Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Bullish [1] - PP: Bullish [1] - PVC: Bullish [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Bullish [21] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [24] - Urea: Take Profits on Upside [4] - Caustic Soda: Under Pressure [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts have led to supply shortages and cost increases in the energy and chemical sectors, causing prices to remain strong. The market is expected to continue its bullish trend until the raw material shortage issue is resolved [1][3][4]. - For some products, such as PTA, MEG, and methanol, the demand shows seasonal recovery, and the fundamentals are expected to improve in March - April [4][19][22]. - Urea has a relatively loose fundamental situation, with high production and inventory, but there are expectations for spring fertilizer demand and export opportunities, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4][30][31]. - Caustic soda has a weak spot market, with the basis continuing to weaken, and the industry can focus on reverse cash - and - carry opportunities [1][33]. Summary by Variety L - **Price Performance**: L05 closed at 8,677 yuan/ton, up 3.1% from the previous day. The basis of L05 was - 267 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 305 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Core Logic**: The spot price increase lags behind, and the basis weakens. The US dollar price of Northeast Asian ethylene continues to rise, providing strong cost support. Some cracking units at home and abroad have reduced their loads due to shortages of raw materials such as naphtha or ethylene, with a domestic shutdown ratio of 12.3%. The planned maintenance volume in March increases. Geopolitical conflicts have raised the price center, and the market is expected to continue its bullish trend until the raw material shortage is resolved [1][10]. PP - **Price Performance**: PP05 closed at 8,857 yuan/ton, up 3.0% from the previous day. The basis of PP05 was - 84 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 551 yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Core Logic**: Some PDH units have restarted, but the upstream still maintains a high level of maintenance. Geopolitical disturbances have caused some MTO and PDH units to reduce their loads, with a current shutdown ratio of 23%. The PDH units are still at a very low level. The market is expected to remain strong in the olefin sector until the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][14]. PVC - **Price Performance**: V05 closed at 5,849 yuan/ton, up 2.2% from the previous day. The basis of V05 was - 79 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was 0 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Core Logic**: The expectation of ethylene load reduction has not ended, and the 5 - 9 spread continues to strengthen. Geopolitical conflicts have not been resolved, and the shortage of raw material ethylene has intensified the expectation of load reduction for global ethylene - based PVC units. Some domestic ethylene - based units have started to reduce their loads. The market is expected to remain strong until the raw material shortage is resolved [1][17]. PX/PTA - **Price Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,070 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee was 317.8 yuan/ton, and the PXN was 280.3 US dollars/ton [18]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue without obvious signs of easing. The TA05 closing price is at a high level in the past year, with a backwardation structure. The upstream cost - end PX has risen more than TA, compressing the TA processing fee. The domestic PTA units have recently reduced their loads, while the downstream demand has a seasonal recovery, but the strength is weaker than the same period. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March - April [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bullish trend, hold previous long positions; pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks in the short - term; TA5 - 9 positive spread due to the expectation of geopolitical easing in the far - month [20]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Price Performance**: EG05 closed at 4,729 yuan/ton. The basis of the East China region against the main contract was - 57 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was 65 yuan/ton [21]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation of ethylene glycol has been repaired, with a backwardation structure. Geopolitical conflicts have not shown obvious signs of easing, and both domestic and overseas units have significantly reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease in March. The downstream demand has a seasonal recovery, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease in March - April [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bullish trend, hold long positions [23]. Methanol - **Price Performance**: The methanol market has a backwardation structure, with the basis and spread in Taicang weakening, and the warehouse receipts increasing significantly to a high level in the same period [26]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market trend, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load has slightly declined but remains at a high level in the same period, while overseas units have reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease in February - March. The demand is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating its decline [26][27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously bullish. The supply - side pressure has been alleviated, the import volume is expected to decrease in February - March, and the inventory is expected to decline rapidly in March. Pay attention to the restart time of MTO units. Geopolitical conflicts still exist, and the crude oil price trend drives methanol to run strongly [28]. Urea - **Price Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,847 yuan/ton. The basis of Shandong small - particle urea was 13 yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 39 yuan/ton [29]. - **Core Logic**: The absolute valuation of urea is not low, with strong spot prices for Shandong small - particle urea. The overall profit is good, and the operating load continues to rise. The demand has a weak reality but strong expectations, with weak winter storage demand, low - level compound fertilizer operating load, and weak industrial demand. Urea and fertilizer exports are relatively good. The social inventory continues to accumulate. Under the background of "export quota" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the urea price has a ceiling and a floor [30][31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on upside. The market has expectations for spring fertilizer demand and export speculation, and the recent geopolitical conflicts have pushed up the oil and gas costs, causing the price to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [31]. Caustic Soda - **Price Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,547 yuan/ton. The basis of SH05 was - 107 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was - 5 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Core Logic**: The low - concentration caustic soda price increase lags behind, and the basis continues to weaken, with the market price falling after a rise. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have intensified the expectation of load reduction for overseas and domestic ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated units. The Tianjin chlor - alkali unit has rapidly reduced its load, but the domestic overall still maintains a high load. The factory inventory is slowly at a high level, and the spot price increase lags behind, with the basis rapidly compressing to a low level in the same period. The industry can focus on reverse cash - and - carry opportunities [1][33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to some domestic reforming units reducing their loads, the load of PX units has declined. The supply of PTA has contracted, with Ningbo Yisheng Petrochemical Phase 4 reducing its load by 50% until the end of the month. PTA's processing fee has remained low, and industry profits are still constrained by over - capacity due to new device commissioning. The downstream load of polyester has remained above 90%. Despite the end of the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period, the demand for textile and clothing is still acceptable. In the later period, the operating rate of PTA may decline further. The rebound in crude oil prices has led to a rise in PTA prices, and bottle chips and short fibers continue to fluctuate with costs [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price increased from 4320 to 4370, a change of 50; MEG inner - market price rose from 4075 to 4107, a change of 32; PTA closing price went up from 4414 to 4482, a change of 68; MEG closing price increased from 4004 to 4051, a change of 47; 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price rose from 6340 to 6365, a change of 25; short - fiber basis decreased from 218 to 184, a change of - 34; 11 - 12 spread increased from 8 to 10, a change of 2; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 940 to 965, a change of 25; East China water bottle chip price increased from 5594 to 5663, a change of 69; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 5594 to 5663, a change of 69; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5694 to 5763, a change of 69; outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 740 to 745, a change of 5; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 535 to 551, a change of 15.53; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10280; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3940 to 3915, a change of - 25; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16350; cotton 328 price increased from 14530 to 14560, a change of 30; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1654 to 1626, a change of - 27.92; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 6920; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 661 to 608, a change of - 53.47; primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained unchanged at 7310 [2]. Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 78 to 6136. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants were mainly negotiated, the prices of traders were rising, downstream purchases were few, and the market was mainly replenished through futures - spot trading, with trading volume increasing. The price range of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - glossy natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6120 - 6460, in the North China market was 6240 - 6580, and in the Fujian market was 6100 - 6400 [2]. - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5620 - 5720 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The prices of polyester raw material PTA and bottle - chip futures rebounded, most supply - side quotations increased, the procurement enthusiasm of downstream terminals remained at the rigid - demand level, the market trading atmosphere was average, and the price center of bottle chips moved up slightly [2]. Load and Production and Sales Indicators - The direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40%, a change of 0.01; polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 72.00% to 66.00%, a change of - 6; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50%, a change of 0.01 [3]