本报记者 矫月 王镜茹 "双11"已经过去，快递业涨价消息却没有停。"我们这轮涨价只针对特价电商轻件及大客户低价件，个 人散户寄件价格不变。"在广东省广州市，一家快递网点工作人员告诉《证券日报》记者，1公斤价格大 概上浮2毛钱。 从浙江义乌率先设定1.2元单票底价，到广东跟进1.4元成本线要求，再到京津冀、华中地区集体跟 涨……目前，多地陆续采取切实行动，已有22个省份上调快递价格。 在业界看来，这轮快递涨价潮是行业打破"低价依赖症"、重构价值逻辑的关键尝试。然而，低价红利一 旦消退，新的考题又摆在面前：行业盈利模式该如何重塑？快递企业、商家与消费者之间微妙的成本天 平又将向何处倾斜？ 打破低价困局 本轮快递涨价潮始于快递重镇浙江省义乌市。今年7月份，义乌市邮政管理局召开会议，明确要求将快 递单票价格下限上调0.1元，底价升至1.2元。随后，广东省快递底价整体上调0.4元/票，均价涨至1.4元 以上。9月份，上海5家加盟制快递企业同步宣布收件价格上调，涨幅在每单0.2元至0.4元之间。 截至目前，"三通一达"、极兔速递环球有限公司（以下简称"极兔"）等加盟制快递企业均已在核心区域 完成调价，电商客户1公斤内单 ...

快递二轮涨价开启， 回调带来增配机遇 20251019 摘要 7 月快递行业竞争加剧，价格和单票利润下滑，市场对三季度业绩预期 未充分考虑此压力，9 月部分地区涨价政策落实滞后，导致市场调整三 季度业绩预期，但未改变 8、9 月及四季度的业绩弹性。 快递行业反内卷政策坚定推进，部分地区二次涨价，如广东 10 月再次 涨价，主要让利加盟商以巩固网络，河南、江西、湖北等地也落实第二 轮涨价，反内卷政策具备超预期可能。若 2026 年价格维持当前水平， 估值切换后板块仍具性价比。 2026 年需关注涨价基础上解决歧视性派费问题，目前义乌、深圳等核 心产量区出港派费较低，非产量区较高，不利于全国统一大市场。解决 差异化派费问题有助于巩固反内卷成果，稳定价格。 快递行业增速下滑因物流成本上升冲击低价电商，高温影响服装销售， 监管加强约束刷单。预计下半年包括四季度增速回落至 5%-10%属正常， 不压制估值。头部公司如圆通、中通保持较高增速，有望扩张市场份额。 监管托底下，行业将向头部集中并改善盈利，利好长期发展。目前时点， 随着三季度业绩披露和估值切换临近，快递板块估值性价比处于不错位 置。尽管三季度业绩下修，但四季度 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the upcoming e-commerce promotional events, with JD.com starting on October 9 and Tmall on October 15, indicating a competitive landscape in the logistics and e-commerce sectors [1][3] - The promotional periods have been extended, reflecting a slowdown in growth within the e-commerce sector, leading to a focus on pricing strategies rather than sheer volume growth in the logistics industry [1][5] - The peak delivery volume during the 2024 Double 11 event is expected to reach 7.01 billion packages, a 9.7% year-on-year increase, with the total volume during the promotional period projected at 127.83 billion packages [3] Group 2 - The logistics industry is shifting its focus from volume growth to maintaining price increases, especially after a nationwide price hike, with emphasis on sustaining these gains during the off-peak season [5][6] - There are challenges in implementing price increases in certain regions, particularly in key agricultural areas, while other regions may see more successful price adjustments during the peak season [6] - Recent legal actions against collusion among logistics companies highlight the need for fair competition and the potential impact of price manipulation on e-commerce businesses, particularly smaller players [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase by express delivery companies in key e-commerce regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang has caused significant anxiety among e-commerce operators, with many expressing that the situation feels dire for their businesses [1][10]. Group 1: Price Increase Details - Several express delivery companies in Guangdong and Zhejiang have raised prices for e-commerce clients, with Guangdong seeing increases of 0.3 to 0.7 RMB per package and a new minimum price set at 1.4 RMB per package [1]. - The price adjustments are a response to the national postal authority's call to combat "involution" in the industry, which emphasizes the need to eliminate low-price competition [1][5]. Group 2: Impact on E-commerce Operators - E-commerce operators are facing additional monthly costs of at least 30,000 RMB due to the price increases, leading to widespread concern and frustration within the community [1]. - Some e-commerce businesses are relocating their warehouses and logistics operations to regions with lower delivery costs to mitigate the impact of rising logistics expenses [10]. Group 3: Challenges for Delivery Networks - Despite the price increases, delivery networks have not seen a corresponding rise in delivery fees, with reports indicating that delivery fees are actually declining [2][4]. - The disconnect between rising collection prices and stagnant or falling delivery fees highlights a significant issue within the express delivery business model, particularly for franchise-operated networks [5][9]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current situation reflects deeper systemic issues within the express delivery industry, particularly the misalignment between corporate goals and the operational realities faced by delivery networks [9][13]. - There is a call for a more unified approach to pricing across the industry to prevent regional imbalances and ensure that delivery networks do not bear the brunt of the financial pressures alone [14].

Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a wave of price increases, starting from regions like Guangdong and Yiwu and gradually spreading nationwide [1] - The industry has been trapped in a vicious cycle of "low-price for volume" competition, leading to a situation where increased volume does not translate into increased revenue [1] - Rising operational costs, including labor, fuel, and rent, have severely compressed profit margins, making it difficult for companies to absorb these cost pressures internally [1] Group 1 - The dilemma for express companies, primarily operating on a franchise model, is whether to enforce price increases, risking the loss of price-sensitive customers, or to maintain low prices, which could lead to franchisee losses [1] - Many franchisees are already on the brink of losses due to prolonged low-price competition, highlighting the challenge of balancing corporate interests with market demand [1] Group 2 - The direct result of price increases is an increase in consumer spending, with many consumers noticing the gradual disappearance of free return insurance and higher thresholds for free shipping [2] - Consumers are generally accepting of price increases as long as they perceive value in the service, but initial feedback indicates no significant improvement in service quality post-price hike, leading to dissatisfaction [2] - The industry needs to build a sustainable and balanced ecosystem that aligns the interests of merchants, express companies, and consumers, ensuring that every additional cost is justified and perceived as valuable [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that starting from August 4, the minimum price for express delivery in Guangdong Province has been raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with the average price per ticket exceeding 1.4 yuan [1] - The price adjustment is mandated by relevant authorities, and companies are prohibited from collecting below the cost price of 1.4 yuan, or they will face severe penalties [1] - As of August 5, major express delivery companies in the Tongda system (Shentong, Yuantong, Zhongtong, Yunda) have begun implementing the price increase [1] Group 2 - The current price increase primarily affects low-priced items from e-commerce, particularly packages weighing 0.3 kilograms or less [1] - Industry observers and e-commerce practitioners have been consulted regarding the price adjustment, but as of the report's publication, no responses have been received from the contacted express companies [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [8] Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to see significant profit recovery due to an early price increase trend, while the aviation sector is still at the bottom of the economic cycle, with potential for mid-term improvements in supply and demand [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In June, the retail sales and express delivery volumes showed year-on-year increases of 5.3% and 15.8% respectively, although the growth rate has slowed compared to May [3] - The price increase trend has started in core grain-producing areas, which could lead to significant profit recovery for express delivery companies if this trend spreads across all price ranges [3][10] - Key companies recommended include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shunfeng Express [10] Aviation - The summer travel season has shown weak performance, with domestic ticket prices declining by 7.5% year-on-year, despite a slight increase in passenger load factor [2][16] - The aviation sector is currently at a low point, but improvements in supply growth and demand could enhance profitability in the medium term [26] - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation and Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements [26] Logistics - The logistics sector is experiencing an early price increase in express delivery, and the bulk supply chain is expected to recover alongside rising commodity prices [3][65] - The cross-border e-commerce logistics sector is showing resilience as tariff impacts diminish [3] Shipping and Ports - In July, shipping rates for container shipping and oil transport declined, while dry bulk shipping rates increased due to seasonal demand [35][36] - The report anticipates stable supply-demand dynamics in August, with shipping rates expected to remain volatile [35] Road and Rail - The road transport sector is under pressure due to rising risk preferences and potential impacts from upstream industry dynamics [5] - Rail transport is expected to see flat growth in passenger traffic during the summer, with ongoing observations needed for the impact of upstream industry changes [5]