每经记者｜张怀水 每经编辑｜陈旭 受新冠肺炎疫情影响，2月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）明显回落，环比大幅下降14.3个百分 点，降幅明显。 2月29日，国家统计局公布最新数据，2020年2月份，受疫情影响，中国制造业PMI为35.7%。从企业规 模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为36.3%、35.5%和34.1%，比上月下降14.1、14.6和14.5个百分点。从 分类指数看，构成制造业PMI的五大分项指数均位于临界点之下。 作为反映经济变化趋势的重要指标，2月制造业PMI下跌明显，分项指标全线下挫，这反映出什么经济 现象？背后的原因有哪些？未来PMI指数回弹的可能性有多大？ 由此可见，五大分项指数均处于大幅回落状态。 除了制造业以外，2月份非制造业PMI的降幅更大。 据统计，2020年2月份，非制造业商务活动指数为29.6%，比上月下降24.5个百分点，表明受疫情冲击， 非制造业经济总体回落明显。 从行业大类看，仅有货币金融服务、资本市场服务商务活动指数保持在扩张区间，业务总量继续增长； 电信广播电视和卫星传输服务、互联网软件信息技术服务商务活动指数虽位于收缩区间，但明显高于服 务业总体。建筑业商务活 ...

Inventory Overview - In September 2025, the inventory of finished products in industrial enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% year-on-year[7] - The overall industrial inventory cycle has seen a trend of "active restocking" following the spring peak[13] Industry-Specific Trends - The upstream sector (mining, accounting for only 2% of total inventory) is experiencing "active restocking" as of September 2025[15] - The midstream sector (upper and mid-level manufacturing, comprising 54% of total inventory) is undergoing "active destocking" as of September 2025[17] - The downstream sector (downstream manufacturing and utilities, making up 43% of total inventory) is also in a phase of "active destocking" as of September 2025[20] Risk Considerations - There are statistical sampling errors in the data, which may lead to discrepancies with actual conditions[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In April 2025, the inventory cycle of the entire industrial sector shifted to "active destocking" [2][15][16] - The upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries all entered the "active destocking" phase in April 2025 [2][17][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inventory Cycle Overview - In April 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventory of industrial enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% [7][8][9] 3.2 Inventory Cycle Overview (by Industry) - **Upstream Industry**: It accounts for only 2% of the total inventory and returned to "active destocking" in April 2025 after three months [17] - **Mid - stream Industry**: It accounts for 54% of the total inventory, and most of it was in the "active destocking" phase in April 2025 [18] - **Downstream Industry**: It accounts for 43% of the total inventory and was in the "active destocking" phase in April 2025 [19] - **Specific Industries**: In April 2025, electronics was in "passive restocking", electrical machinery was in "active restocking", chemical was in "passive restocking", paper - making, automotive, non - ferrous metals, instrument and meter, and general equipment were in "active destocking" [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The inventory cycle of the entire industrial sector continues in the "active restocking" phase. Although the inventory growth rate of the entire industrial sector remained flat compared to last month, the largest number of industries, 16 in total, are in the "active restocking" state, so it is determined that the industry inventory cycle is in the "active restocking" state [16][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Inventory Cycle Overview - In March 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of finished - product inventories of industrial enterprises remained flat at 4.2% compared to last month [9][10]. - The inventory cycle of the entire industrial sector continues in the "active restocking" state [16][17]. 2. Inventory Cycle Overview (by Industry) - **Upstream Industry**: The upstream industry (mining, accounting for only 2% of total inventory) has returned to the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [18]. - **Mid - stream Industry**: The mid - stream industry (mid - upstream manufacturing, accounting for 54% of total inventory) is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [19]. - **Downstream Industry**: The downstream industry (downstream manufacturing and utilities, accounting for 43% of total inventory) has returned to the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [20]. - **Specific Industries**: - Electronics is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [21]. - Electrical machinery is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [21]. - Chemicals is in the "passive restocking" state in March 2025 [23]. - Paper is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [23]. - Automobiles is in the "active destocking" state in March 2025 [28]. - Non - ferrous metals is in the "passive restocking" state in March 2025 [28]. - Instrumentation is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [33]. - General equipment is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [33].

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for March show a significant improvement, with EPMI rising 10.6 points to 59.6, marking a seasonal high, and BCI increasing 2 points to 54.8, the highest since June 2023, indicating a potential economic recovery starting from late 2024 [1][5][9]. Economic Indicators - The EPMI data for March indicates a strong upward trend, reaching 59.6, which is the second-highest level for March since 2019, suggesting improved economic conditions [4][5]. - The BCI also reflects a positive economic rhythm, with projections indicating initial recovery in late 2024, followed by a second dip in December and continued improvement in early 2025 [5][9]. Corporate Revenue and Profitability - The improvement in economic sentiment is expected to positively impact corporate revenues, as indicated by the rise in the sales expectation index for March. However, profitability is influenced by both volume and pricing, with a noted decline in the profit expectation index due to falling intermediate goods prices [3][6]. Price Trends - The consumer price forward index continues to rise, reaching a new high since the rebound began, indicating an improving trend in consumer prices. In contrast, the intermediate goods price index has not shown clear signs of recovery, with a decline observed in March after a brief rebound in February [6][7]. Inventory and Financing Environment - Inventory indicators have shown an upward trend, reflecting both proactive and reactive inventory adjustments by industrial enterprises. The BCI inventory forward index aligns with economic sentiment, primarily indicating proactive inventory replenishment [2][7]. - The financing environment index saw significant improvement in March, attributed to a more accommodative monetary policy and increased credit support for private and small enterprises [7][8]. Investment Sentiment - There are concerns regarding investment willingness, as the investment and hiring forward indices showed a decline in March, potentially linked to rising trade protectionism and external uncertainties, such as the recent tariff increases by the U.S. on Chinese products [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's export market, particularly focusing on the "rush to export" phenomenon and its potential continuation or conclusion in light of recent trade dynamics and economic conditions [2][3][4]. Export Performance - In January-February, China's dollar-denominated exports grew by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline from 9.9% in the previous quarter, primarily due to temporary factors such as fewer working days and the early timing of the Spring Festival [2][3]. - Exports to Russia, South Korea, and Africa decreased by 10.9%, 2.6%, and 0.2% respectively, while exports to the U.S. and transshipment trade remained relatively strong [3]. "Rush to Export" Analysis - The article questions whether the "rush to export" has ended and explores its potential duration. Historical context from 2018-2019 indicates that the onset of trade tensions led to significant export activity as U.S. companies sought to stockpile goods [6][11]. - The current "rush to export" is expected to be shorter and less intense than in previous trade conflicts, with an estimated duration of around 6 months due to higher initial inventory levels and rapid implementation of tariffs [11][12]. Inventory Dynamics - The article highlights that the passive inventory replenishment observed in U.S. manufacturers and wholesalers is influenced by the current economic climate, with certain sectors like electrical and electronic products showing significant room for inventory buildup [12][13]. - The inventory-to-sales ratios for various durable goods indicate that while some sectors are experiencing high sales growth, their inventory levels are relatively low, suggesting ongoing demand for exports from China [13]. Future Outlook - The article anticipates that China's export growth may rebound after temporary factors subside, with expectations of sustained resilience in export performance through the first half of the year [4][10]. - However, potential risks such as further tariff increases or unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy could impact future export trends [11].