Robotaxi究竟如何估值? 每一轮新的科技革命在产业前期或诞生新估值方式，在产业后期会回归常态化PE估值。互联网时代前 期用户数市值法是核心估值方式，前期企业未实现持续盈利核心变量是用户数的增长。AI智能车时代 前期该行认为或可以考虑智能体创收市值法。 估值公式：智能体创收能力=智能体保有量智能体能力等级(参照人类职业差异)，也即影响估值高低该 行认为最大变量是智能体能力等级，这个差异是非线性变化的。而Robotaxi该行认为是AI智能车前期非 常重要率先落地的载体，应当采用这种估值方式。单台Robotaxi创收能力越高(能替代人类的范畴越大) 则对应估值系数越高。 智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，Robotaxi不是简单去"替代司机"，而是真正从底层技术创新 来实现对汽车共享出行的体验变革，从而带来汽车共享出行市场的商业模式-竞争格局-产业链利润分配 的重塑。技术-政策-成本三重驱动Robotaxi商业化加速。该行预计Robotaxi将以"人车价值共创"的产品模 式重塑市场，显著优化成本结构，该行预计2030年中国Robotaxi市场规模达831亿元(对应50万辆 Robotaxi保有量)，20 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-09-24 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20250922：新一轮稳增长政策可能有哪些？ 对政策力度的认识：托底而非强刺激，仍是稳增长兼顾防风险。我们认 为，当前新一轮稳增长政策的思路仍然是托底，而非强刺激，不会用风险 扩散来换取经济增速、不会牺牲质量来换取数量。这也是因为当前经济基 本面没有到需要强刺激的地步，预计三季度经济增速在 4.7%-4.9%，前三 季度累计为 5.1%左右。假设按三季度增长 4.8%算，四季度只要高于 4.5%， 全年就能达到 5.0%左右，实现政府工作报告所确定的目标。去年底，新 华社发文指出"当前的中国经济，更加注重实现质的有效提升和量的合理 增长，而不是简单以 GDP 论英雄"、"经过努力，在 5%的左一点或是右 一点，都可以接受[7]"，也反映出重视高质量发展的态度。 风险提示： 政策落地不及预期；政策调整风险；投资和消费等部分领域经济压力加 大。 宏观深度报告 20250921：如何看待股债收益相关性？——多资产系列报 告（一） 1.据测算，2025年9月至11月股债收益相关系数 ...

Core Insights - The core conclusion of the report indicates that in the second week of September, the compulsory insurance for vehicles reached 450,000 units, representing a week-on-week increase of 24.9% and a month-on-month increase of 4.9% [2][3] - The performance of various automotive sub-sectors showed that SＷ automotive parts increased by 4.3%, followed by SW automotive at 3.0%, SW passenger vehicles at 1.9%, while SW commercial passenger vehicles and SW commercial freight vehicles decreased by 0.5% and 1.2% respectively [2][3] Industry Developments - Key industry changes include the official launch dates for several new models: the Ideal i6 on September 26, the Xiangjie S9T with 10,000 pre-orders in 72 hours, and the Geely Galaxy M9 with over 23,000 pre-orders [3] - Xiaoma Zhixing announced its entry into the Singapore market, partnering with ComfortDelGro Corporation to deploy autonomous vehicles and related services [3] - The company also received Belgium's first federal-level L4 autonomous driving test license for its Robobus [3] Investment Opportunities - The automotive sector is currently witnessing three main lines of investment opportunities, with a focus on the performance of A-H shares in the automotive market, particularly in the parts sector, which has shown the best growth [4] - The report highlights the importance of new vehicle orders and internal demand, with significant pre-order numbers for the new models indicating potential growth drivers [4] Strategic Recommendations - The report outlines key investment targets within the Robotaxi and Robovan supply chains, including integrated models and technology providers [6] - It also identifies core beneficiaries among consumer vehicle manufacturers, emphasizing companies like Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, and NIO as key players in the smart vehicle market [6] - The report suggests a focus on automotive parts suppliers, particularly those involved in AI and robotics, as promising investment opportunities [5][6]

本周行业核心变化： 未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 本周复盘总结：九月第二周交强险45.0万辆，环比上周/上月周度+24.9%/+4.9%。 本周细分板块涨跌幅排序:SＷ汽车零部件(+4.3%) > SW汽车(+3.0%) >SW乘用车(+1.9%) >SW商 用载客车（-0.5%）>SW商用载货车(-1.2%) 。本周已覆盖标的 均胜电子、恒帅股份、蔚来- SW、耐世特、双环传动 涨幅前五。 本周团队研究成果： 外发亚普股份深度报告。 1） 理想i6定档9/26正式上市； 2） 享界S9T正式上市，72小时大定1万辆。 3） 吉利银河M9正 式上市，大定突破2.3万辆； 4） 小马智行宣布正式进入新加坡市场，与新加坡最大交通运营服 务商康福德高（ComfortDelGro Corporation）合作在当地部署自动驾驶车辆和相关服务； 5） 旗下自动驾驶小巴Robobus正式获得比利时首个联邦级别的L4级自动驾驶测试牌照。 三类主线投资机会并存！ 本周市场对汽车核心关注？ 本周汽车A-H股汽车涨幅均属于行业前列，其中子板块零部件尤其是机器人品种涨幅最佳，以 均胜电子+新泉股份为代表。乘用车9月第二周 ...

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 AI时代是【产品为王】不是【流量为王】！ 【流量为王】是PC/移动互联网时代的产物。 PC增强了人类的计算能力，手机增强了人类的连 接能力，移动互联网的本质是连接， 企业的盈利取决于三个层面： 1）用户规模越大则网络效 应越强；2）获客成本越低越好；3）变现渠道越多元越好，距离支付越近越好。因此最终移动 互联网时代的龙头公司都不满足单一产品而是建立生态护城河， 最终目的是让用户留在自己的 生态里面。 【产品为王】或是AI+时代的新产物。 【智能体Agent】是AI时代终端的通用名词，未来在各 个子领域预计会诞生不同类型的智能体，但 具备共同的特征：帮助人类完成单一或多个任务， 而且是语音交互方式不再是移动互联网时代的触控方式。 互联网时代终端的价值与留住用户的 时间成正比，而 AI时代智能体的价值与帮助人类完成任务复杂度成正比 ，因此互联网时代 看"用户数"最重要，AI时代看"单个智能体创收价值"最重要。而AI智能体创收能力差异取决于 【算法能力强弱+调用算力的能量+数据闭环能力】。 智能车是被忽视的AI时代革命性终端！ 智能车为何被忽视？思维方式的错位导致： 1）互联 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, with a focus on the growth potential of passenger vehicles and related components [1]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a notable increase in demand, with passenger car insurance registrations reaching 450,000 units in the second week of September, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 24.9% and a month-on-month increase of 4.9% [2][47]. - Key developments include the successful launches of several new models, such as the Ideal i6, which is set to officially launch on September 26, and the Galaxy M9, which has already received over 23,000 pre-orders [2][3]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: AI smart vehicles, AI robotics, and sectors benefiting from favorable market conditions, such as buses and heavy trucks [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector ranked third in A-shares and second in Hong Kong stocks for the week, indicating strong market performance [7]. - The automotive components sector showed the best performance within the automotive industry, with a notable increase in stocks like Yanfeng Automotive and Xinquan [15][24]. Sales and Demand Forecast - The report forecasts a total retail sales volume of 23.7 million units for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [48]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 56.6% by 2025, with sales projected to be 1.34 million units [49]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights key investment opportunities in the automotive sector, particularly in the AI smart vehicle supply chain, including companies like Tesla, Xiaopeng Motors, and Horizon Robotics [3]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of component suppliers, such as Desay SV and Junsheng Electronics, in the growth of the automotive sector [3]. Policy and Market Trends - The report notes that government policies, such as the expansion of vehicle scrappage subsidies, are expected to support domestic demand in 2025 [48][56]. - The report anticipates a continued recovery in the bus market, with domestic sales expected to grow by 15% in 2025 [56].

团队荣誉 第二十二届新财富最佳分析师汽车和汽车零部件板块第一； 第二十一届新财富最佳分析师汽车和汽车零部件板块第二； 第二十届新财富最佳分析师汽车和汽车零部件板块第二； 第十九届新财富最佳分析师汽车和汽车零部件板块第三； 第十五届卖方分析师水晶球汽车及零部件板块第二； 第四/五届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师汽车行业第二； Wi n d第九届至十二届金牌分析师汽车板块第一 十年初识汽车之貌，见证自主崛起之幸。享受认知的进步是研究汽车最大乐趣。 ——摘自2024年《汽车研究十年得与失》 "见证汽车全球崛起"是新十年的奋斗目标；"求同存异，百花齐放"是新十年的行动纲领；"独立思考、 客观、前瞻"是矢志不渝的团队理念。 周期轮回是事物发展的必然规律。【破旧立新】是2025年汽车关键词。新逻辑和旧逻辑的切换期充满着 各种类型的投资机会，2025年东吴汽车团队坚持5条投资主线并行。 AI智能车及产业链投资主线 团队寄语： 提及智能化，三个触及灵魂的提问：1）消费者买单吗？2）拐点到了吗？3）先发VS后发 优势？已经坚持了十年又如何？黎明前的黑暗才是真正的考验。我们坚信：智能车是被忽视的AI时代 物理世界革命性终端应用。B端（ ...