智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，25Q3，航空行业存量供给持续消化，旺季飞机利用率超 2019年，预示着未来供给增速有望放缓；同时，国际航线大幅增投、国内运力增速有限，预示着国内竞 争格局优化，而客座率高位下，票价水平有望改善。目前油价、汇率迎来双重利好，四季度呈现"淡季 不淡"趋势，预计2025年四季度航空行业有望大幅减亏，2026年行业盈利弹性有望释放。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 飞机利用率同比提升，国际航线恢复较快 航班量&旅客量：国内增速较低，国际恢复较快。2025年Q3，整体/国内/国际/地区航班量同比增长 3%/2%/12%/7%，整体/国内/国际/地区旅客量同比增长3.90%/2.84%/15.31%/-2.37%。 航司运力投放：除吉祥航空外整体增投(受普惠发动机影响)，国际航线为增投重点。2025年Q3，国航/ 南航/东航/海航/春秋/吉祥ASK同比增长1.9%/5.7%/6.0%/4.4%/14.1%/-1.4%。各航司Q3国际线ASK同比 增长9%-28%不等，国内航线增投幅度较小，其中国航/海航/吉祥ASK同比去年下降0.6%/0.2%/6.9%，南 航/东航/春秋同比去年增长4 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The aviation sector is identified as a cyclical strengthening variety within the transportation sector, with a shift in macro expectations likely to catalyze market activity [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is implementing policies to curb disorderly competition and guide rational pricing, which, along with optimized flight slot structures, is expected to improve the domestic aviation supply-demand relationship over the next 2-3 years [1] - The supply side is constrained by aging fleets, with over 15% of aircraft being over 15 years old, and a projected annual growth rate of only about 3% for the domestic fleet from 2020 to 2024, significantly lower than the 8% growth during the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 2: Demand Potential - The resilience of aviation demand is highlighted, with passenger transport volume reaching 582 million from January to September 2025, a 17% increase compared to 2019, and a seat occupancy rate of 84.9%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [2] - Domestic market recovery is steady, with flight and passenger numbers increasing by 13% and 19% respectively compared to 2019, and ticket prices stabilizing with a 4.3% year-on-year increase in October [2] - International routes are also recovering, with passenger transport volume reaching 102% of the 2019 level, driven by the expansion of visa-free policies and improved customs facilitation [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [8] Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to see significant profit recovery due to an early price increase trend, while the aviation sector is still at the bottom of the economic cycle, with potential for mid-term improvements in supply and demand [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In June, the retail sales and express delivery volumes showed year-on-year increases of 5.3% and 15.8% respectively, although the growth rate has slowed compared to May [3] - The price increase trend has started in core grain-producing areas, which could lead to significant profit recovery for express delivery companies if this trend spreads across all price ranges [3][10] - Key companies recommended include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shunfeng Express [10] Aviation - The summer travel season has shown weak performance, with domestic ticket prices declining by 7.5% year-on-year, despite a slight increase in passenger load factor [2][16] - The aviation sector is currently at a low point, but improvements in supply growth and demand could enhance profitability in the medium term [26] - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation and Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements [26] Logistics - The logistics sector is experiencing an early price increase in express delivery, and the bulk supply chain is expected to recover alongside rising commodity prices [3][65] - The cross-border e-commerce logistics sector is showing resilience as tariff impacts diminish [3] Shipping and Ports - In July, shipping rates for container shipping and oil transport declined, while dry bulk shipping rates increased due to seasonal demand [35][36] - The report anticipates stable supply-demand dynamics in August, with shipping rates expected to remain volatile [35] Road and Rail - The road transport sector is under pressure due to rising risk preferences and potential impacts from upstream industry dynamics [5] - Rail transport is expected to see flat growth in passenger traffic during the summer, with ongoing observations needed for the impact of upstream industry changes [5]