Report Overview - Research Variety: Shanghai Silver Futures [1] - Report Date: September 8, 2025 - Report Cycle: Weekly - Researcher: Cao Baiquan [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price - The Shanghai Silver futures price showed a strong trend during the week. The closing price of the main contract, Shanghai Silver 2510, was 9,812 yuan/kg on Friday afternoon at 3 p.m., with a maximum price of 9,965 yuan/kg and a minimum price of 9,385 yuan/kg [2] 1.2 Variety Market - The report provides a detailed table of the Shanghai Silver futures market, including contract details such as opening price, high price, low price, closing price, change, open interest, and trading volume for different delivery months from ag2509 to ag2608. The total trading volume for all contracts was 6,022,014, and the total trading value was 88.29 billion yuan [5] 1.3 Related Market - In the Shanghai Silver options market, the call option contracts with strike prices between 9,800 yuan/kg and 10,000 yuan/kg had the highest trading volume and open interest at the 10,000 yuan/kg strike price [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Market Conditions - According to Wind data, the basis of the active contract, Shanghai Silver 2510, remained relatively stable over the past five trading days, with a maximum of -21 yuan/kg and a minimum of -44 yuan/kg. The basis on Friday was -24 yuan/kg [8] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Important Events - US President Trump stated on Friday that "substantial" tariffs on semiconductors are imminent. He also mentioned discussing tariff issues with some technology leaders at a dinner and reiterated plans to impose tariffs on companies not entering the US [9] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - Geopolitical tensions are high, with the Russia-Ukraine war continuing, the Israel-Houthi conflict expanding, and US military operations near Venezuela. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September are rising, but Fed Chair Powell signaled a cautious approach. US economic data shows an increase in initial jobless claims to 237,000 and a decline in the ISM output index to 47.8 [10] 4. Market Outlook - Silver prices strengthened this week. Lower-than-expected US non-farm payrolls in August, rising unemployment, and expectations of a Fed rate cut drove up precious metal prices. Geopolitical tensions and China's central bank gold purchases also supported the upward trend [11]

Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $2.2 to settle at $3406.5 per ounce, with a gain of 0.06% on the 17th [1] - Gold prices faced profit-taking pressure from investors this week, but geopolitical tensions provided support, leading to a temporary stabilization after a significant drop in the previous trading day [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 0.9% month-over-month decline in retail sales for May, exceeding economists' expectations of a 0.5% drop, following a revision of April's data to a 0.1% decrease [1] Group 2 - The World Gold Council's "Annual Central Bank Gold Survey" revealed that 95% of surveyed central banks expect an increase in global gold reserves over the next 12 months, with 43% planning to increase their official gold holdings this year, up from 29% in the previous survey [1] - Over the past three years, global central banks have purchased more than 3000 tons of gold, indicating a strong demand for gold reserves [1] Group 3 - Silver prices surged on the 17th, with July futures rising by $0.81 to $37.180 per ounce, marking a 2.23% increase and reaching the highest level since 2012 [2] - Citibank noted that the silver market is facing several years of supply shortages, with inventory holders being highly sensitive to price changes and strong investment demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant increase in international oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, economic negotiations, and seasonal demand [2][4] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of June 12, international oil prices surged by 4.9%, with WTI crude rising by $3.17 to $68.15 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by $2.9 to $69.77 per barrel [2] - Domestic crude oil prices also increased, with Shanghai crude rising by 16.2 yuan to 497.4 yuan per barrel, reflecting a 3.37% increase [2] Group 2: Factors Supporting Price Increase - Tensions between the U.S. and Iran may escalate, raising concerns about potential military actions by Israel against Iran, which heightens supply risk [2] - Optimism surrounding negotiations between the world's two largest economies has alleviated fears of economic downturn, supporting energy demand prospects [2] - The onset of the summer season is expected to boost energy consumption significantly, reinforcing concerns about tight supply [2] Group 3: Domestic Price Adjustments - The average crude oil price in the domestic market was $65.62 per barrel as of the seventh working day of the current pricing cycle, with a crude oil change rate of 3.89% [4] - Predictions indicate a potential increase in domestic oil prices by 130 yuan per ton, with expectations of gasoline and diesel prices rising by approximately 0.1 to 0.12 yuan per liter [4] - The next oil price adjustment is anticipated to result in an increase of 160 to 220 yuan per ton, with the final adjustment expected on June 17 [4]

Group 1 - The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates during the May meeting, with Powell's speech tone being crucial. A dovish signal indicating potential rate cuts could weaken the dollar index and support gold prices, while a hawkish stance prioritizing anti-inflation could pressure gold bulls [2] - Tensions in the Middle East, including attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and concerns over high tariffs on imported films by the U.S., have heightened global risk aversion, leading to increased investment in the gold market and driving up international gold prices [2] Group 2 - The spot gold price opened at $3,336.26 per ounce, surged to a high of $3,434.74, and closed at $3,430.46, indicating a strong bullish market. The closing price is significantly above the 20-day moving average, suggesting strong bullish momentum, although there is resistance near previous highs [5] - The hourly chart shows a recent upward trend, but a pullback below the moving average indicates a potential pause in upward movement, likely leading to a consolidation phase. The 15-minute chart indicates strong downward correction, suggesting a wide trading range [5] Group 3 - The silver price opened at $32.479, experienced a notable rise to a high of $33.242, and closed at $33.208, indicating a bullish trend. The closing price is back above the 20-day moving average, suggesting a bullish outlook [7] - The hourly price is near previous highs, indicating potential resistance, with a trend suggesting a possible breakdown below the moving average, likely leading to an expanded trading range [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current geopolitical tensions have heightened market risk aversion, impacting gold prices [1] - The technical analysis indicates a potential topping pattern, with significant resistance at the 3330 level [1] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions within the range, with resistance at 3280-3300 and support at 3230-3200 [1] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market experienced volatility, with a significant drop during the European trading session, reaching a low of 32.160 [3] - The closing price for silver was recorded at 32.595, following a slight rebound in the US trading session [3] - Recommended trading strategy includes initiating short positions at 32.65, with a stop loss at 32.85 and targets set at 32.45-32.25 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have declined from record highs due to easing trade concerns, currently trading below $3300, with significant economic data expected to influence short-term direction [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Gold, as a non-yielding safe-haven asset, has seen a strong performance this year, rising nearly $700 and reaching historical highs multiple times. However, optimism regarding global trade relations has boosted market risk appetite, leading to a shift of funds from gold to riskier assets, which is a primary psychological factor pressuring gold prices [4][6]. - If market risk appetite continues to improve and global trade relations further ease, alongside a strengthening dollar, gold prices may face greater downward pressure [4][6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices need to effectively break below the $3265-$3260 range to confirm a larger downward correction. If this level is breached, prices could quickly drop towards the $3225 50% retracement level, potentially targeting the $3200 mark. A drop below $3200 would suggest that gold may have peaked in the short term [4][6]. - The $3260 level has become a focal point for the market, and investors should closely monitor whether gold can touch or break this level. A significant breach would reinforce a bearish trend and could lead to deeper adjustments [6][7]. Trading Strategy - A conservative approach suggests waiting for a rebound near $3300 to enter short positions, targeting a break below $3260 to aim for $3230. More aggressive traders may consider entering short positions around the current price of $3287, with plans to add to positions on any rebounds [7][9].