京东、抖音电商相继宣布，今年双11大促将于10月9日正式开启，天猫则选择6天后的10月15日揭幕，一年一度的快递大战即将登场。 电商平台的促销周期一再拉长，凸显出电商内卷之下的增速乏力。同样在快递领域，业内似乎已经不再关注业务量能否创下新高，而是全面涨价之后的行 业旺季，将何去何从。 亿豹网发现，但快递人丝毫没有放松的时间，从9月份开始，行业已逐步进入旺季节奏，单日业务量峰值已超过6亿件。面对即将到来的双11大战，你还对 业务增量、利润增长、收入增加有所期待吗？ 或许对于快递企业与从业者而言，当行业价格战全面叫停，淡季开启涨价，业务量不再是考量的核心指标，如何巩固淡季的涨价成果，如何让末端网点与 一线小哥在旺季获得更多，成为业内关注的重点。 很多人关心，旺季快递还会继续涨价吗？ 亿豹网了解到，刚刚经历过全国性涨价之后，很多地方并没有真正落实政策，仅在广东、河北、义乌等核心产粮区价格相对坚挺。旺季来临，这些产粮区 再次涨价的难度较大，反而是之前没有涨到位的区域，有望借助旺季实现真正落地。 快递涨价不仅关系到快递行业反内卷，也涉及到电商产业的转型升级。可以想象，快递之所以涨价难，就在于动了其他人的蛋糕。 近日，江 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase by express delivery companies in key e-commerce regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang has caused significant anxiety among e-commerce operators, with many expressing that the situation feels dire for their businesses [1][10]. Group 1: Price Increase Details - Several express delivery companies in Guangdong and Zhejiang have raised prices for e-commerce clients, with Guangdong seeing increases of 0.3 to 0.7 RMB per package and a new minimum price set at 1.4 RMB per package [1]. - The price adjustments are a response to the national postal authority's call to combat "involution" in the industry, which emphasizes the need to eliminate low-price competition [1][5]. Group 2: Impact on E-commerce Operators - E-commerce operators are facing additional monthly costs of at least 30,000 RMB due to the price increases, leading to widespread concern and frustration within the community [1]. - Some e-commerce businesses are relocating their warehouses and logistics operations to regions with lower delivery costs to mitigate the impact of rising logistics expenses [10]. Group 3: Challenges for Delivery Networks - Despite the price increases, delivery networks have not seen a corresponding rise in delivery fees, with reports indicating that delivery fees are actually declining [2][4]. - The disconnect between rising collection prices and stagnant or falling delivery fees highlights a significant issue within the express delivery business model, particularly for franchise-operated networks [5][9]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current situation reflects deeper systemic issues within the express delivery industry, particularly the misalignment between corporate goals and the operational realities faced by delivery networks [9][13]. - There is a call for a more unified approach to pricing across the industry to prevent regional imbalances and ensure that delivery networks do not bear the brunt of the financial pressures alone [14].

Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a wave of price increases, starting from regions like Guangdong and Yiwu and gradually spreading nationwide [1] - The industry has been trapped in a vicious cycle of "low-price for volume" competition, leading to a situation where increased volume does not translate into increased revenue [1] - Rising operational costs, including labor, fuel, and rent, have severely compressed profit margins, making it difficult for companies to absorb these cost pressures internally [1] Group 1 - The dilemma for express companies, primarily operating on a franchise model, is whether to enforce price increases, risking the loss of price-sensitive customers, or to maintain low prices, which could lead to franchisee losses [1] - Many franchisees are already on the brink of losses due to prolonged low-price competition, highlighting the challenge of balancing corporate interests with market demand [1] Group 2 - The direct result of price increases is an increase in consumer spending, with many consumers noticing the gradual disappearance of free return insurance and higher thresholds for free shipping [2] - Consumers are generally accepting of price increases as long as they perceive value in the service, but initial feedback indicates no significant improvement in service quality post-price hike, leading to dissatisfaction [2] - The industry needs to build a sustainable and balanced ecosystem that aligns the interests of merchants, express companies, and consumers, ensuring that every additional cost is justified and perceived as valuable [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that starting from August 4, the minimum price for express delivery in Guangdong Province has been raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with the average price per ticket exceeding 1.4 yuan [1] - The price adjustment is mandated by relevant authorities, and companies are prohibited from collecting below the cost price of 1.4 yuan, or they will face severe penalties [1] - As of August 5, major express delivery companies in the Tongda system (Shentong, Yuantong, Zhongtong, Yunda) have begun implementing the price increase [1] Group 2 - The current price increase primarily affects low-priced items from e-commerce, particularly packages weighing 0.3 kilograms or less [1] - Industry observers and e-commerce practitioners have been consulted regarding the price adjustment, but as of the report's publication, no responses have been received from the contacted express companies [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [8] Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to see significant profit recovery due to an early price increase trend, while the aviation sector is still at the bottom of the economic cycle, with potential for mid-term improvements in supply and demand [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In June, the retail sales and express delivery volumes showed year-on-year increases of 5.3% and 15.8% respectively, although the growth rate has slowed compared to May [3] - The price increase trend has started in core grain-producing areas, which could lead to significant profit recovery for express delivery companies if this trend spreads across all price ranges [3][10] - Key companies recommended include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shunfeng Express [10] Aviation - The summer travel season has shown weak performance, with domestic ticket prices declining by 7.5% year-on-year, despite a slight increase in passenger load factor [2][16] - The aviation sector is currently at a low point, but improvements in supply growth and demand could enhance profitability in the medium term [26] - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation and Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements [26] Logistics - The logistics sector is experiencing an early price increase in express delivery, and the bulk supply chain is expected to recover alongside rising commodity prices [3][65] - The cross-border e-commerce logistics sector is showing resilience as tariff impacts diminish [3] Shipping and Ports - In July, shipping rates for container shipping and oil transport declined, while dry bulk shipping rates increased due to seasonal demand [35][36] - The report anticipates stable supply-demand dynamics in August, with shipping rates expected to remain volatile [35] Road and Rail - The road transport sector is under pressure due to rising risk preferences and potential impacts from upstream industry dynamics [5] - Rail transport is expected to see flat growth in passenger traffic during the summer, with ongoing observations needed for the impact of upstream industry changes [5]