Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices are expected to rise significantly in the upcoming adjustment on June 17, with the main 92 gasoline likely entering the "7 yuan" range after a series of price fluctuations throughout the year [1][3][7]. Price Adjustments - As of now, there have been 11 price adjustments in 2025, with 5 decreases, 4 increases, and 2 instances where prices were held steady [3]. - The last adjustment saw an increase of 65 yuan and 60 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, respectively, narrowing the overall price drop to 590 yuan and 570 yuan per ton [3]. - The current price for mainstream 92 gasoline has rebounded to approximately 6.93 yuan per liter in Shandong [3]. Market Trends - The recent price adjustment cycle has shown a significant increase in oil prices, with a current average of 66 USD per barrel and a 4.5% change rate [5]. - International oil prices have surged, with WTI rising by 4.94 USD to 72.98 USD per barrel and Brent increasing by 4.87 USD to 74.23 USD per barrel, marking a daily increase of over 7% and a weekly increase exceeding 13% [5]. - Factors contributing to the rise in oil prices include the onset of the energy consumption peak season and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel [5][7]. Future Expectations - The upcoming price adjustment is anticipated to result in an increase of over 200 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to a rise of more than 0.2 yuan per liter [7]. - Stakeholders are advised to refuel before the price hike, as the adjustment is expected to lead to significant additional costs for consumers [7].

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant increase in international oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, economic negotiations, and seasonal demand [2][4] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of June 12, international oil prices surged by 4.9%, with WTI crude rising by $3.17 to $68.15 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by $2.9 to $69.77 per barrel [2] - Domestic crude oil prices also increased, with Shanghai crude rising by 16.2 yuan to 497.4 yuan per barrel, reflecting a 3.37% increase [2] Group 2: Factors Supporting Price Increase - Tensions between the U.S. and Iran may escalate, raising concerns about potential military actions by Israel against Iran, which heightens supply risk [2] - Optimism surrounding negotiations between the world's two largest economies has alleviated fears of economic downturn, supporting energy demand prospects [2] - The onset of the summer season is expected to boost energy consumption significantly, reinforcing concerns about tight supply [2] Group 3: Domestic Price Adjustments - The average crude oil price in the domestic market was $65.62 per barrel as of the seventh working day of the current pricing cycle, with a crude oil change rate of 3.89% [4] - Predictions indicate a potential increase in domestic oil prices by 130 yuan per ton, with expectations of gasoline and diesel prices rising by approximately 0.1 to 0.12 yuan per liter [4] - The next oil price adjustment is anticipated to result in an increase of 160 to 220 yuan per ton, with the final adjustment expected on June 17 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in oil prices marks the end of a four-month decline, with expectations for further increases in the near future, potentially leading domestic gasoline prices to exceed 7 yuan per liter [1][3]. Price Trends - The current pricing cycle for oil runs from June 4 to June 17, with the next adjustment scheduled for June 17 at 24:00 [3]. - As of June 8, the domestic oil price adjustment is on hold, with a reference increase of 0.05 to 0.06 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline anticipated due to a 1.72% change in crude oil prices [3][5]. Market Influences - The recent rise in international oil prices is supported by a strong U.S. employment report, which has bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, thus enhancing bullish sentiment in the oil market [5]. - Despite OPEC+ planning to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the onset of the summer energy consumption peak and ongoing trade negotiations between major economies have alleviated demand concerns [5][7]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have contributed to a risk-averse sentiment in the market, further supporting oil price increases [5]. Future Outlook - With nine days remaining until the next price adjustment, the potential for further increases in domestic oil prices remains high, especially if the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations materialize [7]. - The upcoming price adjustment on June 17 is anticipated to be the fifth increase of the year, with 92 octane gasoline likely to return to the "7 yuan era" [7].