文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 最近市场整体上涨，时隔多年，重新回到3.9星。进入1月份，按照惯例，也更新下，2026年1 月初的螺丝钉股市牛熊信号板。 这个信号板有定量和定性两部分。 长图片后面，有详细的牛熊信号板相关数据意义的介绍。 2018.10 2012.12 2000 2012.1.6 2026.1.6 巴菲特指标 100% 84.60% 80% 50% 2026.1.6 2022.1.4 注：80%以下通常代表偏低，市场比较便宜；80%-100%代表正常水平，100%以上代 表偏高，市场比较贵了。 市净率百分位 一 大盘价值 大盘成长 100% 50% 53.71% 41.56% 0% 2015.12 2018.1 2020.1 2022.1 2026.1.6 － 小盘价值 一 小盘成长 100% M78.71% √61.78% 50% NEW YOU WANT AND THE WATER AND AND A 0% 2015.12 2018.1 2020.1 2022.1 2026.1.6 市净率百分位：指当前的市净率数据,处于它历史数据里百分之多少的位置。通常 所处的历史位置越低，估值越 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, focusing on the bull and bear signals as of December 2025, and provides both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions [1][8]. Quantitative Indicators - The Buffett Indicator shows that the market is moving from undervaluation to a reasonable valuation, with a current level of 80% indicating a normal market [16]. - The Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio percentiles for various market styles indicate that small-cap growth stocks have rebounded significantly, while large-cap value stocks remain relatively undervalued [18]. - The stock-bond yield ratio is currently at 2.57, suggesting that stocks are undervalued compared to bonds, with this ratio being above historical averages [20]. - The financing balance in the A-share market is at 24,667 billion, indicating a relatively cold market environment [23]. - The current trading volume percentile is at 79.10%, reflecting a higher level of market activity compared to historical data [5]. Qualitative Indicators - The number of new stock issuances has decreased significantly, which is typical during bear markets, and the high rate of new stock failures indicates a bearish sentiment [28]. - The M2 money supply is used to gauge market liquidity, with the current index indicating a low market sentiment when close to the M2 calculated bottom [30]. - The scale of old funds has decreased by 50-60% compared to 2021, indicating a lack of investor confidence in the current market [33]. - The issuance of new funds remains low, with recent peaks not reaching the levels seen in 2021, suggesting a cautious market outlook [38]. - The proportion of funds under purchase restrictions is currently at 17.78%, indicating that fund managers are cautious about market valuations [40].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, focusing on the bull-bear signal board for September 2025, which includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions and potential investment opportunities [1]. Quantitative Signals - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization of listed companies against GDP, indicates that a value below 80% suggests the market is undervalued, while values above 100% indicate overvaluation. As of September 2025, the indicator is at 80.89% [3][23]. - The Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio percentile shows the current P/B ratio's position relative to historical data. A lower percentile indicates cheaper valuations. As of September 2025, the large-cap value and growth styles are at 67.71% and 50% respectively, while small-cap styles are at 74.55% and 50.74% [4][25]. - The stock-bond yield ratio, which compares the earnings yield of the CSI All Share Index to the yield of 10-year government bonds, is currently at 2.56. A ratio above 2 typically indicates a favorable investment opportunity in stocks [4][27]. - The current financing balance in the A-share market is 22,808 billion yuan, indicating a relatively low market activity level, which can suggest a bearish sentiment [4][32]. Qualitative Signals - The trading volume percentile is at 99.80%, indicating that current trading activity is significantly higher than historical averages, suggesting a more active market [5]. - The number of new stock issuances and the rate of initial public offering (IPO) failures are also monitored. A high failure rate typically indicates a bearish market. Recent trends show a decrease in new stock issuances, which is common during bear markets [5][38]. - The relationship between the CSI All Share Index total return and M2 money supply indicates market liquidity. A closer alignment to the M2 bottom suggests a bearish market condition [5][40]. - The scale of existing funds has decreased significantly, with many funds down by 50-60% compared to their peak in 2021, indicating a lack of investor confidence [5][43]. - The issuance of new funds has been at historical lows, with a notable increase in the issuance of A500 index funds recently, but still far from the peak levels seen in 2021 [5][48]. Summary - The article provides a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions through various quantitative and qualitative signals, indicating a mixed sentiment with some signs of undervaluation and low market activity, while also highlighting recent increases in trading volume and specific fund issuances [58][59].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market as of July 2025, focusing on the bull-bear signal board which includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions and potential investment opportunities [1][11]. Quantitative Signals - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization of listed companies against GDP, indicates that a value below 80% suggests the market is undervalued [21]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile shows that various market styles (large-cap value, large-cap growth, small-cap value, small-cap growth) are currently at low valuation levels, with small-cap growth rebounding significantly from historical lows [23]. - The stock-bond yield ratio is currently at 3.17, indicating that stocks are undervalued compared to bonds, as this value exceeds 2, which typically signals a good investment opportunity [25][26]. - The financing balance in the A-share market reflects investor borrowing to buy stocks, with lower balances indicating a cooler market [29]. - The trading volume percentile is at 85.90%, suggesting that current trading activity is relatively low compared to historical data, indicating a subdued market [30]. Qualitative Signals - The number of new stock issuances and the rate of initial public offering (IPO) failures are both indicators of market sentiment; a high failure rate typically correlates with a bearish market [34]. - The relationship between the total return of the CSI All Share Index and M2 money supply indicates market liquidity; when the index approaches the M2 liquidity bottom, it suggests a low market condition [36]. - The scale of established funds has decreased significantly, with many funds down by 50-60% from their peak levels in 2021, reflecting a bearish market sentiment [38]. - The issuance of new funds has reached historical lows, indicating a lack of investor confidence in the current market environment [44]. - Recent market news has been predominantly positive, with several monetary policy adjustments aimed at stimulating the market, such as lowering reserve requirements and interest rates [51][58]. Summary - The analysis of both quantitative and qualitative signals indicates that the market is currently in a relatively undervalued state, with various indicators suggesting potential investment opportunities despite prevailing bearish sentiments [56][57].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market as of May 2025, focusing on the bull-bear signal board, which includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions and potential investment opportunities [1][46]. Quantitative Indicators - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization of listed companies against GDP, indicates that a value below 80% suggests a relatively low market valuation [19]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile shows that the current market valuation is at 45.76% for large-cap growth stocks and 30.97% for large-cap value stocks, indicating that the market is relatively cheap compared to historical levels [3][4]. - The stock-bond yield ratio is currently at 3.34, which is above the historical average, suggesting that the stock market is undervalued [23]. - The financing balance in the A-share market is a critical indicator, with lower balances indicating a cooler market, while higher balances suggest a more active market [5][26]. - The trading volume percentile is at 88.30%, indicating that current trading activity is relatively high compared to historical data [5]. Qualitative Indicators - The number of new stock issuances and the rate of initial public offering (IPO) failures are important indicators; a high failure rate typically signifies a bearish market [28]. - The relationship between the total return of the CSI All Share Index and M2 money supply indicates market liquidity; when the index approaches the M2 bottom curve, it suggests a low market condition [30]. - The scale of existing funds has decreased significantly, with many funds experiencing a 50%-60% drop compared to their peak sizes in 2021, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [32]. - The proportion of funds under purchase restrictions is currently at 22.73%, indicating that fund managers are cautious about market valuations [11][38]. - Recent market news has been predominantly positive, which may influence market sentiment and investor behavior [41].