证券之星消息，8月8日A股收盘，上证综指指跌0.12%，报收3635.13点；深圳成指跌0.26%，报收 11128.67点；创业板指跌0.38%，报收2333.96点。 风格策略指数方面，国信价值的市盈率百分位较高，为98.76%。而大盘成长的市盈率百分位较低，为 47.11%。 | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 市盈率 | 市盈率 | 南澳巡 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 自分位 | | 自分位 | | 国信价值 | 3119.39 | 0.32% | 9.68 | 98.76% | 1.26 | 95.86% | | 港股通高股息港元 | 5082.09 | -0.03% | 7.19 | 77.48% | 0.73 | 67.66% | | 红利低波 | 11675.80 | 0.17% | 8.40 | 77.18% | 0.87 | 47.09% | | 价值100 | 4167.13 | 0.32% | 8.50 | 71.05% | 0.90 | 52.11% | | 科技龙头 | 3938. ...

Market Overview - The market experienced slight fluctuations with a minor decline, maintaining a rating of 4.9 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks like the CSI 300 saw minor declines, while small-cap stocks experienced slight gains [1] - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower but reduced its losses by the close, with the Hang Seng Tech index showing slight gains [1] Monthly Investment Strategy - The "Yuexinbao" investment product has risen for six consecutive trading days, reaching a historical high [2] - A rebalancing of the Yuexinbao portfolio was conducted, reducing the stock allocation from around 40% to below 40% and increasing bond holdings [2][3] - From February last year to June this year, Yuexinbao saw an approximate increase of 15%, with the stock portion rising over 30% during the same period [2] Rebalancing Strategy - The stock allocation in Yuexinbao exceeded 45% after the previous increase, prompting a rebalancing on July 7 to restore the stock ratio to around 40% and bonds to 60% [3] - This rebalancing strategy is automated, allowing for a "buy low, sell high" approach without manual intervention [3][4] Economic Indicators and Valuation Metrics - Current market conditions show high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and low price-to-book (P/B) ratios across various indices, indicating a potential misalignment in valuation metrics [9][10] - For instance, the CSI 300 value index has a P/E ratio at the 69th percentile and a P/B ratio at the 31st percentile over the past decade [14] - The economic cycle has influenced these valuation metrics, with recent years experiencing a downturn in earnings growth, particularly in small-cap stocks [18][19] Investment Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding different valuation metrics during various economic cycles, suggesting that P/E ratios may not be reliable indicators in periods of earnings decline [27][28] - The article also highlights the potential for significant gains in sectors entering a recovery phase, as seen in the Hong Kong tech sector, which has recently experienced substantial earnings growth [25][26] Investment Products and Promotions - The company is offering a limited-time 50% discount on advisory fees for its investment products, aimed at reducing costs for investors [29][32] - The Yuexinbao investment product has adjusted its minimum investment threshold to 200 yuan, making it more accessible for investors [40] - A regular cash flow feature is available for the Yuexinbao product, catering to investors with ongoing cash flow needs [38][41]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, focusing on the bull-bear signal board for June 2025, which includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions [1]. Quantitative Indicators - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization of listed companies against GDP, indicates that the market is in a relatively low valuation zone when below 80% [27]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile shows that various market styles, including small-cap growth, are experiencing low valuations, with the growth style rebounding faster than value style [29][30]. - The stock-bond valuation ratio is currently at 3.24, suggesting that stocks are undervalued compared to bonds, as this figure exceeds 94% of historical data [33]. - Financing balance in the A-share market reflects investor sentiment, with lower balances indicating a cooler market [8][36]. - The trading volume percentile is at 81.20%, suggesting that current trading activity is relatively high compared to historical levels [9]. Qualitative Indicators - The number of new stock issuances and their initial failure rates are used to gauge market sentiment, with higher failure rates typically indicating a bearish market [41]. - The relationship between the total return of the CSI All Share Index and M2 money supply can help identify market liquidity and potential bottoming out [43]. - The scale of established funds has been declining significantly, with many funds down by 50%-60% from their peaks in 2021, indicating a low market sentiment [46]. - The proportion of funds under purchase restrictions is currently at 20.93%, which may suggest that fund managers perceive the market as expensive [17][54]. - Recent market news has been predominantly positive, with several monetary policy adjustments aimed at stimulating the market, such as lowering reserve requirements and interest rates [58]. Summary - The current market is characterized by low valuations and mixed investor sentiment, with indicators suggesting potential investment opportunities despite a generally bearish outlook [61][62].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market as of May 2025, focusing on the bull-bear signal board, which includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions and potential investment opportunities [1][46]. Quantitative Indicators - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization of listed companies against GDP, indicates that a value below 80% suggests a relatively low market valuation [19]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile shows that the current market valuation is at 45.76% for large-cap growth stocks and 30.97% for large-cap value stocks, indicating that the market is relatively cheap compared to historical levels [3][4]. - The stock-bond yield ratio is currently at 3.34, which is above the historical average, suggesting that the stock market is undervalued [23]. - The financing balance in the A-share market is a critical indicator, with lower balances indicating a cooler market, while higher balances suggest a more active market [5][26]. - The trading volume percentile is at 88.30%, indicating that current trading activity is relatively high compared to historical data [5]. Qualitative Indicators - The number of new stock issuances and the rate of initial public offering (IPO) failures are important indicators; a high failure rate typically signifies a bearish market [28]. - The relationship between the total return of the CSI All Share Index and M2 money supply indicates market liquidity; when the index approaches the M2 bottom curve, it suggests a low market condition [30]. - The scale of existing funds has decreased significantly, with many funds experiencing a 50%-60% drop compared to their peak sizes in 2021, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [32]. - The proportion of funds under purchase restrictions is currently at 22.73%, indicating that fund managers are cautious about market valuations [11][38]. - Recent market news has been predominantly positive, which may influence market sentiment and investor behavior [41].

不过，公司还在盈利，净资产没有减少。 此时市净率并不会被动提高，反而会因为 净资产增加,市净率降低,市净率的百分 位还是比较低。 市净率=股价/净资产。 大多数时候，指数的净资产还是稳定的。 所以，在盈利大幅波动的时候，我们一般 可以参考市净率指标，作为过渡。 经济周期底部，容易遇到市盈率比市净率 的位置言。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 市盈率分母盈利下降，会带动市盈率数值 提高，也会让市盈率所处的百分位提高。 换句话说，过去两年，有的股票股价下跌 了，但是公司的盈利下降更多，导致市盈 率反而被动提高，市盈率所处的位置也提 高了。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...