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申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250821
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 02:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The polyolefin futures closed positive yesterday. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The market heat has cooled down, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is slowly being digested, but short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate. The domestic macro - level is still driven by domestic demand, and the terminal stocking demand may gradually pick up in mid - to late August. The future market should focus on the autumn stocking rhythm after supply - demand digestion and possible changes on the supply side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For linear LL futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7347, 7340, and 7308 respectively, with increases of 40, 49, and 40 and涨幅 of 0.55%, 0.67%, and 0.55% respectively. For拉丝 PP futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7056, 7062, and 7026 respectively, with increases of 40, 30, and 39 and涨幅 of 0.57%, 0.43%, and 0.56% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of linear LL futures for January, May, and September contracts were 400529, 7534, and 95001 respectively, and the open interests were 381563, 20465, and 90092 respectively. The open interest changes were 21423, 1614, and - 35644 respectively. For拉丝 PP futures, the trading volumes were 341106, 14955, and 58830 respectively, the open interests were 442583, 31841, and 61893 respectively, and the open interest changes were 25989, 2844, and - 19500 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 7, 32, and - 39 respectively, compared with previous values of 16, 23, and - 39. For拉丝 PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 6, 36, and - 30 respectively, compared with previous values of - 16, 45, and - 29 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2427 yuan/ton, 6390 yuan/ton, 570 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to previous values [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the middle - stream market, the current price ranges of linear LL in East China, North China, and South China were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. For拉丝 PP, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China were 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - On Wednesday (August 20), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.21 per barrel, up $0.86 or 1.38% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.39 - $63.55. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.84 per barrel, up $1.05 or 1.60% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.81 - $67.06 [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250801
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 04:00
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. In the spot market, the prices of linear LL and drawn PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventories are being slowly digested. Future focus should be on the autumn restocking market rhythm after supply - demand digestion [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: For LL, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices decreased by 43, 34, and 37 respectively, with declines of - 0.58%, - 0.46%, and - 0.50%. For PP, the corresponding decreases were 23, 11, and 27, with declines of - 0.32%, - 0.15%, and - 0.38% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month were 85106, 897, and 211583 respectively; for PP, they were 72769, 690, and 188972 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month were 170116, 7879, and 326961 respectively; for PP, they were 190211, 10289, and 288497. The changes in open interest were 4000, 231, - 7196 for LL and - 935, 100, - 11205 for PP [2] - **Price Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of 1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, and 9 - month - 1 - month were 9, 40, and - 49 respectively; for PP, they were 4, 22, and - 26. The previous spreads were 18, 37, - 55 for LL and 16, 6, - 22 for PP [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, and South China propane were 2406 yuan/ton, 6245 yuan/ton, and 538 dollars/ton respectively, with previous prices of 2421 yuan/ton, 6250 yuan/ton, and 544 dollars/ton. The prices of PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film remained unchanged at 5600 yuan/ton, 6850 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (July 31), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $69.26 per barrel, down $0.74 or 1.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.56 - $70.41. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $72.53 per barrel, down $0.71 or 0.97% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $72.4 - $73.53 [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250729
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 03:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined and traded sideways overnight. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable for both Sinopec and PetroChina. Fundamentally, due to the clearer macro - situation of anti - involution in China, the market rebounded last week. However, the spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors, with summer maintenance in balance. Attention should be paid to the process of fundamental repair [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7400, 7395, and 7335 respectively, down 104, 98, and 121 from two days ago, with declines of - 1.39%, - 1.31%, and - 1.62%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 7136, 7137, and 7130, down 100, 90, and 91, with declines of - 1.38%, - 1.25%, and - 1.26% [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: LL's trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 114997, 1587, and 388896, with open interests of 157846, 7336, and 346401, and open interest changes of 5906, 528, and - 20147. PP's trading volumes were 120821, 2000, and 344922, with open interests of 165953, 9581, and 325802, and open interest changes of - 3873, - 366, and - 29838 [2] - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 60, and - 65, compared to previous values of 11, 37, and - 48. For PP, the current spreads were - 1, 7, and - 6, compared to previous values of 9, 6, and - 15 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2406 yuan/ton, 6195 yuan/ton, 539 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6930 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2519 yuan/ton, 6240 yuan/ton, 547 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6930 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot**: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7650, 7200 - 7450, and 7400 - 7550. For PP, the ranges were 7050 - 7150, 7000 - 7150, and 7000 - 7200. Most of the previous values were the same, except for the North China LL market which also had a previous range of 8100 - 8250 [2] News - On Monday (July 28), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $66.71 per barrel, up $1.55 or 2.38% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.05 - $67.14. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.04 per barrel, up $1.60 or 2.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.35 - $70.45 [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250630
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 03:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefin consumption entered a relative off - season, and spot prices were generally mediocre. The futures price fluctuated more with costs and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict, international oil prices declined, weakening cost support. Future focus should be on the cooling of cost - end raw materials mainly crude oil and the reality of the seasonal demand off - season [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7245, 7220, and 7302 respectively, with changes of - 4, - 14, and 2 and percentage changes of - 0.06%, - 0.19%, and 0.03%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 7041, 7019, and 7103, with changes of - 12, - 11, and - 5 and percentage changes of - 0.17%, - 0.16%, and - 0.07%. The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 36087, 214, and 297767, and the trading volumes of PP were 34283, 90, and 223643. The open interests of LL were 115196, 1241, and 460583, and those of PP were 100898, 1141, and 425262. The changes in open interests of LL were - 2223, 57, and - 10437, and those of PP were 313, 2, and - 4105 [2] - **Spread Information**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 25, - 82, and 57, compared with previous values of 15, - 66, and 51. For PP, the current spreads were 22, - 84, and 62, compared with previous values of 23, - 78, and 55 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2397 yuan/ton, 6700 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2419 yuan/ton, 6740 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Market**: The current spot price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7800 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7350 - 7800 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7500 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the three markets were 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and the previous price ranges were 7450 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (June 27), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.52 per barrel, up $0.28 or 0.43% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.80 - $66.09. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.77 per barrel, up $0.04 or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.20 - $68.42 [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250612
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 02:58
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are slightly consolidating. The consumption of polyolefins has entered a relative off - season, and the spot prices generally perform averagely. The price fluctuations of the futures market mainly follow the cost and market sentiment. The rebound of international oil prices helps polyolefins stop falling. In the future, the driving force is limited, but the valuation is not high, so polyolefins may gradually stop falling, build a bottom, and attempt a rebound [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7075, 7066, and 7102 respectively. There were declines with changes of - 3, - 1, - 4 and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.04%, - 0.01%, - 0.06%. The trading volumes were 24916, 157, 253230, and the open interests were 111392, 704, 536103 with changes of - 1662, 39, 5141. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, 9 - 1 months were 9, - 36, 27 compared to previous values of 11, - 39, 28 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6908, 6903, and 6960 respectively. There were increases with changes of 12, 14, 19 and corresponding percentage changes of 0.17%, 0.20%, 0.27%. The trading volumes were 16043, 147, 224195, and the open interests were 78596, 709, 501412 with changes of 151, 105, - 10063. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, 9 - 1 months were 5, - 57, 52 compared to previous values of 7, - 52, 45 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2284 yuan/ton, 6360 yuan/ton, 606 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6960 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2278 yuan/ton, 6360 yuan/ton, 608 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Wednesday (June 11), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 68.15 dollars per barrel, up 3.17 dollars or 4.88% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 64.60 - 68.37 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 69.77 dollars per barrel, up 2.90 dollars or 4.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 66.47 - 70.50 dollars [2]