文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 最近市场整体上涨，时隔多年，重新回到3.9星。进入1月份，按照惯例，也更新下，2026年1 月初的螺丝钉股市牛熊信号板。 这个信号板有定量和定性两部分。 长图片后面，有详细的牛熊信号板相关数据意义的介绍。 2018.10 2012.12 2000 2012.1.6 2026.1.6 巴菲特指标 100% 84.60% 80% 50% 2026.1.6 2022.1.4 注：80%以下通常代表偏低，市场比较便宜；80%-100%代表正常水平，100%以上代 表偏高，市场比较贵了。 市净率百分位 一 大盘价值 大盘成长 100% 50% 53.71% 41.56% 0% 2015.12 2018.1 2020.1 2022.1 2026.1.6 － 小盘价值 一 小盘成长 100% M78.71% √61.78% 50% NEW YOU WANT AND THE WATER AND AND A 0% 2015.12 2018.1 2020.1 2022.1 2026.1.6 市净率百分位：指当前的市净率数据,处于它历史数据里百分之多少的位置。通常 所处的历史位置越低，估值越 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, focusing on the bull and bear signals as of December 2025, and provides both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions [1][8]. Quantitative Indicators - The Buffett Indicator shows that the market is moving from undervaluation to a reasonable valuation, with a current level of 80% indicating a normal market [16]. - The Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio percentiles for various market styles indicate that small-cap growth stocks have rebounded significantly, while large-cap value stocks remain relatively undervalued [18]. - The stock-bond yield ratio is currently at 2.57, suggesting that stocks are undervalued compared to bonds, with this ratio being above historical averages [20]. - The financing balance in the A-share market is at 24,667 billion, indicating a relatively cold market environment [23]. - The current trading volume percentile is at 79.10%, reflecting a higher level of market activity compared to historical data [5]. Qualitative Indicators - The number of new stock issuances has decreased significantly, which is typical during bear markets, and the high rate of new stock failures indicates a bearish sentiment [28]. - The M2 money supply is used to gauge market liquidity, with the current index indicating a low market sentiment when close to the M2 calculated bottom [30]. - The scale of old funds has decreased by 50-60% compared to 2021, indicating a lack of investor confidence in the current market [33]. - The issuance of new funds remains low, with recent peaks not reaching the levels seen in 2021, suggesting a cautious market outlook [38]. - The proportion of funds under purchase restrictions is currently at 17.78%, indicating that fund managers are cautious about market valuations [40].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market as of October 2025, highlighting various quantitative and qualitative signals that indicate market conditions, including valuation metrics and investor sentiment [1][55]. Quantitative Signals - The Buffett Indicator shows a market valuation of 80% below GDP, indicating a relatively low market valuation [25]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile indicates that the market is at 71.51% for large-cap value stocks and 83.49% for small-cap value stocks, suggesting that large-cap stocks are relatively undervalued [3][5]. - The stock-bond yield ratio is at 2.46, which is above the threshold of 2, indicating that stocks are undervalued compared to bonds [29]. - The financing balance in the A-share market is at 23,784 billion, reflecting a cooling market sentiment [9][10]. - The current trading volume percentile is at 99.60%, indicating a high level of trading activity compared to historical data [11]. Qualitative Signals - The number of new stock issuances has decreased significantly, and the high rate of new stock failures suggests a bearish market sentiment [36]. - The M2 money supply is used as a liquidity indicator, with the market's performance closely tracking its movements [38]. - The scale of old funds has decreased significantly, with many funds down by 50%-60% compared to their peak in 2021, indicating a lack of investor confidence [41]. - The issuance of new funds remains low, with recent data showing a historical low in new fund sizes, reflecting a bearish market environment [45]. - The proportion of limited purchase funds is at 17.39%, indicating a cautious approach from fund managers in a potentially overvalued market [50]. Market Trends - The article notes two significant market lows in early 2024, both at a star rating of 5.9, indicating extreme undervaluation [56]. - Following these lows, the market has shown signs of recovery, with the star rating improving to around 4.1 by October 2025, suggesting a gradual return to normal valuation levels [57]. - The small-cap growth style has seen significant gains, reaching overvalued levels, while other styles remain closer to normal or undervalued [57].

Market Overview - A-shares closed lower on August 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.12% at 3635.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.26% at 11128.67 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.38% at 2333.96 points [1][2] Index Performance - The ChiNext Index has a relatively low price-to-earnings (P/E) percentile of 18.08%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index has a high P/E percentile of 97.06% [1][2] - The software index shows a high P/E percentile of 99.42%, while the 800 Consumer Index has a low P/E percentile of 7.21% [4][5] Sector Analysis - The software index closed at 14757.33 with a P/E of 301.40 and a decline of 2.80% [5] - The banking sector, represented by the China Securities Banking Index, has a P/E of 7.42 and a high P/E percentile of 95.44% [5] - The semiconductor materials and equipment sector has a P/E of 65.42 with a P/E percentile of 49.10% [5] Style Strategy - The Guosen Value Index has a high P/E percentile of 98.76%, indicating a potential overvaluation [7][8] - The Large Cap Growth Index has a lower P/E percentile of 47.11%, suggesting a more moderate valuation [7][8]

Market Overview - The market experienced slight fluctuations with a minor decline, maintaining a rating of 4.9 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks like the CSI 300 saw minor declines, while small-cap stocks experienced slight gains [1] - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower but reduced its losses by the close, with the Hang Seng Tech index showing slight gains [1] Monthly Investment Strategy - The "Yuexinbao" investment product has risen for six consecutive trading days, reaching a historical high [2] - A rebalancing of the Yuexinbao portfolio was conducted, reducing the stock allocation from around 40% to below 40% and increasing bond holdings [2][3] - From February last year to June this year, Yuexinbao saw an approximate increase of 15%, with the stock portion rising over 30% during the same period [2] Rebalancing Strategy - The stock allocation in Yuexinbao exceeded 45% after the previous increase, prompting a rebalancing on July 7 to restore the stock ratio to around 40% and bonds to 60% [3] - This rebalancing strategy is automated, allowing for a "buy low, sell high" approach without manual intervention [3][4] Economic Indicators and Valuation Metrics - Current market conditions show high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and low price-to-book (P/B) ratios across various indices, indicating a potential misalignment in valuation metrics [9][10] - For instance, the CSI 300 value index has a P/E ratio at the 69th percentile and a P/B ratio at the 31st percentile over the past decade [14] - The economic cycle has influenced these valuation metrics, with recent years experiencing a downturn in earnings growth, particularly in small-cap stocks [18][19] Investment Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding different valuation metrics during various economic cycles, suggesting that P/E ratios may not be reliable indicators in periods of earnings decline [27][28] - The article also highlights the potential for significant gains in sectors entering a recovery phase, as seen in the Hong Kong tech sector, which has recently experienced substantial earnings growth [25][26] Investment Products and Promotions - The company is offering a limited-time 50% discount on advisory fees for its investment products, aimed at reducing costs for investors [29][32] - The Yuexinbao investment product has adjusted its minimum investment threshold to 200 yuan, making it more accessible for investors [40] - A regular cash flow feature is available for the Yuexinbao product, catering to investors with ongoing cash flow needs [38][41]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, focusing on the bull-bear signal board for June 2025, which includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions [1]. Quantitative Indicators - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization of listed companies against GDP, indicates that the market is in a relatively low valuation zone when below 80% [27]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile shows that various market styles, including small-cap growth, are experiencing low valuations, with the growth style rebounding faster than value style [29][30]. - The stock-bond valuation ratio is currently at 3.24, suggesting that stocks are undervalued compared to bonds, as this figure exceeds 94% of historical data [33]. - Financing balance in the A-share market reflects investor sentiment, with lower balances indicating a cooler market [8][36]. - The trading volume percentile is at 81.20%, suggesting that current trading activity is relatively high compared to historical levels [9]. Qualitative Indicators - The number of new stock issuances and their initial failure rates are used to gauge market sentiment, with higher failure rates typically indicating a bearish market [41]. - The relationship between the total return of the CSI All Share Index and M2 money supply can help identify market liquidity and potential bottoming out [43]. - The scale of established funds has been declining significantly, with many funds down by 50%-60% from their peaks in 2021, indicating a low market sentiment [46]. - The proportion of funds under purchase restrictions is currently at 20.93%, which may suggest that fund managers perceive the market as expensive [17][54]. - Recent market news has been predominantly positive, with several monetary policy adjustments aimed at stimulating the market, such as lowering reserve requirements and interest rates [58]. Summary - The current market is characterized by low valuations and mixed investor sentiment, with indicators suggesting potential investment opportunities despite a generally bearish outlook [61][62].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market as of May 2025, focusing on the bull-bear signal board, which includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions and potential investment opportunities [1][46]. Quantitative Indicators - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization of listed companies against GDP, indicates that a value below 80% suggests a relatively low market valuation [19]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile shows that the current market valuation is at 45.76% for large-cap growth stocks and 30.97% for large-cap value stocks, indicating that the market is relatively cheap compared to historical levels [3][4]. - The stock-bond yield ratio is currently at 3.34, which is above the historical average, suggesting that the stock market is undervalued [23]. - The financing balance in the A-share market is a critical indicator, with lower balances indicating a cooler market, while higher balances suggest a more active market [5][26]. - The trading volume percentile is at 88.30%, indicating that current trading activity is relatively high compared to historical data [5]. Qualitative Indicators - The number of new stock issuances and the rate of initial public offering (IPO) failures are important indicators; a high failure rate typically signifies a bearish market [28]. - The relationship between the total return of the CSI All Share Index and M2 money supply indicates market liquidity; when the index approaches the M2 bottom curve, it suggests a low market condition [30]. - The scale of existing funds has decreased significantly, with many funds experiencing a 50%-60% drop compared to their peak sizes in 2021, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [32]. - The proportion of funds under purchase restrictions is currently at 22.73%, indicating that fund managers are cautious about market valuations [11][38]. - Recent market news has been predominantly positive, which may influence market sentiment and investor behavior [41].

不过，公司还在盈利，净资产没有减少。 此时市净率并不会被动提高，反而会因为 净资产增加,市净率降低,市净率的百分 位还是比较低。 市净率=股价/净资产。 大多数时候，指数的净资产还是稳定的。 所以，在盈利大幅波动的时候，我们一般 可以参考市净率指标，作为过渡。 经济周期底部，容易遇到市盈率比市净率 的位置言。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 市盈率分母盈利下降，会带动市盈率数值 提高，也会让市盈率所处的百分位提高。 换句话说，过去两年，有的股票股价下跌 了，但是公司的盈利下降更多，导致市盈 率反而被动提高，市盈率所处的位置也提 高了。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...