%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.1%（+0.3%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report indicates that the inventories in the upstream and mid - stream sectors of polyolefins have been rising continuously, with significant inventory pressure, but no specific inventory data is provided [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - delivery: Reverse spread for 09 - 01 contracts [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyolefin industry is neutral for unilateral trading, and there is no rating for inter - period trading [3] Core Viewpoints - Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, causing a significant increase in international oil prices. This has strengthened the cost support for polyolefins. PE's supply remains high as some previously - shut - down plants have resumed operation, while PP's supply pressure is large due to the return of shut - down plants. The upstream inventory reduction is limited. In the seasonal off - season, downstream demand is weak, mainly driven by rigid demand from end - users. Although the agricultural film industry has bottomed out, it is still at a low level, and demand is not sufficient to drive the market. PDH - based PP production is in the red, with new and extended plant shutdowns, providing strong cost support for PP [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7338元/吨（+80），PP主力合约收盘价为7133元/吨（+44），LL华北现货为7300元/吨（+100），LL华东现货为7350元/吨（+100），PP华东现货为7180元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为 - 38元/吨（+20），LL华东基差为12元/吨（+20），PP华东基差为47元/吨（ - 14） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.2%（+1.8%），PP开工率为78.6%（+1.6%）；PE油制生产利润为 - 244.8元/吨（ - 295.9），PP油制生产利润为 - 584.8元/吨（ - 295.9），PDH制PP生产利润为33.4元/吨（+97.2） [1] 3. Non - standard Price Spread of Polyolefins - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL进口利润为 - 205.0元/吨（ - 12.8），PP进口利润为 - 352.7元/吨（+62.1），PP出口利润为6.7美元/吨（ - 7.6） [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（ - 0.5%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（ - 0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.4%（ - 0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - International crude oil prices are rising, strengthening the cost support for polyolefins. The polyolefin futures market opened higher, but downstream buyers' willingness to purchase is weak. Upstream factory inventories and trader inventories are slowly being depleted. It is currently the maintenance season for petrochemical plants, with many planned maintenance units. Recently, several previously shut - down units are expected to resume operation, leading to an upward trend in supply and some supply pressure. The situation of Sino - US tariff negotiations has eased, propane prices have declined, and the cost support for PDH - made PP remains, with a slight increase in PDH - made PP production. It is the traditional off - season for polyolefin downstream demand. The agricultural film production rate continues to decline, and the operation of other end - users is weakly fluctuating, with downstream purchasing based on rigid demand [2]. Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7117元/吨（+15），PP主力合约收盘价为6969元/吨（+9），LL华北现货为7160元/吨（+30），LL华东现货为7180元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7100元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为43元/吨（+15），LL华东基差为63元/吨（-15），PP华东基差为131元/吨（-9） [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.2%（+1.8%），PP开工率为78.6%（+1.6%）；PE油制生产利润为29.4元/吨（-158.0），PP油制生产利润为 - 290.6元/吨（-158.0），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 120.2元/吨（-2.9） [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific content is provided in the given text. IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 192.2元/吨（+110.4），PP进口利润为 - 401.8元/吨（+70.5），PP出口利润为12.7美元/吨（-3.4） [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（-0.5%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.7%（-0.5%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.7%） [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream factory inventories and trader inventories are slowly being depleted [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautiously bearish on plastics. - Inter - period: None [3]