Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, industrial silicon rose 5.45% and polysilicon rose 16.39%. Both have shown signs of fatigue, and it is expected that they may start to correct next week. The correction range of polysilicon is expected to be smaller than that of industrial silicon [7]. - For industrial silicon, the overall demand from its three major downstream industries continues to slow down. For polysilicon, the demand side still faces significant pressure, and most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging [7]. - It is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuate within the range of 7600 - 8600, with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short term, within the range of 37500 - 42500, with a stop - loss range of 36500 - 43000 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon rose 5.45% this week, driven by an anti - involution meeting. Polysilicon rose 16.39%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry. However, short - term polysilicon has entered an overheated state, and the market's upward momentum has gradually declined [7]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, the supply in the northwest remains stable, and the production cost in the southwest has decreased. The overall demand from downstream industries has slowed down. For polysilicon, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand has weakened. It is expected that both may correct next week, with polysilicon's correction range being smaller [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract of industrial silicon should fluctuate within 7600 - 8600, with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short term, within 37500 - 42500, with a stop - loss range of 36500 - 43000 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the price of industrial silicon rose, the spot price increased, and the basis weakened. As of July 11, 2025, the spot price was 8750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 335 yuan/ton [13][15]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the futures price of polysilicon rebounded, the basis strengthened, and the spot price increased. As of July 11, 2025, the spot price was 46 yuan/kg, up 10 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was 4700 yuan/gram [17][19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Industrial Silicon Supply**: This week, the production and operating rate of industrial silicon increased. As of July 11, 2025, the national output was about 77,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 53.44% [21][22]. - **Cost**: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon decreased slightly, and the electricity price was adjusted downwards. During the wet season, the overall cost continued to decline [25]. - **Inventory**: This week, the warehouse receipts of industrial silicon decreased, the social inventory increased, and the overall inventory continued to decline. As of July 11, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 50,544 lots, a decrease of 1372 lots from last week, and the total social inventory was 551,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons [30][34]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: The production and operating rate of organic silicon increased, the short - term profit was repaired, and the production continued. As of July 11, 2025, the weekly output was 44,800 tons, a decrease of 100 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 69.41%, an increase of 1.17% [36][40]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy increased, the inventory increased, and it was still in the stage of passive de - stocking. It is expected that the demand for industrial silicon will remain weak [48]. - **Silicon Wafer and Cell**: The prices of silicon wafers and cells decreased, which dragged down the demand for polysilicon and industrial silicon [55]. - **Polysilicon Cost and Production**: This week, the cost of polysilicon remained flat, and it is expected that the production will gradually decline. In June 2025, the total output of polysilicon plants in China was 92,160 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15% [62][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In April 2025, the inventory cycle of the entire industrial sector shifted to "active destocking" [2][15][16] - The upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries all entered the "active destocking" phase in April 2025 [2][17][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inventory Cycle Overview - In April 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventory of industrial enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% [7][8][9] 3.2 Inventory Cycle Overview (by Industry) - **Upstream Industry**: It accounts for only 2% of the total inventory and returned to "active destocking" in April 2025 after three months [17] - **Mid - stream Industry**: It accounts for 54% of the total inventory, and most of it was in the "active destocking" phase in April 2025 [18] - **Downstream Industry**: It accounts for 43% of the total inventory and was in the "active destocking" phase in April 2025 [19] - **Specific Industries**: In April 2025, electronics was in "passive restocking", electrical machinery was in "active restocking", chemical was in "passive restocking", paper - making, automotive, non - ferrous metals, instrument and meter, and general equipment were in "active destocking" [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a downward trend. The large number of warehouse receipts has brought great delivery pressure to the market. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy in the medium - and long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7475 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the position of the main contract is 177,592 lots, with a change of - 736 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 37,782 lots, down 4,899 lots; the warehouse receipts of GEX are 60,573 lots; the price difference between the July - August contracts is 0, up 25 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 675 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 587,000 tons, down 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 38,700 tons, down 200 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kilogram; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 16,555.02 tons, down 1,621.87 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 58.67%, down 0.53 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.528 million tons, down 127,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The second - phase project of silicone rubber of Hubei Zheng'an New Materials Co., Ltd. was put into production at the beginning of the year and has officially entered the production stage. The state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. With the approaching of the wet season, Yunnan and Sichuan are gradually entering the wet season, but the south - west region has no intention to resume work [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The inventory cycle of the entire industrial sector continues in the "active restocking" phase. Although the inventory growth rate of the entire industrial sector remained flat compared to last month, the largest number of industries, 16 in total, are in the "active restocking" state, so it is determined that the industry inventory cycle is in the "active restocking" state [16][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Inventory Cycle Overview - In March 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of finished - product inventories of industrial enterprises remained flat at 4.2% compared to last month [9][10]. - The inventory cycle of the entire industrial sector continues in the "active restocking" state [16][17]. 2. Inventory Cycle Overview (by Industry) - **Upstream Industry**: The upstream industry (mining, accounting for only 2% of total inventory) has returned to the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [18]. - **Mid - stream Industry**: The mid - stream industry (mid - upstream manufacturing, accounting for 54% of total inventory) is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [19]. - **Downstream Industry**: The downstream industry (downstream manufacturing and utilities, accounting for 43% of total inventory) has returned to the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [20]. - **Specific Industries**: - Electronics is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [21]. - Electrical machinery is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [21]. - Chemicals is in the "passive restocking" state in March 2025 [23]. - Paper is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [23]. - Automobiles is in the "active destocking" state in March 2025 [28]. - Non - ferrous metals is in the "passive restocking" state in March 2025 [28]. - Instrumentation is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [33]. - General equipment is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [33].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's export market, particularly focusing on the "rush to export" phenomenon and its potential continuation or conclusion in light of recent trade dynamics and economic conditions [2][3][4]. Export Performance - In January-February, China's dollar-denominated exports grew by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline from 9.9% in the previous quarter, primarily due to temporary factors such as fewer working days and the early timing of the Spring Festival [2][3]. - Exports to Russia, South Korea, and Africa decreased by 10.9%, 2.6%, and 0.2% respectively, while exports to the U.S. and transshipment trade remained relatively strong [3]. "Rush to Export" Analysis - The article questions whether the "rush to export" has ended and explores its potential duration. Historical context from 2018-2019 indicates that the onset of trade tensions led to significant export activity as U.S. companies sought to stockpile goods [6][11]. - The current "rush to export" is expected to be shorter and less intense than in previous trade conflicts, with an estimated duration of around 6 months due to higher initial inventory levels and rapid implementation of tariffs [11][12]. Inventory Dynamics - The article highlights that the passive inventory replenishment observed in U.S. manufacturers and wholesalers is influenced by the current economic climate, with certain sectors like electrical and electronic products showing significant room for inventory buildup [12][13]. - The inventory-to-sales ratios for various durable goods indicate that while some sectors are experiencing high sales growth, their inventory levels are relatively low, suggesting ongoing demand for exports from China [13]. Future Outlook - The article anticipates that China's export growth may rebound after temporary factors subside, with expectations of sustained resilience in export performance through the first half of the year [4][10]. - However, potential risks such as further tariff increases or unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy could impact future export trends [11].