Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut is likened to "adding fuel to the fire" according to market observer Ed Yardeni, suggesting that it may not be necessary given the current economic conditions [1] Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high on Tuesday, indicating strong market performance [1] - Despite signs of a slowdown in the labor market, the overall economic growth in the United States remains robust [1] Implications of Rate Cut - A rate cut on Wednesday is viewed as potentially unnecessary and could lead to inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's target [1] - The anticipated rate cut may further fuel speculative behavior in the stock market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a band - trading approach for treasury bond futures. It indicates that the bond market may enter a period of oscillation as the 10 - year treasury bond yield faces significant resistance around 1.75%. It advises against chasing high prices and recommends taking profit on previous long positions [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Conditions - On Thursday, treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, with narrow intraday fluctuations. Medium - and long - term bonds closed higher, while short - term bonds weakened at the end of the session. Spot bond yields first declined and then rose, with most turning upward by the end of the day. The open market had a net withdrawal of 20.35 billion yuan, and the funds were loose, with DR001 remaining at 1.31% [1] 3.2. Intraday News - The second group leader meeting of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank aims to jointly ensure the better implementation of fiscal and monetary policies - Bloomberg reported that China is considering measures to curb stock market speculation and seek stable development of the A - share market - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested starting interest rate cuts this month and multiple cuts in the next 3 - 6 months, with the pace depending on data [2] 3.3. Market Judgment - The opening of spot bonds continued the upward trend from the previous day's close, driving treasury bond futures to open higher. Then, each variety basically maintained a narrow - range shock. The A - share market fell for the third consecutive day, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by up to 2% during the session, and the previous hot sectors experiencing greater declines. However, the bond market did not gain more upward momentum. After the futures market closed, spot bonds weakened, indicating a lack of further upward drivers in the bond market [3] 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: TS2512 was at 102.44 (unchanged), TF2512 at 105.745 (up 0.055), T2512 at 108.27 (up 0.15), and TL2512 at 117.4 (up 0.37) - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions increased by 429 to 76,004 hands, TF by 3,428 to 142,981 hands, T by 4,090 to 217,136 hands, and TL decreased by 2,021 to 140,684 hands - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) was - 0.0299 (down 0.0074), TF basis (CTD) was 0.0269 (down 0.0577), T basis (CTD) was 0.3866 (down 0.0537), and TL basis (CTD) was 0.8792 (up 0.1384) - **Trading Volume and Changes**: TS main contract trading volume increased by 5,941 to 31,545 hands, TF by 501 to 62,934 hands, T decreased by 2,944 to 83,913 hands, and TL decreased by 21,692 to 135,244 hands [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market has recently surged, breaking through the 3800-point mark, reaching a ten-year high, which has generated significant public interest and discussion [2][5]. Market Analysis - The technical breakout from a ten-year platform suggests that the previous resistance level may now serve as support, indicating a potentially substantial market rally ahead [5]. - Despite the bullish market signals, there are concerns that the current rally may be a liquidity-driven rebound, with many companies still not showing clear operational improvements as indicated by their mid-year reports [8][9]. Investor Sentiment - Many investors are experiencing anxiety and uncertainty despite the rising index, questioning their investment strategies and whether to adjust their portfolios towards more technology-focused or high-volatility stocks [12][14]. - The emotional state of investors is fluctuating, with many feeling torn between different market perspectives, leading to indecision and stress [14][15]. Investment Philosophy - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding one's approach to the market—whether it is trading, investing, or speculating—as this fundamentally alters the perception of market conditions and decision-making processes [15][21]. - For true investors, the focus should remain on the intrinsic value of assets and long-term cash flow generation, rather than being swayed by short-term market fluctuations [18][21]. Conclusion - The article suggests that investors should cultivate a calm and patient mindset, avoiding the noise of the market and maintaining a focus on long-term value creation [18][22].