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申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250916
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin market rebounded from the bottom. The spot prices of linear LL remained stable for Sinopec and partially stable for PetroChina, while the spot prices of drawn PP remained stable for Sinopec and some were reduced by 100 by PetroChina. Fundamentally, the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Currently, the PE inventory is being slowly digested, and the PP inventory has also improved. After continuous declines, the short - selling pressure has been released, and the stabilization of crude oil prices provides support for chemical products. The market may rebound after the stop - fall, and attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve meeting this week [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL and PP Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7232, 7252, and 7269 respectively, with increases of 63, 71, and 219 and increases of 0.88%, 0.99%, and 3.11% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6966, 6988, and 6967 respectively, with increases of 53, 52, and 180 and increases of 0.77%, 0.75%, and 2.65% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 264026, 11216, and 49 respectively, and the open interests were 554975, 37371, and 19 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 6135, 1505, and 19 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 297850, 13616, and 288 respectively, and the open interests were 616154, 57544, and 279 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 27201, 2816, and 279 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 20, - 17, and 37 respectively, compared with previous values of - 12, 131, and - 119. For PP, the current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 22, 21, and 1 respectively, compared with previous values of - 23, 149, and - 126 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2398 yuan/ton, 6600 yuan/ton, 595 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. Most of these prices remained unchanged compared with the previous values [2] - **Mid - stream Products**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6700 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Monday (September 15), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.30 per barrel, up $0.61 or 0.97% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.52 - $63.67. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.44 per barrel, up $0.45 or 0.67% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.78 - $67.85 [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250902
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polyolefin futures rebounded from the bottom and closed with a lower shadow yesterday. The spot market for linear LL was stable for Sinopec and partially stable for PetroChina, while the spot market for拉丝PP saw some price cuts of 50 yuan by Sinopec and stability from PetroChina. The market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. The overall spot price of polyolefins is weak at the beginning of the month. Whether the stop - fall of the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling remains to be seen [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7270 yuan, 7276 yuan, and 7204 yuan respectively, with price drops of - 17 yuan, - 23 yuan, and - 26 yuan and declines of - 0.23%, - 0.32%, and - 0.36% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 324382, 11181, and 5021, and the open interests were 468822, 29742, and 9200, with changes of + 28457, + 294, and - 3708 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 6, 72, and - 66, compared to previous values of - 12, 69, and - 57 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6965 yuan, 6982 yuan, and 6871 yuan respectively, with price drops of - 9 yuan, - 13 yuan, and - 11 yuan and declines of - 0.13%, - 0.19%, and - 0.16% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 294958, 8448, and 1912, and the open interests were 558606, 43187, and 6477, with changes of + 30363, + 1920, and - 680 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 17, 111, and - 94, compared to previous values of - 21, 113, and - 92 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2387 yuan/ton, 6605 yuan/ton, 575 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2364 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 574 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot Market**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7200 - 7700 yuan, 7150 - 7450 yuan, and 7400 - 7750 yuan respectively, compared to previous ranges of 7300 - 7700 yuan, 7200 - 7450 yuan, and 7400 - 7750 yuan. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6800 - 7000 yuan, 6800 - 7000 yuan, and 6800 - 7050 yuan respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6850 - 7000 yuan, 6800 - 7000 yuan, and 6800 - 7050 yuan [2]. News - On Monday (September 1st), the trading range of the WTI crude oil futures contract for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.66 - $64.88 per barrel. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.15 per barrel, up $0.67 or 0.99% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.12 - $68.36 [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250821
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The polyolefin futures closed positive yesterday. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The market heat has cooled down, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is slowly being digested, but short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate. The domestic macro - level is still driven by domestic demand, and the terminal stocking demand may gradually pick up in mid - to late August. The future market should focus on the autumn stocking rhythm after supply - demand digestion and possible changes on the supply side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For linear LL futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7347, 7340, and 7308 respectively, with increases of 40, 49, and 40 and涨幅 of 0.55%, 0.67%, and 0.55% respectively. For拉丝 PP futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7056, 7062, and 7026 respectively, with increases of 40, 30, and 39 and涨幅 of 0.57%, 0.43%, and 0.56% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of linear LL futures for January, May, and September contracts were 400529, 7534, and 95001 respectively, and the open interests were 381563, 20465, and 90092 respectively. The open interest changes were 21423, 1614, and - 35644 respectively. For拉丝 PP futures, the trading volumes were 341106, 14955, and 58830 respectively, the open interests were 442583, 31841, and 61893 respectively, and the open interest changes were 25989, 2844, and - 19500 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 7, 32, and - 39 respectively, compared with previous values of 16, 23, and - 39. For拉丝 PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 6, 36, and - 30 respectively, compared with previous values of - 16, 45, and - 29 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2427 yuan/ton, 6390 yuan/ton, 570 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to previous values [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the middle - stream market, the current price ranges of linear LL in East China, North China, and South China were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. For拉丝 PP, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China were 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - On Wednesday (August 20), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.21 per barrel, up $0.86 or 1.38% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.39 - $63.55. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.84 per barrel, up $1.05 or 1.60% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.81 - $67.06 [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250801
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. In the spot market, the prices of linear LL and drawn PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventories are being slowly digested. Future focus should be on the autumn restocking market rhythm after supply - demand digestion [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: For LL, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices decreased by 43, 34, and 37 respectively, with declines of - 0.58%, - 0.46%, and - 0.50%. For PP, the corresponding decreases were 23, 11, and 27, with declines of - 0.32%, - 0.15%, and - 0.38% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month were 85106, 897, and 211583 respectively; for PP, they were 72769, 690, and 188972 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month were 170116, 7879, and 326961 respectively; for PP, they were 190211, 10289, and 288497. The changes in open interest were 4000, 231, - 7196 for LL and - 935, 100, - 11205 for PP [2] - **Price Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of 1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, and 9 - month - 1 - month were 9, 40, and - 49 respectively; for PP, they were 4, 22, and - 26. The previous spreads were 18, 37, - 55 for LL and 16, 6, - 22 for PP [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, and South China propane were 2406 yuan/ton, 6245 yuan/ton, and 538 dollars/ton respectively, with previous prices of 2421 yuan/ton, 6250 yuan/ton, and 544 dollars/ton. The prices of PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film remained unchanged at 5600 yuan/ton, 6850 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (July 31), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $69.26 per barrel, down $0.74 or 1.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.56 - $70.41. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $72.53 per barrel, down $0.71 or 0.97% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $72.4 - $73.53 [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250729
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined and traded sideways overnight. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable for both Sinopec and PetroChina. Fundamentally, due to the clearer macro - situation of anti - involution in China, the market rebounded last week. However, the spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors, with summer maintenance in balance. Attention should be paid to the process of fundamental repair [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7400, 7395, and 7335 respectively, down 104, 98, and 121 from two days ago, with declines of - 1.39%, - 1.31%, and - 1.62%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 7136, 7137, and 7130, down 100, 90, and 91, with declines of - 1.38%, - 1.25%, and - 1.26% [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: LL's trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 114997, 1587, and 388896, with open interests of 157846, 7336, and 346401, and open interest changes of 5906, 528, and - 20147. PP's trading volumes were 120821, 2000, and 344922, with open interests of 165953, 9581, and 325802, and open interest changes of - 3873, - 366, and - 29838 [2] - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 60, and - 65, compared to previous values of 11, 37, and - 48. For PP, the current spreads were - 1, 7, and - 6, compared to previous values of 9, 6, and - 15 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2406 yuan/ton, 6195 yuan/ton, 539 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6930 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2519 yuan/ton, 6240 yuan/ton, 547 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6930 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot**: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7650, 7200 - 7450, and 7400 - 7550. For PP, the ranges were 7050 - 7150, 7000 - 7150, and 7000 - 7200. Most of the previous values were the same, except for the North China LL market which also had a previous range of 8100 - 8250 [2] News - On Monday (July 28), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $66.71 per barrel, up $1.55 or 2.38% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.05 - $67.14. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.04 per barrel, up $1.60 or 2.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.35 - $70.45 [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250630
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefin consumption entered a relative off - season, and spot prices were generally mediocre. The futures price fluctuated more with costs and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict, international oil prices declined, weakening cost support. Future focus should be on the cooling of cost - end raw materials mainly crude oil and the reality of the seasonal demand off - season [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7245, 7220, and 7302 respectively, with changes of - 4, - 14, and 2 and percentage changes of - 0.06%, - 0.19%, and 0.03%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 7041, 7019, and 7103, with changes of - 12, - 11, and - 5 and percentage changes of - 0.17%, - 0.16%, and - 0.07%. The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 36087, 214, and 297767, and the trading volumes of PP were 34283, 90, and 223643. The open interests of LL were 115196, 1241, and 460583, and those of PP were 100898, 1141, and 425262. The changes in open interests of LL were - 2223, 57, and - 10437, and those of PP were 313, 2, and - 4105 [2] - **Spread Information**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 25, - 82, and 57, compared with previous values of 15, - 66, and 51. For PP, the current spreads were 22, - 84, and 62, compared with previous values of 23, - 78, and 55 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2397 yuan/ton, 6700 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2419 yuan/ton, 6740 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Market**: The current spot price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7800 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7350 - 7800 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7500 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the three markets were 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and the previous price ranges were 7450 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (June 27), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.52 per barrel, up $0.28 or 0.43% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.80 - $66.09. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.77 per barrel, up $0.04 or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.20 - $68.42 [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250612
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are slightly consolidating. The consumption of polyolefins has entered a relative off - season, and the spot prices generally perform averagely. The price fluctuations of the futures market mainly follow the cost and market sentiment. The rebound of international oil prices helps polyolefins stop falling. In the future, the driving force is limited, but the valuation is not high, so polyolefins may gradually stop falling, build a bottom, and attempt a rebound [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7075, 7066, and 7102 respectively. There were declines with changes of - 3, - 1, - 4 and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.04%, - 0.01%, - 0.06%. The trading volumes were 24916, 157, 253230, and the open interests were 111392, 704, 536103 with changes of - 1662, 39, 5141. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, 9 - 1 months were 9, - 36, 27 compared to previous values of 11, - 39, 28 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6908, 6903, and 6960 respectively. There were increases with changes of 12, 14, 19 and corresponding percentage changes of 0.17%, 0.20%, 0.27%. The trading volumes were 16043, 147, 224195, and the open interests were 78596, 709, 501412 with changes of 151, 105, - 10063. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, 9 - 1 months were 5, - 57, 52 compared to previous values of 7, - 52, 45 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2284 yuan/ton, 6360 yuan/ton, 606 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6960 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2278 yuan/ton, 6360 yuan/ton, 608 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Wednesday (June 11), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 68.15 dollars per barrel, up 3.17 dollars or 4.88% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 64.60 - 68.37 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 69.77 dollars per barrel, up 2.90 dollars or 4.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 66.47 - 70.50 dollars [2]