Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework in response to rising inflation and the challenges posed by de-globalization, suggesting a move away from the Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) to a more explicit numerical inflation target to control inflation levels [4][7][12]. Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The post-globalization era has led to a significant increase in the inflation baseline in the U.S., with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showing an average increase of only 1.8% from 1994 to 2019, but this trend is changing [4]. - The Federal Reserve may abandon the AIT framework, which was designed to support inflation during low-inflation periods, in favor of a clear numerical inflation target to combat rising inflation levels [6][7]. - AIT has delayed the Fed's response to inflation, with the latest cycle showing a 12-month lag in response to inflation exceeding 2%, compared to an average of 5 months in previous cycles [7]. Group 2: Dollar Circulation and Fiscal Policy - The "dollar circulation" has been disrupted due to de-globalization, leading to reduced foreign investment in U.S. assets, which historically supported U.S. government debt [9][10]. - The Fed's quantitative policies need to align with the U.S. Treasury to prevent difficulties in issuing government bonds, especially as foreign demand for U.S. debt decreases [8][12]. - The potential for the Fed to restart regular bond purchases is highlighted, especially if 10-year Treasury yields approach 5%, indicating a need to stabilize the market [10][12]. Group 3: Financial Regulation and Stability - The article notes that the current financial stability concerns may lead the Fed to relax financial regulations, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), to increase demand for U.S. government bonds [13][14]. - The SLR rules, which limit banks' leverage, could be adjusted to allow for greater investment in U.S. Treasuries, thereby supporting the government's financing needs [13][14]. - The potential for a significant increase in U.S. government debt, driven by fiscal policies, necessitates a coordinated approach between monetary and fiscal policies to manage the rising debt levels effectively [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is initiating significant reforms in capital regulation, focusing on transparency and external participation to reshape regulatory paths and alleviate constraints on credit and innovation in the financial system [1][2]. Group 1: Key Discussion Topics - The meeting's core topics included stress testing mechanisms, the calculation methods for the Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIB) surcharge, the implementation path for Basel III Endgame, and potential reforms to the supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) [4]. - Participants criticized existing rules as overly complex and costly, with a consensus against increasing capital levels, advocating instead for simplified regulations [4][5]. - As of Q1 2025, U.S. large banks held $196 billion in excess capital, representing 16% of their total capital, indicating a backdrop of sufficient capital within the banking system [4]. Group 2: AI in Regulatory Discussions - Artificial intelligence (AI) was introduced as a new topic in banking regulation discussions, with OpenAI's CEO highlighting its rapid integration into financial services, particularly in payments, consulting, and risk management [7]. - The dialogue is seen as the Federal Reserve's proactive response to the risks associated with AI in finance, emphasizing the need for vigilance against potential consumer fraud [8]. Group 3: Regulatory Focus and Future Directions - The Federal Reserve aims to enhance regulatory transparency and incorporate diverse perspectives from various economic sectors, as stated by Vice Chair Michelle Bowman [8]. - The meeting reflects a shift in regulatory focus from Wall Street to the general public, as indicated by recent comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [8].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is moving towards faster implementation of capital regulatory reforms, despite opposition, with a goal to finalize rules before Powell's term ends [2][3] Group 1: Regulatory Focus - The recent Federal Reserve meeting discussed key topics such as stress testing mechanisms, the calculation of GSIB surcharge, the implementation path for Basel III Endgame, and potential reforms to the eSLR [3][4] - Analysts noted that there was a consensus among participants to simplify regulations rather than increase capital levels, highlighting the complexity and high costs of current rules [3][4] - As of Q1 2025, U.S. large banks are expected to hold $196 billion in excess capital, representing 16% of their total capital, indicating a robust capital position that may be constraining credit and innovation [3] Group 2: AI in Regulatory Discussion - AI was introduced as a new topic in the regulatory agenda, with OpenAI's CEO discussing its rapid integration into financial services and the potential risks it poses, such as consumer fraud [5] - The dialogue around AI is seen as a proactive response from the Federal Reserve to address emerging financial risks associated with technological advancements [5] Group 3: Leadership and Transparency - Federal Reserve Chair Powell remained low-profile during the meeting, engaging privately with select attendees, amidst external pressures from the Trump administration regarding financial regulation [6] - Bowman emphasized the need for a diverse perspective in future regulatory frameworks, aiming for increased transparency and market feedback as key objectives of the current review [6]

今日周三（6月18日)亚盘时段，白银t+d目前交投于8978一线上方，今日开盘于8933元/千克，截至发 稿，白银t+d暂8971元/千克，上涨1.76%，最高触及8978元/千克，最低下探8887元/千克，目前来看，白 银t+d盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 【最新白银t+d行情解析】 白银t+d市场技术分析显示，当前价格走势需重点关注以下关键位：上方阻力位方面，8980元对应5日均 线压制位，若价格能有效突破9010元阻力关口，或将改变当前下行趋势，形成趋势反转信号；下方支撑 位方面，8760元作为前期低点构成重要支撑水平，8960元则兼具布林带中轨技术支撑与市场心理支撑的 双重属性。 美联储将召开会议讨论放宽大型银行杠杆率要求的计划，预计这将开启重新考虑银行规则的广泛计划。 美联储宣布，将于6月25日召开理事会会议，讨论修改所谓的"补充杠杆率"，该比率要求银行无论风险 如何都要对资产拨备资本金。这将是美联储理事鲍曼被确认为美联储最高监管官员后举行的首次会议。 放松杠杆率要求可能是美联储几个放松规则计划中的第一个，鲍曼制定了一项雄心勃勃的计划，旨在改 革美联储监管和监督美国一些最大、最复杂银行的方式 ...

市场消息：美国银行监管机构计划提议降低大型银行的补充杠杆率。 ...

Market Overview - Major stock indices in the US experienced declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 299.29 points (0.70%) to 42215.80, the Nasdaq dropping by 180.12 points (0.91%) to 19521.09, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 50.39 points (0.84%) to 5982.72 [1] - European stock indices also saw declines, with Germany's DAX30 down by 258.85 points (1.09%) to 23432.84, the UK's FTSE 100 down by 43.64 points (0.49%) to 8831.58, and France's CAC40 down by 58.51 points (0.76%) to 7683.73 [1] Currency and Commodities - The US dollar index rose by 0.84% to 98.821, with the euro and pound both depreciating against the dollar [2] - Gold prices fluctuated, with spot gold rising by 0.12% to $3389.12 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures fell by 0.37% to $3404.80 per ounce [2] - International oil prices saw significant increases, with NYMEX light crude oil futures rising by $3.07 (4.28%) to $74.84 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures increasing by $3.22 (4.40%) to $76.45 per barrel [3] Economic Indicators - The NAHB housing market index in the US fell to 32 in June from 34 in May, marking the lowest level since 2022, driven by high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty [7] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that Trump's tax and spending plan could increase the deficit by $2.8 trillion over ten years, despite a potential GDP growth of 0.5% [4] Corporate Developments - JPMorgan Chase launched a stablecoin called JPMD, aimed at institutional clients, which will provide 24-hour settlement services and interest payments [8]

鲍曼的"第一把火"：美联储将召开会议讨论放松银行杠杆率要求 金十数据6月18日讯，美联储将召开会议讨论放宽大型银行杠杆率要求的计划，预计这将开启重新考虑 银行规则的广泛计划。美联储宣布，将于6月25日召开理事会会议，讨论修改所谓的"补充杠杆率"，该 比率要求银行无论风险如何都要对资产拨备资本金。这将是美联储理事鲍曼被确认为美联储最高监管官 员后举行的首次会议。放松杠杆率要求可能是美联储几个放松规则计划中的第一个，鲍曼制定了一项雄 心勃勃的计划，旨在改革美联储监管和监督美国一些最大、最复杂银行的方式。美联储没有提供正在考 虑的提议的任何细节，但银行多年来一直要求修改补充杠杆率，可能会免除传统上安全的资产，或者修 改用于计算杠杆率的公式。银行称补充杠杆率实际上可能会阻碍其在压力时期进入中间国债市场的能 力。 ...

智通财经6月18日电，美联储将于6月25日召开会议讨论对补充杠杆率的调整事宜。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's CEO indicated that changes in supplemental leverage ratios could make inorganic growth opportunities attractive [1] Group 1 - The CEO's comments suggest a strategic shift towards considering acquisitions or mergers if leverage conditions are favorable [1] - The emphasis on inorganic growth reflects a broader trend in the financial industry where firms seek to enhance their market position through strategic partnerships or acquisitions [1]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - US non-farm payrolls in May slightly exceeded expectations, but previous two months' data were significantly revised downwards; unemployment rate remains stable, and average hourly earnings were better than expected; bets on Fed rate cuts have decreased [2] - Fed's Harker calls for patience, stating that it is not the time for preemptive measures [2] - Fed Governor Bowman suggests proposing changes to the regulatory ratings for large banks; regulatory agencies will soon announce proposals to enhance the supplementary leverage ratio [2] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Insights - ECB Governing Council member Holzmann expresses differing opinions on this week's interest rate decision, stating that the current nominal neutral rate is around 3% [3] - ECB Governing Council member Vujcic indicates that the current round of rate cuts is nearing its end [4] - ECB Governing Council member Centeno states that interest rates will stabilize around 2% for the foreseeable future [5] Group 3: Other Central Bank Developments - New Zealand's Chief Economist Conway mentions that lower interest rates will promote economic growth in the second half of the year [4] - The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering slowing the pace of its bond purchase reduction [5] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida states that Japan is gradually entering a phase of rising interest rates [5] - Bank of England member Green notes a short-term rebound in prices, but deflationary trends will continue [5] - ECB Governing Council member Escrivá suggests that the path for the benchmark interest rate may require slight adjustments [5]