Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefins fluctuated after rising. For linear LL, Sinopec kept prices stable while PetroChina raised some prices by 150. For拉丝PP, Sinopec kept prices stable and PetroChina raised some prices by 150. The increasing tension in the Middle East led to a rise in the international crude oil price, boosting the chemical products. However, it remains to be seen whether the terminal demand can keep up after the continuous rebound. Strategically, it is advisable to moderately reduce long positions at high prices and conduct rolling operations with long positions at low prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7178, 7393, and 7241 respectively, with changes of -58, 38, and -29, and percentage changes of -0.80%, 0.52%, and -0.40%. The trading volumes were 2106, 1319287, and 180096 respectively, and the open interests were 1783, 390543, and 99195 respectively. The open interest changes were -177, 8846, and 1481 respectively [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7054, 7458, and 7181 respectively, with changes of -50, -48, and -45, and percentage changes of -0.70%, -0.64%, and -0.62%. The trading volumes were 4816, 1514753, and 202272 respectively, and the open interests were 6474, 476193, and 137050 respectively. The open interest changes were 2153, 11650, and 296 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -215, 152, and 63 respectively, compared with the previous values of -119, 85, and 34. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -404, 277, and 127 respectively, compared with the previous values of -402, 280, and 122 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP reclaimed materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2491 yuan/ton, 7370 yuan/ton, 870 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 7550 yuan/ton, and 8100 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2556 yuan/ton, 7015 yuan/ton, 867 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 7390 yuan/ton, and 8100 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7350 - 8200 yuan/ton, 7300 - 7800 yuan/ton, and 7700 - 8100 yuan/ton respectively, compared with the previous prices of 7250 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7800 yuan/ton, and 7550 - 7850 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7400 - 7550 yuan/ton, 7400 - 7550 yuan/ton, and 7550 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively, compared with the previous prices of 7150 - 7360 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7350 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7500 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (March 5), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for April 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $81.01 per barrel, the highest since July 18, 2024, up $6.35 or 8.51% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $74.97 - $82.16. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $85.41 per barrel, the highest since July 8, 2024, up $4.01 or 4.93% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $81.5 - $86.28 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests a bullish approach towards polyolefins, as the increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over the weekend led to a rise in international crude oil prices, which in turn boosted the chemical products. The report also mentions that the downstream demand should be monitored for the terminal procurement rhythm after the resumption of work [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7081, 6991, and 7071 respectively, with price increases of 397, 394, and 399, and percentage increases of 5.94%, 5.97%, and 5.98% respectively. The trading volumes were 1244, 963478, and 119036, and the open interests were 1958, 505479, and 90112, with changes of 126, -60599, and -3223 respectively [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6948, 6998, and 7020 respectively, with price increases of 355, 387, and 393, and percentage increases of 5.38%, 5.85%, and 5.93% respectively. The trading volumes were 1431, 888436, and 122800, and the open interests were 3942, 498613, and 133948, with changes of 546, 8140, and 7418 respectively [2]. - **Spread**: For LL, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 90, -80, and -10 respectively. For PP, the spreads were -50, -22, and 72 respectively [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2366 yuan/ton, 6620 yuan/ton, 740 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6680 yuan/ton, and 8100 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6600 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6650 - 6750 yuan/ton, 6650 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - The retaliatory actions of a Middle Eastern country led to the closure of some oil and gas facilities in the Middle East and the shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The international oil prices soared at the beginning of the session but then retreated from the intraday high. On March 2, 2026, the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for April 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $71.23 per barrel, up $4.21 or 6.28% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.2 - $75.33. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $77.74 per barrel, up $4.87 or 6.68% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $75.75 - $82.37 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the Spring Festival, crude oil fluctuated significantly, and polyolefins followed the trend. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the supply side of PE faced new capacity coming online and large import volumes, resulting in a weaker short - term rebound compared to PP. During the Spring Festival, the upstream capacity utilization rate decreased seasonally. The PP2605 contract had no new capacity pressure, and the profit of BOPP on the demand side was better than in previous years, which might become an important marginal variable on the demand side. The alleviation of supply - side pressure might help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound [17][18]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on the PP2605 - PP2609 spread (positive spread strategy) [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information**: During the Spring Festival, crude oil fluctuated significantly, and polyolefins followed the trend. The weekly decline of polyethylene was in the order of spot > futures > cost, and for polypropylene, it was also spot > futures > cost. The cost side rebounded, with WTI crude oil down - 0.78%, Brent crude oil down - 0.09%, coal price up 1.88%, methanol down - 1.00%, ethylene up 1.35%, propylene up 0.23%, and propane up 4.19% [15]. - **Supply Side**: PE capacity utilization was 88.16%, up 0.99% week - on - week, up 1.92% year - on - year, and down - 6.57% compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization was 76.61%, up 2.27% week - on - week, down - 4.55% year - on - year, and down - 17.81% compared to the five - year average [15]. - **Import and Export**: In December, domestic PE imports were 1.3299 million tons, up 25.21% month - on - month and up 4.62% year - on - year. PP imports were 205,800 tons, up 14.81% month - on - month and down - 4.83% year - on - year. Import profits decreased, and the supply of PE from North America decreased, reducing the pressure on the import side. In December, PE exports were 92,100 tons, up 7.27% month - on - month and up 58.30% year - on - year. PP exports were 230,500 tons, up 2.89% month - on - month and up 29.81% year - on - year. The continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate put pressure on the import side [15]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream operating rate of PE was 31.00%, down - 8.09% week - on - week and up 13.39% year - on - year. The downstream operating rate of PP was 38.66%, down - 22.43% week - on - week and down - 11.37% year - on - year. The seasonal off - season arrived, and there were no bright spots in the downstream operation of polyolefins [16]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory was 343,700 tons, with a de - stocking of - 9.48% week - on - week and - 37.57% compared to the same period last year; PE trader inventory was 23,700 tons, with an inventory build - up of 2.11%. PP production enterprise inventory was 391,200 tons, with a de - stocking of - 5.92% week - on - week and - 42.42% compared to the same period last year; PP trader inventory was 176,700 tons, with a de - stocking of - 3.55%; PP port inventory was 72,900 tons, with an inventory build - up of 14.44%. Coal - based enterprises significantly reduced their inventories [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The recommended strategy is to go long on the PP2605 - PP2609 spread (positive spread strategy). The predicted trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is 6,700 - 7,000, and for polypropylene (PP2605) is 6,600 - 6,900 [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Multiple figures are presented, including the term structure, prices, basis, spreads, trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of LLDPE and PP, as well as the spreads between different varieties such as LL - PP, PP - 1.2PG, PP - 3MA, and LL - PVC [30][44][58][62]. 3.3 Cost Side - The oil - based cost stopped falling and rebounded. Multiple figures show the prices of WTI crude oil, thermal coal, naphtha, propane, and other raw materials, as well as related spreads, registered warehouse receipts, and the supply and demand situation of LPG [67][74][76][80][82][84][86][90][95][97][99][105][108][110][112][114][116][120]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - **Raw Material Proportion**: The proportion of raw materials for PE production includes 80.00% oil - based, 12.00% light - hydrocarbon - based, 5.00% coal - based, 2.00% methanol - based, and 1.00% purchased ethylene [126]. - **Capacity and Production**: In 2026, there are multiple domestic polyethylene production projects planned to be put into operation, with a total of 500,000 tons already in production and 5.2 million tons yet to be put into operation. The capacity utilization rate, maintenance loss, and production volume of PE are also presented in figures [130][131][133][135][138]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export - **Inventory**: The coal - based inventory of PE rebounded from a low level. Figures show the inventory of production enterprises, two - oil enterprises, coal - based enterprises, and traders, as well as the inventory - to - sales ratio and total inventory forecast [150][153][154][155]. - **Import - Export**: Figures show the import sources, import volume, and import profit of LLDPE, as well as the import volume and year - to - date import volume of PE [157][159]. 3.6 Polyethylene Demand Side - **Downstream Demand Proportion**: The downstream demand of LLDPE is mainly for packaging film (51.00%), followed by hollow products (12.31%), pipes (11.65%), injection molding (10.00%), agricultural film (7.03%), drawing (4.51%), and wires and cables (3.50%) [164]. - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: Figures show the downstream total operating rate, packaging film available days, agricultural film order days, agricultural film raw material inventory, and downstream raw material and finished product inventories of PE [173][177][179]. 3.7 Polypropylene Supply Side - **Raw Material Proportion**: The proportion of raw materials for PP production includes 53.00% oil - based, 25.00% PDH - based, 18.00% coal - based, 2.00% methanol - based, and 2.00% purchased propylene [185]. - **Capacity and Production**: In 2026, there are multiple domestic polypropylene production projects planned to be put into operation, with a total of 0 tons already in production and 4.37 million tons yet to be put into operation. The capacity utilization rate, maintenance loss, and production volume of PP are also presented in figures [190][192][193][195][198]. 3.8 Polypropylene Inventory and Import - Export - **Inventory**: Figures show the inventory - to - sales ratio, total inventory forecast, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, coal - based enterprise inventory, PDH - based enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory of PP [205][208][212][216]. - **Import - Export**: Figures show the import volume, import profit, export country composition, export volume, and export profit of PP [219][221][222]. 3.9 Polypropylene Demand Side - **Downstream Demand Proportion**: The downstream demand of PP is mainly for drawing (34.00%), followed by high - and low - melt copolymer (24.00%), injection molding (17.00%), BOPP (6.00%), high - melt fiber (6.00%), transparent materials (5.00%), pipes (5.00%), and CPP (3.00%) [227]. - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: Figures show the downstream total operating rate, injection - molding operating rate, pipe operating rate, plastic - weaving operating rate, and the raw material and finished product inventories of plastic - weaving and BOPP of PP [228][236][244][247].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, leading to a rebound in international oil prices. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the supply side of PE has new capacity coming online and a large import volume, so its short - term rebound strength is weaker than that of PP. There is an expectation of production cuts during the spring maintenance period. According to the production plan, the PP2605 contract has no new capacity pressure. The relief of supply - side pressure may help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound [17][18]. - This week's forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is (6900 - 7200); for polypropylene (PP2605), it is (6800 - 7100). The recommended strategy is to go long on PP2605 - PP2609 (a positive spread strategy) [17]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information**: The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and international oil prices rebounded. In terms of valuation, both polyethylene and polypropylene had weekly declines (futures > spot > cost). On the cost side, last week, WTI crude oil rose 4.27%, Brent crude oil rose 4.84%, coal prices rose 0.58%, methanol rose 2.44%, ethylene rose 5.95%, propylene rose 3.64%, and propane rose 0.82%. The cost side rebounded [15]. - **Supply Side**: PE capacity utilization rate was 81.56%, a week - on - week decrease of - 2.19%, a year - on - year decrease of - 4.13%, and a decrease of - 9.64% compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization rate was 76.61%, a week - on - week increase of 3.74%, a year - on - year decrease of - 2.56%, and a decrease of - 10.55% compared to the five - year average. New PE capacity was put into production, and the PP supply side faced greater pressure [15]. - **Imports and Exports**: In December, the domestic PE import volume was 1.0622 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.04% and a year - on - year decrease of - 9.99%. The domestic PP import volume was 179,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.97% and a year - on - year decrease of - 8.74%. Import profits declined, the supply of PE from North America decreased, and the pressure on the import side lessened. In December, the PE export volume was 85,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.07% and a year - on - year increase of 38.74%. The PP export volume was 224,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.54% and a year - on - year increase of 36.59%. The continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate put pressure on the import side [15]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream operating rate of PE was 41.10%, a week - on - week decrease of - 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 104.58%. The downstream operating rate of PP was 52.58%, a week - on - week decrease of - 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 4.12%. The seasonal off - season has arrived, and there are no bright spots in the downstream operating rates of polyolefins [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PE production enterprises was 350,300 tons, a week - on - week destocking of - 11.41% and a year - on - year inventory build - up of 7.72%; the inventory of PE traders was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week destocking of - 0.14%. The inventory of PP production enterprises was 431,000 tons, a week - on - week destocking of - 7.85% and a year - on - year inventory build - up of 8.16%; the inventory of PP traders was 193,900 tons, a week - on - week destocking of - 5.28%; the PP port inventory was 70,600 tons, a week - on - week destocking of - 0.70%. Coal - based enterprises significantly reduced their inventories [16]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Multiple figures are presented, including the term structure, main contract prices, basis, spreads, trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of LLDPE and PP, as well as the spreads between different varieties such as LL - PP, PP - 1.2PG, etc. These figures show the historical price trends and trading volume changes of the above - mentioned indicators from 2022 to 2026 [30][45][62]. 3.3 Cost Side - The oil - based cost stopped falling and rebounded. Multiple figures show the price trends of various raw materials such as WTI crude oil, thermal coal, naphtha, propane, etc., from 2022 to 2026, as well as the production and supply - demand situations of LPG, including its production, import, consumption, and profit margins in different industries [76]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - **Raw Material Proportion**: The proportion of raw materials for PE production is mainly oil - based (80.00%), followed by light hydrocarbon - based (12.00%), coal - based (5.00%), methanol (2.00%), and purchased ethylene (1.00%) [135]. - **Production Plan**: In 2026, there are many domestic PE production projects planned, with a total of 5.2 million tons of un - commissioned capacity, including projects from Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase III, Huajin Aramco Fine Chemicals Project, etc. [140]. - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: Figures show the capacity, capacity utilization, maintenance loss, and output of PE and LLDPE from 2022 to 2026 [139][142][147]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - **Inventory**: The report presents various inventory data of PE, including the inventory - to - sales ratio, total inventory forecast, production enterprise inventory, two - oil enterprise inventory, coal - based enterprise inventory, and trader inventory, and shows their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [159][163][164]. - **Imports/Exports**: It shows the import sources, import volume, and import profit of LLDPE, and the trends of PE import volume from 2021 to 2025 [165][167]. 3.6 Polyethylene Demand Side - **Downstream Demand Proportion**: The downstream demand for LLDPE is mainly for packaging films (51.00%), followed by hollow products (12.31%), pipes (11.65%), injection molding (10.00%), agricultural films (7.03%), drawing (4.51%), and wires and cables (3.50%) [172]. - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: The report shows the downstream operating rate, packaging film available days, agricultural film order days, raw material inventory, and finished - product inventory of PE, and their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [181][185][187]. 3.7 Polypropylene Supply Side - **Raw Material Proportion**: The proportion of raw materials for PP production is mainly oil - based (53.00%), followed by PDH - based (25.00%), coal - based (18.00%), methanol - based (2.00%), and purchased propylene (2.00%) [193]. - **Production Plan**: In 2026, there are many domestic PP production projects planned, with a total of 4.37 million tons of un - commissioned capacity, including projects from Beifang Huajin, PetroChina Tarim, etc. [200]. - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: Figures show the capacity, capacity utilization, maintenance loss, and output of PP from 2022 to 2026 [199][201][203]. 3.8 Polypropylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - **Inventory**: The report presents various inventory data of PP, including the inventory - to - sales ratio, total inventory forecast, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, coal - based enterprise inventory, PDH - based enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory, and shows their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [210][213][217]. - **Imports/Exports**: It shows the import volume, import profit, export country composition, export volume, and export profit of PP, and the trends of import and export volume from 2021 to 2025 [224][227]. 3.9 Polypropylene Demand Side - **Downstream Demand Proportion**: The downstream demand for PP is mainly for drawing (34.00%), followed by high - and low - melt copolymers (24.00%), injection molding (17.00%), BOPP (6.00%), high - melt fibers (6.00%), transparent materials (5.00%), pipes (hot and cold water) (5.00%), and CPP (3.00%) [232]. - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: The report shows the downstream operating rate, raw material inventory, and finished - product inventory of PP, and their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [241][250][253].