然而，距离本次调价仅剩2个工作日，隔夜原油市场，国际油价出现显著上涨的局面！据悉，WTI原油大涨4.94美元，报价在72.98美元/桶，布伦特原油上涨 4.87美元，报价在74.23美元/桶，国际油价单日大涨超7%，周内累计大涨超13%…… 据机构分析，隔夜原油价格大幅上涨，支撑原油涨价的逻辑，一方面，受能源消费旺季到来，北美进入驾车高峰，且，全球前2个主要经济体贸易磋商取得 积极消息，市场对于能源消费前景改善；另一方面，受昨日中东局势升级，伊朗与以色列冲突爆发，以色列对伊朗重要设施以及人员进行打击，伊朗全面报 复启动，中东地缘局势升温，这增加了原油供应路线的担忧，加剧了原油价格上涨的局面！ 赶紧加油，3天后油价大涨！车友们，在国内成品油市场，基于上次油价6月初恢复上涨，当前，各地加油站油价执行汽柴油上涨0.05-0.06元/升后的水平， 全国油价处于今年"第2低"的水平，主流92号汽油仍处于"6元时代"！但是，随着新一轮油价调整进入倒计时，下周二，6月17日24时，今年第12次油价调 整，国内油价或大涨，此番油价涨价后，主流92号汽油将全面涨入"7字头"！具体分析如下： 全国油价大降近0.5元/升后，油价或 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant increase in international oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, economic negotiations, and seasonal demand [2][4] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of June 12, international oil prices surged by 4.9%, with WTI crude rising by $3.17 to $68.15 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by $2.9 to $69.77 per barrel [2] - Domestic crude oil prices also increased, with Shanghai crude rising by 16.2 yuan to 497.4 yuan per barrel, reflecting a 3.37% increase [2] Group 2: Factors Supporting Price Increase - Tensions between the U.S. and Iran may escalate, raising concerns about potential military actions by Israel against Iran, which heightens supply risk [2] - Optimism surrounding negotiations between the world's two largest economies has alleviated fears of economic downturn, supporting energy demand prospects [2] - The onset of the summer season is expected to boost energy consumption significantly, reinforcing concerns about tight supply [2] Group 3: Domestic Price Adjustments - The average crude oil price in the domestic market was $65.62 per barrel as of the seventh working day of the current pricing cycle, with a crude oil change rate of 3.89% [4] - Predictions indicate a potential increase in domestic oil prices by 130 yuan per ton, with expectations of gasoline and diesel prices rising by approximately 0.1 to 0.12 yuan per liter [4] - The next oil price adjustment is anticipated to result in an increase of 160 to 220 yuan per ton, with the final adjustment expected on June 17 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in oil prices marks the end of a four-month decline, with expectations for further increases in the near future, potentially leading domestic gasoline prices to exceed 7 yuan per liter [1][3]. Price Trends - The current pricing cycle for oil runs from June 4 to June 17, with the next adjustment scheduled for June 17 at 24:00 [3]. - As of June 8, the domestic oil price adjustment is on hold, with a reference increase of 0.05 to 0.06 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline anticipated due to a 1.72% change in crude oil prices [3][5]. Market Influences - The recent rise in international oil prices is supported by a strong U.S. employment report, which has bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, thus enhancing bullish sentiment in the oil market [5]. - Despite OPEC+ planning to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the onset of the summer energy consumption peak and ongoing trade negotiations between major economies have alleviated demand concerns [5][7]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have contributed to a risk-averse sentiment in the market, further supporting oil price increases [5]. Future Outlook - With nine days remaining until the next price adjustment, the potential for further increases in domestic oil prices remains high, especially if the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations materialize [7]. - The upcoming price adjustment on June 17 is anticipated to be the fifth increase of the year, with 92 octane gasoline likely to return to the "7 yuan era" [7].