Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that historical performance is not a reliable indicator for future returns, particularly for Kweichow Moutai, which is expected to maintain high ROE due to qualitative factors [3]. Financial Projections - Kweichow Moutai is projected to earn approximately 95 billion yuan in 2025, with 75% of profits allocated for dividends, and an additional 6 billion yuan for share buybacks, resulting in a total of 77.25 billion yuan for shareholder returns [5]. - The company is expected to retain around 18 billion yuan annually, assuming a conservative profit growth rate of 0% and maintaining the buyback program [5][6]. ROE Analysis - With a net asset value of 300 billion yuan and a net profit of 95 billion yuan, the current ROE is calculated at 31.67%. By 2035, if profits remain stable, the ROE is projected to decrease to 19.79% due to increased net assets [6]. - To maintain the current ROE of 31.67%, Kweichow Moutai would need a profit growth rate of at least 6.01%. If profit growth is below this threshold, the company could increase dividends and buybacks to enhance shareholder returns [7]. Dividend Strategy - The article suggests that Kweichow Moutai may eventually implement a dividend payout ratio exceeding 100%, combining dividends and buybacks that surpass net profits, potentially within five years [9]. - The company has the capacity to distribute significant returns to shareholders without requiring substantial capital investments, as it primarily needs funds for capacity expansion [8]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The article argues that as long as consumer incomes continue to rise, Kweichow Moutai's profits are unlikely to decline, allowing for high dividends while maintaining a strong ROE [9]. - The investment thesis is based on the belief that holding Kweichow Moutai stock for the long term will yield returns closely aligned with the company's ROE performance [10].

Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 138 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [1] - The total operating revenue for 2024 was 420.51 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.9% year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow was 220.89 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year, while free cash flow reached 97.5 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 94.42 billion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year and 4.8% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to falling oil prices and reduced trade income [1] Production and Cost Management - The company achieved record high oil and gas net production of 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [2] - Oil and gas sales revenue reached 355.62 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% increase year-on-year [2] - The average realized price for crude oil was 76.8 USD per barrel, down 1.6% year-on-year, with a narrowing discount to Brent crude [2] - The main cost per barrel of oil equivalent was 28.52 USD, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [2] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - The company completed capital expenditures of 132.5 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year [3] - The company made 11 new discoveries and confirmed net reserves of 727 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 7.2% increase year-on-year [3] - The board proposed a final dividend of 0.66 HKD per share, with a total annual dividend of 1.40 HKD per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 44.7% [3]