Core Viewpoint - The bond market has staged a remarkable comeback alongside the stock market, with significant movements in both markets driven by central bank liquidity measures and differentiated actions by institutional investors [3][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 15, the bond market experienced a strong rally, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping below 1.72% and the 30-year government bond futures rebounding sharply after four consecutive declines [5]. - The credit bond market also showed strength, with bank bonds and industrial bonds leading the way. For instance, the "25中行永续债 01" saw its trading premium rise to 2 basis points [5]. - Institutional investors displayed varied behaviors, with funds and brokerages selling off bonds while banks and insurance companies took the opportunity to buy [6]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - On August 8, the central bank unexpectedly conducted a 700 billion yuan reverse repo operation, injecting 300 billion yuan of liquidity into the market, which significantly benefited the bond market [5][6]. - The ample liquidity changed the previously inverse relationship between the stock and bond markets, allowing both to thrive simultaneously [6]. Group 3: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - A new 6% value-added tax on newly issued government bonds starting August 8 has pressured funds to sell bonds to mitigate losses, while larger institutions capitalized on the opportunity to purchase older bonds that remain tax-exempt [6][7]. - The market showed a preference for older bonds over newly issued ones, as evidenced by the lower subscription rates for new bonds compared to the rising premiums for existing bonds [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Some public funds have been actively positioning themselves in 30-year ultra-long government bonds, ostensibly to raise current bond prices while hedging risks through government bond futures [13]. - For retail investors, mid-to-short-term credit bonds, particularly AA-rated industrial bonds, are viewed as a more stable investment choice due to their historically low credit spreads attracting significant institutional interest [13].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment in China continues to show signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI slightly increasing to 49.7% in June from 49.5% in May, indicating a prolonged contraction phase [2] - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while the producer price index (PPI) saw a larger decline of 3.3% compared to a 2.7% drop in April, reflecting pressures in production material prices [2] - The stock market experienced a broad rally in June, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.90% and 4.23% respectively, driven by positive investor sentiment following U.S.-China trade discussions [3][4] Group 2 - The bond market showed a downward trend in yields, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields decreasing by 12 basis points, 5 basis points, and 2 basis points to 1.34%, 1.51%, and 1.65% respectively [5] - The overall bond market returned a positive performance, with the China Bond Index rising by 0.59% in June, indicating a favorable environment for fixed-income investments [5] Group 3 - The U.S. macroeconomic indicators showed mixed results, with the Markit Composite PMI at 52.9%, while the Eurozone manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 49.5% [6] - Global stock indices exhibited varied performance, with the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 increasing by 4.96% and 6.64% respectively, while European indices like the FTSE 100 and DAX saw slight declines [6] Group 4 - In June, equity funds, particularly small-cap and growth-style funds, outperformed large-cap funds, with the average returns for small-cap mixed funds and mid-cap growth funds at 6.02% and 5.77% respectively [18] - Fixed-income funds also recorded positive returns, with convertible bond funds leading at 3.47%, followed by actively managed bond funds at 1.13% [19] Group 5 - QDII funds showed strong performance, particularly in the global emerging markets mixed funds, which achieved an average return of 12.67% in June, benefiting from favorable conditions in international markets [28]