投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【聚酯周报】 市场情绪回落，聚酯偏强运行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 聚酯：大宗情绪热潮，聚酯预期强势推升价格 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | PX市场情绪仍受2026年一季度供应趋紧预期支撑，PX-石脑油价差已扩大至360美元，PX-混合二甲苯价差达155美元，显著改善芳烃抽提经济性，PX市场 | | | | 正处于投机情绪与基本面张力交织的关键节点，国内PTA维持高开工，聚酯高负荷支撑需求。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 聚酯新装置投产推动聚酯负荷维持在高位，PTA消费量维持高位，并且市场囤货意愿增加，基差快速走强。 | | 库存 | 中性 | PTA的港口库存减少3万吨，主流聚酯工厂销售现货。 | | 基差 | 偏多 ...

Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Cost side: Brent oil price ranges from $60 to $65 per barrel. Since Q3, oil supply from the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia has increased significantly, with a bearish fundamental drive for oil prices. However, market differentiation due to sanctions persists, and the impact of geopolitical and macro events on sentiment needs to be considered [2]. - PX: PXN was $271 per ton in the previous - previous trading day (a $6.25 per - ton increase from the previous period). With market speculation on the Asia - America aromatics arbitrage and the lifting of India's BIS, PXN has widened recently. Relying on the current ample MX supply, PX load can be effectively maintained at a high level even with some fluctuations in refinery start - ups. Overseas PX remains stable at a medium - high level. PXN is supported by polyester start - up, but its rebound space is limited due to high PX load and capacity expansion of individual plants. Attention should be paid to the diversion of gasoline blending in the strong gasoline market [2]. - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is - 36 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 194 yuan/ton (a 7 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 255 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Recently, PTA maintenance is concentrated, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts PTA export demand. Supported by the polyester load upstream, PTA supply - demand has improved, and the basis has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the polyester load. In the long - term, after the end of the concentrated capacity release cycle, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [3]. - Demand: The polyester start - up rate is 91.3% (a 0.8% increase from the previous period). Since late October, domestic sales orders have improved significantly with the cooling weather and the start of the Double Eleven sales. The load of looms and texturing machines has rebounded sharply, and the rebound of raw material prices has led to concentrated restocking. The sales of filament yarns have increased significantly, and inventories have been reduced to a low level. The Sino - US negotiation at the end of October released positive news, reducing the fentanyl tariff by 10%, which may drive some external demand orders. Currently, polyester factory inventories are low, and the polyester load is not expected to decline significantly in the short term, remaining around 91% [3]. - PF: The spot production profit is 171 yuan/ton (a 13 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventories have been reduced to a low level. Direct - spun polyester staple fibers fluctuate and consolidate following raw materials. There is concentrated restocking by downstream at the stage - low price, but it is difficult to raise prices. With the marginal weakening of demand orders, the short - fiber processing fee is slightly compressed [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 463 yuan/ton (a 15 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The bottle - chip load remains stable, and large manufacturers generally maintain production cuts. The inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [4]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The rebound space of the 01 contract may be limited, and pay attention to the 05 contract in the long - term. For cross - variety and cross - period trading, there are no recommended strategies [5][6]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][14] Upstream Profit and Spread - It covers PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - The report shows the toluene America - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It includes information on China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [28][31][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It covers filament yarn sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine start - up rate [47][49][53] PF Detailed Data - It includes polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [68][72][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [84][86][93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial for the export of PTA and filaments, but the new production capacity in India and Indonesia in 2026 may reduce their import volume. The export of filaments may increase by 2 - 30,000 tons per month in 2026 [2]. - The low price of ethylbenzene drives the expectation of blending oil, and the aromatics arbitrage between Asia and America has started, leading to the rise of PX and PTA prices [2]. - The supply of oil from the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia has increased significantly since Q3, with a bearish impact on oil prices. However, market differentiation due to sanctions still exists, and geopolitical and macro - events may affect market sentiment [2]. - For PX, the domestic PX plant load has reached a high level in recent years, and PXN has support but limited rebound space. For TA, there is limited inventory accumulation pressure in November, but it will increase after December. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [2][3][5][6]. - The polyester开工率 is 91.3% (down 0.4% month - on - month), with improved domestic sales orders since late October. The polyester load in November is expected to remain around 91% [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 156 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month), with high load and low inventory. The processing fee is expected to remain stable. For PR, the bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3][6]. - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The 01 contract has limited upside space due to inventory accumulation pressure, and attention should be paid to the 05 contract in the long - term. There are no cross - variety and cross - period strategies [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [10][13][15] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene Asia - America spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [29][32][33] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [49][51][60] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][80][84] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][90][98]