01 市场洞察 宏观经济企稳修复， 股债表现分化 12月，反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得50.1%，在11月份49.2%的基础上回升了0.9个 百分点。生产指数、新订单指数和原材料库存指数等多个分项环比上升，带动制造业PMI时隔8 个月再次回到扩张区间。11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，PPI同比下降2.2%。相比于10月份CPI和PPI 同比分别上升0.2%和下降2.1%而言，食品价格由降转涨带动CPI涨幅上升，而PPI同比降幅扩 大主要是受到生活资料降幅走阔的影响 。 12月，政治局会议和中央经济工作会议继续延续稳中求进定调，明确稳市场、强创新的核心导 向，内需提振、科技创新和绿色转型等相关领域的红利政策加速释放，有效提振市场风险偏 好，为股市上行注入强劲动力。中下旬，险资在权益投资风险因子下调政策推动下加速通过 ETF基金布局权益投资，银行理财子等机构同步跟进；这类中长期资金的持续净流入，叠加北 向资金加仓、"国家队" 护盘等因素，共同支撑大盘整体韧性。资金面改善叠加产业政策红利释 放，也让AI和商业航天相关板块在政策利好催化业绩预期的带动下表现活跃，年底上证指数以 11天连阳收官。从投资侧来看，主 ...

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[Table_Message]2025-12-07 金融工程周报 大类资产与基金周报（20251201-20251205）—— 贵金属上涨，商品基金涨幅录得 1.03% [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 [Table_Title] [Table_Summary] 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 . 证券分析师：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 内容摘要 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 执业资格证书编码：S1190525080001 金 融 工 程 周 报 ◼ 大类资产市场概况：1）权益：本周 A 股市场中上证指数收盘 3902.81，涨跌幅 0.37%， 深证成指、中小板指数、创业板指、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、 北证 50 涨跌幅分别为 1.26%、0.76%、1.86%、1.09%、1.28%、0.94% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing importance of fixed income funds as a core tool for investors seeking stability and balanced returns in a volatile market environment characterized by inflation, interest rate fluctuations, and credit risks [1]. Summary by Sections What are Fixed Income Funds - Fixed income funds primarily invest in bonds, including government bonds, municipal bonds, policy financial bonds, corporate bonds, and other credit instruments. They are categorized into four main types: pure bond funds, first-level bond funds, second-level bond funds, and mixed bond funds. The core advantage of these products lies in balancing risk and return, aiming to provide stable returns while controlling volatility and ensuring liquidity [3]. Current Market Environment - In the current low interest and low spread environment, traditional fixed income products like money market funds and pure bond funds face downward pressure on expected returns. However, there is still potential for yield exploration within specific bond types. Broader fixed income products offer greater flexibility, allowing fund managers to hedge risks and optimize return-risk ratios through macroeconomic assessments and strategic asset allocation [5]. Importance of a Strong Research Platform - Successful fixed income investment relies on a robust and mature research platform, which requires three core capabilities: a professional and comprehensive research team covering various fields, a collaborative culture for sharing insights, and the ability to quickly adapt and integrate resources in response to market changes [7]. How Investors Can Utilize Fixed Income Tools - Investors should first assess their risk tolerance and select long-term high-performing products within acceptable volatility ranges. For those lacking professional timing abilities, it is advisable to entrust funds to specialized "fixed income+" or multi-asset investment teams. Fixed income products should be viewed as a core asset base for long-term stable growth, with the possibility of complementing them with equity or "fixed income+" products to enhance yield while maintaining stability [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing importance of fixed income funds as a core tool for investors seeking stability and balanced returns in a volatile market environment characterized by inflation, interest rate fluctuations, and credit risks [1]. Summary by Sections What are Fixed Income Funds - Fixed income funds primarily invest in bonds, including government bonds, municipal bonds, policy financial bonds, corporate bonds, and other credit bonds. Some products may also use convertible bonds and interbank certificates to enhance yield [3]. Current Market Environment - In the current low interest rate and low yield environment, traditional fixed income products like money market funds and pure bond funds face declining expected returns. However, there is still potential for yield exploration within specific bond types. Broader fixed income products offer more flexibility, allowing fund managers to hedge risks and optimize return-risk ratios through macroeconomic assessments and asset allocation adjustments [5]. Importance of a Strong Research Platform - A successful fixed income investment strategy relies on a mature research platform with three core capabilities: a professional and comprehensive research team covering various fields, a collaborative culture for sharing insights, and the ability to quickly adapt and integrate resources in response to market changes [7]. How Investors Can Utilize Fixed Income Tools - Investors should first assess their risk tolerance and select long-term high-performing products within acceptable volatility ranges. For those lacking professional timing abilities, it is advisable to entrust funds to specialized "fixed income+" or multi-asset investment teams. Fixed income products should be viewed as a core asset base for stable long-term growth, with the option to flexibly combine them with equity products or "fixed income+" products to enhance yield while maintaining stability [9].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[3][5][7] - The content primarily focuses on market performance, fund statistics, and asset class trends without discussing quantitative models or factors[8][9][46] - No formulas, construction processes, or evaluations of quantitative models or factors are provided in the report[10][55][57]

Group 1: Core Views - The public fund industry in China is entering a new stage of high-quality development, characterized by profound changes in fund products, companies, sales models, and environmental patterns [1][2] - The future opportunities for different types of public fund products vary, with a focus on active equity funds, passive equity funds, fixed income funds, and innovative products like REITs [1] Group 2: Public Fund Development Trends - Active equity funds will see more standardized benchmark indices, shifting the assessment focus from relative rankings to excess returns [1] - Passive equity funds have rapidly developed over the past two years, with index replication funds reducing fees to benefit investors, while enhanced index products, though currently small in scale, show promising future growth [1] - In fixed income funds, active bond funds and fixed income plus products are thriving in a low-interest-rate environment, and bond index funds are also entering a rapid growth phase [1] - Innovative products such as REITs are accelerating issuance, and multi-asset allocation funds of funds (FOFs) remain a blue ocean market [1] Group 3: Fund Company Development Outlook - The public fund company landscape shows a clear "Matthew Effect," where larger companies can maintain their strengths while smaller firms may benefit from specialized development [2] - The trend in investment research systems is moving towards integration, with a shift from creating star fund managers to building company-wide investment research brands [2] - AI is expected to permeate various aspects of fund company management, talent development, and investment research capabilities [2] Group 4: Public Fund Sales Environment Outlook - The sales model is transitioning from a focus on short-term scale to prioritizing long-term client interests and quality service [2] - The fund sales industry is undergoing ecological restructuring centered around advisory services, with a dual focus on buyer advisory transformation and diversified asset allocation [2] - The emergence of institutional direct sales platforms is anticipated, which will test the differentiated research service capabilities of distribution agencies [2] - Potential market dynamics include a strong market concentration, a dual-driven sales environment of direct and indirect sales, a combination of diversification and digitalization, and a new landscape of high-quality development [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The development trend of public funds emphasizes equities, benchmarks, and long - term perspectives. Different types of public funds face different opportunities. For example, active equity funds will standardize benchmark indices and shift from focusing on relative rankings to excess returns; passive equity funds are experiencing the resonance of fee reduction and product innovation; fixed - income funds, especially those with "fixed - income +" products, are booming in the low - interest - rate era; and innovative products such as REITs are accelerating issuance while multi - asset allocation FOFs remain a blue ocean [2]. - The development prospect of fund companies is to return to investment research. Both large and comprehensive fund companies and small and niche ones are worth looking forward to. The industry shows a Matthew effect, and companies should choose different development strategies according to their scale. The investment research system is moving towards integration, and the back - office of fund companies may be empowered by AI [2]. - The sales environment of public funds is shifting from focusing on scale to enhancing investors' sense of gain. The sales model is changing from "emphasizing new issuance and neglecting continuous operation" to "emphasizing continuous operation and optimizing services", and the industry is undergoing ecological reshaping around investment advisory services. The establishment of institutional direct - sales platforms will test the differentiated research and service capabilities of代销 institutions [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Public Fund Development Trends: Emphasizing Equities, Benchmarks, and Long - Term Perspectives 1.1 Active Equity Funds: Standardization of Benchmark Indices and Transition from Relative Ranking to Excess Returns - **Benchmark Index Standardization**: The "Action Plan for Promoting the High - Quality Development of Public Funds" strengthens the binding effect of performance comparison benchmarks. Currently, the benchmark indices of active equity funds are mostly representative broad - based, industry - themed, and style indices. However, most funds do not strictly track the benchmarks, and the industry deviation is in the range of 0.35 - 0.75. This year, 177 funds have changed their performance comparison benchmarks, and the trend is to make them more in line with actual investments. Future benchmark design will be more representative, standardized, and closer to actual investment directions [8][12][21]. - **Serious Assessment**: The assessment should be long - term and focus on excess returns. Long - term assessment helps fund managers adhere to investment concepts, and funds with stable long - term performance have better cumulative returns and risk control. Emphasizing excess returns can tie fund managers' interests with investors and reduce tail risks. Funds that achieve positive excess returns in the long - term have better performance and risk control [24][25][33]. 1.2 Passive Equity Funds: Resonance of Fee Reduction and Product Innovation and Acceleration of the Improvement of the Characteristic Index System - **Replicating Index Funds**: The product spectrum is rich, with a significant leading - company effect. As of September 30, 2025, the total scale of stock ETFs reached 411.7167 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume in 2025 was 1.24 billion yuan. The management fees of ETFs are relatively low, and many large - scale broad - based ETFs have reduced fees. In the future, differentiated indices may become a blue ocean, and fund companies can carry out forward - looking layout and differentiated competition [43][46][54]. - **Index - Enhanced Products**: These products have both discipline and the ability to obtain excess returns. As of June 30, 2025, the total scale of over - the - counter index - enhanced funds was 20.1028 billion yuan. They can achieve differentiated layout by diversifying tracking indices and developing enhanced ETFs, and are expected to become an important link between passive and active investments [56][60][65]. 1.3 Active Fixed - Income Funds: The Booming of "Fixed - Income +" Products in the Low - Interest - Rate Era and the Popularity of Long - Term Investment Products - In the low - interest - rate environment since 2024, the scale of "fixed - income +" funds has increased. In the first half of 2025, the scale of "fixed - income +" funds increased by 232.3 billion yuan, with the scale of stable products surpassing that of balanced products. Stable "fixed - income +" funds have lower returns but better risk control, and the dividend - low - volatility strategy is suitable for them. With regulatory encouragement and the low - interest - rate environment, "fixed - income +" products are expected to continue to grow [66][69][79]. 1.4 Passive Fixed - Income Funds: Accelerated Trend and Continuous Emergence of Innovative Products Supported by Policies - The development of fixed - income index funds has gone through several stages, including the budding, trial, accelerated growth, slow growth, and explosive growth stages. As of Q2 2025, there were 243 bond index funds with a total scale of 1.42 trillion yuan. In the future, the tool - oriented trend of bond funds will be strengthened, ETFs will play a more important role, and innovative products will continue to emerge under policy support [80][84][94]. 1.5 Innovative Products: Accelerated Issuance of REITs and Multi - Asset Allocation FOFs Remain a Blue Ocean - **REITs Products**: With policy support, the issuance of REITs products has accelerated. As of June 30, 2025, there were 75 products with a total scale of 16.4087 billion yuan. REITs have unique asset allocation attributes, such as combining stock, bond, and alternative investment characteristics, having a long - term maturity, and rich underlying asset types. They are important tools for institutional investors' asset allocation and have broad development prospects [98][101][104]. - **FOF**: FOFs are suitable carriers for multi - asset allocation. Multi - asset allocation FOFs and ETF - FOFs are still a blue ocean. Currently, the scale of multi - asset allocation FOFs accounts for a relatively low proportion of all FOFs, but with the growth of asset - allocation demand and policy support, their scale and number are expected to increase significantly [106][109][113]. 2. Fund Company Development Trends: Return to Investment Research, Both Large and Comprehensive and Small and Niche Are Worth Looking Forward To 2.1 Company Strategic Positioning Selection: Comprehensive vs. Characteristic - **Industry Pattern of Public Funds**: The industry pattern of public funds will continue to concentrate on the top. Although the concentration of China's public fund industry has not increased significantly in the past five years, it is expected to rise in the future. The concentration of equity funds is higher than that of fixed - income funds, and the development trends of the two are different [117][118][123]. - **Comprehensive Fund Companies**: Large fund companies should be positioned as comprehensive fund companies. By referring to the development paths of E Fund and China Asset Management, comprehensive fund companies should maintain their advantages in active equity products and strengthen other product lines, such as passive equity, active Hong Kong stocks, passive fixed - income, and FOF products [125][126][127]. - **Characteristic Fund Companies**: Small and medium - sized fund companies should combine their endowments and deeply cultivate their advantages to achieve characteristic development [2]. 2.2 Investment Research System Construction: Platformization and Branding - The investment research system is moving towards integration, and the key is to achieve "harmony with differences". The investment team is shifting from creating star fund managers to building the brand of the company's investment research [25]. 2.3 Back - Office of Fund Companies: AI Empowers to Improve Efficiency - The back - office of fund companies should pay attention to long - term assessment to ensure the construction of talent echelons, actively introduce employee stock ownership to play a long - term incentive mechanism, and use AI to empower the entire business chain system of funds [29]. 3. Outlook on the Sales Environment of Public Funds: From Scale to Sense of Gain 3.1 Shift from Emphasizing New Issuance to Emphasizing Continuous Operation and Improve the Service Ability for Individual Customers - Policy guidance promotes the transformation of public fund sales from "emphasizing new issuance" to "emphasizing continuous operation and service", and strengthens the customer holding experience [31]. 3.2 Investment Advisory Services Change the Sales Industry Ecosystem, and the Rise of Buyer - Side Investment Advisory and Multi - Asset Allocation - The industry is transforming to the buyer - side investment advisory model and promoting multi - asset allocation, which will reshape the sales industry ecosystem [34]. 3.3 The Establishment of Institutional Direct - Sales Platforms Is Expected, Testing the Differentiated Research and Service Capabilities of代销 Institutions - The development of direct - sales platforms will pose challenges to代销 channels.代销 institutions should strengthen their buyer - side capabilities, deepen cooperation with funds, and transform towards multi - asset allocation, long - term value, and personalized services when serving institutional investors [39]. 3.4 Outlook on the Pattern of the Public Fund Sales Environment - The sales environment of public funds may present a pattern of "the strong getting stronger", a dual - drive of "direct sales +代销", a combination of diversification and digitalization, and a new situation of high - quality development [3].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive global economic outlook with rising market risk appetite, but warns of persistent issues such as regionalism, inflation, and structured valuation risks [1][17] - It suggests a cautious yet optimistic approach to asset allocation, focusing on companies' core competencies and balancing risk and return [1][17] Market Overview - Global equity assets showed strong performance in September 2025, with MSCI Global returning 2.31% and emerging markets at 6.78%, outperforming developed markets [8][14] - Domestic markets continued to rise, with the CSI All Share Index yielding 1.87% and active equity funds performing well, particularly the China Equity Index which rose by 6.03% [8][14] International Market Analysis - Manufacturing expansion remains slow overseas, with potential valuation "disproof" risks due to expectation discrepancies [1][18] - The report highlights that while AI innovations are driving growth in the service sector, their impact on traditional manufacturing remains uncertain [20][18] Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic economy shows strong resilience, with industrial value-added growth of 5.2% year-on-year in August, and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.3% [22][24] - Service sector growth is robust, with a production index increase of 5.6% year-on-year, particularly in information technology and financial services [22][24] Asset Allocation Strategy - For equity funds, a core + opportunity "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on companies with high performance certainty and dividend yields [51][52] - Fixed income funds should prioritize medium to short duration products for better value, as long-duration bonds face increasing risks [54][55] Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is highlighted for its high growth potential, particularly in areas like chips, AI, and renewable energy, although volatility risks are noted [52][55] - The report indicates that while gold remains a long-term investment due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, oil prices may face downward pressure due to seasonal demand fluctuations and OPEC+ production increases [38][44][43]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of financial education in safeguarding financial rights and enhancing quality of life, particularly through the actions of the fund industry [1] Fund Performance and Characteristics - Fixed income securities, including government bonds and central bank bills, are the primary investment objects for funds, with a performance of 3.03% and a maximum drawdown of -0.36% for 2024 [5] - Short-term pure bond funds are characterized by low risk, with most funds allocated to short-term bonds with maturities not exceeding 3 years [5] - Long-term pure bond funds have similar investment objects to short-term pure bond funds, with a performance of 4.59% and a maximum drawdown of -0.67% for 2024 [6] Risks Associated with Bond Funds - Credit risk arises when bonds in the fund default, affecting overall returns and potentially leading to losses [8] - Interest rate risk is highlighted as a core concern, where rising market interest rates inversely affect bond prices, potentially leading to losses [7] - Liquidity risk can occur during market tightness, leading to increased short-term bond rates and potential difficulties in buying or selling bonds at favorable prices [8] Investor Considerations - Investors should align their risk tolerance and return objectives with suitable fund types, such as short-term bond funds for lower risk tolerance and longer investment horizons for those with higher risk tolerance [9] - Historical performance metrics, including annualized returns and maximum drawdown, are essential for evaluating fund performance [10] - The Calmar ratio, which measures risk-adjusted returns, is a useful metric for assessing fund performance relative to risk [11] Fund Management and Team - The experience and historical performance of fund managers are critical, with a focus on those with extensive experience and a proven track record [12] - The strength of the research and risk management teams is also important, particularly for large fixed income fund companies with robust systems [12] Fund Holdings and Credit Risk Assessment - Regular reports should be reviewed to assess the top five bond holdings and their credit ratings, prioritizing funds with a high proportion of high-rated bonds to mitigate credit risk [13] Fund Size Considerations - It is advisable to consider funds of moderate size to avoid issues related to small fund sizes, such as the risk of liquidation [14]