Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Outperform" rating for the aviation sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry relative to the overall market performance [72]. Core Insights - The global aviation market is expected to see sustained growth in demand over the next two decades, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% for global air passenger traffic, particularly driven by the Asia-Pacific region [3][5]. - The aircraft supply chain is currently facing significant disruptions, with recovery efforts progressing slowly due to multiple challenges [4][32]. - The demand for aircraft is projected to remain high, with the global fleet expected to double to 49,220 aircraft by 2044, driven by both fleet expansion and the need for fleet renewal [5][13]. - The narrow-body aircraft segment is anticipated to dominate future demand, accounting for 81% of the total aircraft demand [20][21]. - The supply of aircraft has fallen short of demand, leading to increased values and rental rates for aircraft and components [5][63]. Summary by Sections Future Demand Outlook - The aviation demand is projected to grow significantly, with the average number of flights per person in China increasing from 0.6 in 2024 to 1.8 by 2044 [6][10]. - Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa are expected to surpass North America and Europe in terms of aviation capacity share, reaching over 50% by 2044 [10][11]. Aircraft Supply Chain Challenges - The aircraft supply chain is currently disordered, with significant gaps in supply for narrow-body and wide-body aircraft, estimated at 1,200 and 300 units respectively [32][49]. - Manufacturers are struggling with delivery capabilities, with production levels still below pre-pandemic figures [37][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the aviation sector due to limited supply growth and resilient demand, with specific recommendations for airlines such as China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [71][72]. - It also highlights opportunities in global aircraft leasing companies and maintenance service providers [71].

高温合金是航空发动机关键材料，通过添加铬、钴、钼等元素提高抗氧 化和抗腐蚀性能，其中镍基高温合金 Inconel 718 应用最广泛，用于制 造叶片、盘类等核心部件。单晶高温合金耐热能力强，用于制造涡轮叶 片及挡板盘。 航空发动机中，锻造高温合金占比最高（60%-70%），主要用于叶片 和机匣；铸造高温合金占比 20%-30%，用于涡轮叶片和基匣；粉末高 温合金占比约 10%，用于涡轮盘。未来新型号发动机可能改变这些比例。 波音交付量因 737 MAX 事故和 FAA 限制而下降，空客交付量虽未达预 期但持续上升。航空供应链瓶颈包括钛供应紧张（受俄乌战争影响）和 产能不足（设备、人员短缺），高温合金冶炼设备订购周期长。 高温合金环节存在产能紧张，镍价上涨，市场由美国 PCC、ITC 等巨头 主导。铸件生产周期长，设备要求高，产能提升困难。中国在钛合金领 域有优势，但整体面临国际竞争压力。 高温合金设备从设计到运营需两年以上，涉及设备制造、调试和认证。 预计到 2028 年，供需矛盾将缓解，因国际巨头签订长期协议推动产能 投资，但市场变化快，需谨慎扩张生产线。 Q&A 高温合金的主要应用领域是什么？ 高温合金主 ...

同样是在去年的珠海航展上，中国商飞也发布预测数据称，未来20年，预计中国航空运输市场将接收喷 气客机9323架。其中，支线客机821架，单通道客机6881架，双通道客机1621架，显示出中小型民航客 机的旺盛需求。目前，中国商飞制造的支线客机C909和单通道客机C919已取得大量订单，并逐步走出 国门。 巴航工业表示，近期在中国获得型号合格证的E190-E2飞机和E195-E2飞机瞄准的是100至150座级市 场，可以与中国国产的C919、C909实现互补，这种产品组合能更好满足中国市场多样化的需求。"我们 对中国市场充满信心"。 除向中国市场直接销售飞机外，巴航工业也与中国航空产业链有着密切合作。早在2003年，巴航工业与 中方组建合资工厂，开始在中国本土生产ERJ145支线飞机。 巴航工业是巴西重要的航空企业，也是全球主要的支线飞机制造商。统计数据显示，目前中国航空公司 共运营约80架巴航工业制造的E系列飞机。 巴航工业对《环球时报》记者表示，中国是一个需求强劲的市场，公司正在与中国的潜在合作伙伴共同 开发更多机会。在去年举行的第十五届中国国际航空航天博览会（珠海航展）上，巴航工业发布的《中 国航空市场展 ...