Group 1 - The policy direction is expected to accelerate the construction of a "self-controllable + internal circulation" system, focusing on key technology breakthroughs, supply chain enhancements, and energy security [1] - The main themes of the policy are anticipated to be technological independence, domestic substitution, and the establishment of new productive forces, benefiting sectors such as high-end manufacturing, semiconductor equipment, new materials, and new energy [1] - Consumer, pharmaceutical, and digital economy sectors driven by domestic demand are likely to show resilience amid economic recovery and policy support [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is characterized by "steady progress and defensive growth," with investment recommendations focusing on the "self-controllable + internal circulation" direction [1] - The Guotai 50 ETF (159375) tracks the ChiNext 50 Index (399673), which has a daily fluctuation of 20%, selecting 50 stocks with large market capitalization and excellent liquidity from the ChiNext market [1] - The index components are highly concentrated in sectors such as power equipment, biomedicine, and electronics, reflecting the core characteristics of "technology + growth" and showcasing the overall performance of innovative and high-growth listed companies in the ChiNext market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to refocus on domestic fundamentals under a neutral scenario, with policies accelerating the construction of a "self-controllable + internal circulation" system, emphasizing key technology breakthroughs, supply chain enhancements, and energy security [1] Group 1: Policy and Economic Focus - The core policy direction is anticipated to center on technological independence, domestic substitution, and the construction of new productive forces [1] - High-end manufacturing, semiconductor equipment, new materials, and new energy supply chains are expected to benefit continuously from these policies [1] - Consumption, pharmaceuticals, and digital economy sectors driven by domestic demand may show resilience amid economic recovery and policy support [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Indices - The Guotai 50 ETF (159375) tracks the ChiNext 50 Index (399673), which has a daily fluctuation of 20% [1] - The index selects 50 stocks with large market capitalization and excellent liquidity from the ChiNext market, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as information technology, new energy, and biomedicine [1] - The constituent stocks of the index are highly concentrated in sectors like power equipment, biomedicine, and electronics, reflecting the core characteristics of "technology + growth" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that while the A-share market may face short-term pressure, the overall risk is manageable, and the market focus is expected to return to domestic fundamentals [1] - The policy direction is likely to accelerate the construction of a "self-controllable + internal circulation" system, focusing on key technology breakthroughs, supply chain enhancements, and energy security [1] - Key sectors such as high-end manufacturing, semiconductor equipment, new materials, and new energy are expected to benefit from the policy focus on technological independence and domestic demand-driven growth [1] Group 2 - The Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship ETF (588360) tracks the Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index (931643), which saw a daily fluctuation of 20%, selecting 50 emerging industry stocks with good liquidity and market capitalization from the Sci-Tech and ChiNext boards [1] - The index samples focus on hard technology and mature innovative enterprises, reflecting the technological barriers and growth performance of China's frontier industries [1]

Group 1 - The report discusses the impact of escalating trade tensions between China and the US on the A-share market, emphasizing a scenario-based approach rather than direct predictions [3][6][15] - In an optimistic scenario, a typical "TACO" trade is characterized by major indices quickly recovering from declines and reaching new highs, with the technology and high-end manufacturing sectors leading the recovery [6][15] - The neutral scenario suggests a "non-standard TACO" trade, where the market experiences pressure but remains stable, focusing on domestic fundamentals and accelerating the "self-reliance + internal circulation" policy [15][18] Group 2 - In a pessimistic scenario, the report outlines a potential complete abandonment of previous trade strategies by the US, leading to severe trade restrictions and a significant tightening of the global trade environment [22][23] - The report highlights that in the event of heightened global trade tensions, the A-share market may shift towards defensive assets, favoring high dividend, low valuation sectors such as traditional energy and utilities [25][40] - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend of the A-share market remains intact, driven by structural trends in industries such as AI and technology [40][41] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key upcoming meetings and policy announcements that could influence market dynamics, particularly in relation to trade negotiations [38][40] - It notes that historical experiences from previous bull markets indicate a potential adjustment threshold of around 15% for major indices, which could serve as a psychological reference point for investors [26][29] - The report suggests that even in a non-standard TACO scenario, there will be opportunities for upward trends within specific sectors, particularly in precious metals and industries benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [45]