| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | L | | 美伊进入谈判初期，盘面回归地缘溢价，供给收缩力度加剧，乙烯延续偏 | | | 回调 | 强震荡。国内新增惠州埃克森 73 万吨 LL 及塔里木石化 30 万吨装置检修， | | ★ | | 停车比例提升至 17%，4 月上旬前仍有多套装置计划检修量增加，关注供 | | | | 给端减量的持续性。地缘冲突或逐步缓解，多单止盈。 | | | | 盘面回吐地缘溢价，PDH 利润再创新低，供给收缩仍在持续。南帕尔斯 | | PP | | 气田遭袭，PG 供给减量预期增加，成本端对 PP 仍有较强支撑。国内新 | | ★ | 回调 | 增浙石化二线 45 万吨装置停车，停车比例提升至 23%的高位，供需格局 | | | | 向好。近期资金持续减仓，多单逢高止盈。 | | | | 短期跟随油价波动为主，月差再度走弱，多单逢高止盈。电石价格大幅涨 | | PVC | | | | | 回调 | 价，成本支撑好转。原料乙烯紧张加剧全球乙烯法 PVC 降负荷预期，国 | | ★ | | 内部分乙烯法装置 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | L | | 特朗普再次 TACO，跟随成本短期回调，霍尔木兹海峡尚未解封，成本端 乙烯依旧偏强运行。国内新增茂名石化 22 万吨 FD 装置检修，停车比例 | | ★ | 偏强 | 提升至 15%，4 月上旬前仍有多套装置计划检修量增加，关注供给端减量 | | | | 的持续性。地缘冲突抬升价格中枢，预计原料短缺问题尚未解决前盘面延 | | | | 续偏强震荡。短期波动较大，谨慎操作。 | | | PDH | 利润继续压缩，供给仍有收缩空间。南帕尔斯气田遭袭，PG 供给减 | | | | 量预期增加，成本端对 PP 仍有较强支撑。国内新增中韩石化、镇海炼化 | | PP | 合计 偏强 | 50 万吨装置停车，停车比例提升至 23%的高位，供需格局向好。PDH | | ★ | | 利润仍处于极低位置，预计原料紧张问题尚未缓解前盘面延续偏强震荡。 | | | | 乙烯美金报价继续上涨，期现共振上涨，乙烯法降负带动库存去化。地缘 | | PVC | | 冲突尚未解决，原料乙烯紧张加剧全 ...

| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | L | | 供给收缩力度加剧，成本端乙烯依旧偏强运行。国内新增中英石化、中沙 | | ★★ | 偏强 | 石化等装置检修，停车比例提升至 15%，3 月计划检修量增加，关注供给 端减量的持续性。地缘冲突抬升价格中枢，预计原料短缺问题尚未解决前 | | | | 盘面延续偏强震荡。 | | | PDH | 利润继续压缩，供给仍有收缩空间。南帕尔斯气田遭袭，PG 供给减 | | PP | | 量预期增加，成本端对 PP 仍有较强支撑。当前停车比例在 21%的高位， | | ★★ | 偏强 | 供需格局向好，PDH 利润仍处于极低位置，预计原料紧张问题尚未缓解 | | | | 前盘面延续偏强震荡。 | | | | 成本支撑坚挺，乙烯法降负带动库存去化。地缘冲突尚未解决，原料乙烯 | | PVC | | 紧张加剧全球乙烯法 PVC 降负荷预期，国内部分乙烯法装置开始降负荷 | | | 偏强 | （渤化、海湾降负荷三成，恒通减产 2 成外销乙烯，新浦减产 1-2 成外销 | | ★★ | | 氯乙烯，嘉化低 ...

中辉能化观点 PX/PTA ★ 方向看多 口，原油维持震荡偏强走势。TA 估值较高，TA 加工费 300+附近；基差偏强，59 价 差有所回落，期限依旧 Back 结构；供应端方面，国内装置降负(其中，仪征化纤停车、 福海创、逸盛新材料、威联化学降负；逸盛大连、逸盛宁波、逸盛海南维持停车状 态)。下游聚酯开工负荷提升(但力度低于预期)，终端织造开工及订单提升。上游 PX 基本面持续改善，海内外炼厂负荷下行(预防性降负及计划检修)，石脑油价格大幅上 升。TA3-4 月基本面预期改善。 成本抬升、海内外装置降负。期限 back 结构，近期 EG 华东基差、月差走强。驱动 乙二醇 ★★ 偏强 层面，供应端，海内外装置大幅降负（其中，中石化武汉、中科炼化、海南炼化、 浙石化、盛虹炼化、卫星石化、中化泉州装置降负；合成气工艺方面，山西沃能提 负，河南煤业重启，中昆检修推迟，陕西榆林化学、榆能化学检修；海外装置检修/ 降负偏多，台湾南亚 3#重启，台湾中纤、韩华道达尔降负、韩国乐天丽水 3 月起停 车轮修至 5 月，沙特 Jupc1#、yanpet1#、sharq1#停车(kayan3-4 月有检修计划)，伊 朗 BOC ...

| 中辉能化观点 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | 中东地缘冲突升级，跟随成本端偏强运行。国内外部分裂解装置因缺原料 | L | 石脑油或者乙烯产生实质性降负荷，国内停车比例为 | 12.3%，3 | 月计划检 | 偏强 | | 修量增加，关注供给端减量的持续性。地缘冲突抬升价格中枢，预计原料 | ★★ | 短缺问题尚未解决前盘面延续偏强震荡。 | | | | | 南帕斯田遭袭，跟随成本端甲醇震荡偏强。地缘扰动已造成部分 | MTO | 和 | PDH | 装置降负荷，当前停车比例在 | 22.3%的高位，预计盘面在烯烃板块表 | | PP | 偏强 | 现坚挺；PDH | 利润仍处于极低位置，预计原料紧张问题尚未缓解前盘面 | ★★ | | | 延续偏强震荡。 | | | | | | | 地缘冲突升级，乙烯美金报价持续走高，成本支撑坚挺。地缘冲突尚未解 | 决，原料乙烯紧张加剧全球乙烯法 | PVC | 降负荷预期，国内部分乙烯法装 | | | | PVC | 偏强 | 置开始降负荷（ ...

中辉能化观点 品种 核心观点 主要逻辑 L ★ 偏强 地缘冲突尚未结束，东北亚乙烯美金价格继续上涨，成本支撑坚挺。国内 外部分裂解装置因缺原料石脑油或者乙烯产生实质性降负荷，国内停车比 例为 12.3%，3 月计划检修量增加，关注供给端减量的持续性。地缘冲突 抬升价格中枢，预计原料短缺问题尚未解决前盘面延续偏强震荡。 PP ★ 偏强 供给端维持高检修，需求旺季将临，基本面格局逐步好转，关注霍尔木兹 海峡封控的持续性。地缘扰动已造成部分 MTO 和 PDH 装置降负荷，当 前停车比例在 22.3%的高位，预计盘面在烯烃板块表现坚挺；PDH 利润仍 处于极低位置，预计原料紧张问题尚未缓解前盘面延续偏强震荡。 PVC ★ 偏强 电石及乙烯继续涨价，59 月差继续走强。地缘冲突尚未解决，原料乙烯 紧张加剧全球乙烯法 PVC 降负荷预期，国内部分乙烯法装置开始降负荷 （渤化发展、海湾降负荷三成，恒通减产 2 成外销乙烯，新浦减产 1-2 成 外销氯乙烯，嘉化低负荷生产）。预计原料紧张问题尚未解决前盘面偏强 震荡。 烧碱 ★ 震荡 低浓度碱跟涨不足，基差持续偏弱。中东地缘冲突加剧海外内外乙烯法氯 碱一体化装置降负荷预期， ...

中辉能化观点 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 现货跟涨不足，基差走弱，东北亚乙烯美金价格继续上涨，成本支撑坚挺。 | | L | 偏强 | 国内外部分裂解装置因缺原料石脑油或者乙烯产生实质性降负荷，国内停 车比例为 12.3%，3 月计划检修量增加，关注供给端减量的持续性。地缘 | | ★ | | 冲突抬升价格中枢，预计原料短缺问题尚未解决前盘面延续偏强震荡。 | | | 部分 | PDH 装置重启，但上游整体仍维持高检修，关注霍尔木兹海峡封控 | | PP | | 的持续性。地缘扰动已造成部分 MTO 和 PDH 装置降负荷，当前停车比 | | ★ | 偏强 例在 | 23%的高位，预计盘面在烯烃板块表现坚挺；PDH 装置仍处于极低 | | | | 位置，预计原料紧张问题尚未缓解前盘面延续偏强震荡。 | | PVC | | 乙烯降负荷预期尚未结束，59 月差继续走强。地缘冲突尚未解决，原料 | | | 偏强 | 乙烯紧张加剧全球乙烯法 PVC 降负荷预期，国内部分乙烯法装置开始降 | | ★ | | 负 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | L | | 海外乙烯裂解裂解降负荷范围继续扩大，成本端乙烯支撑坚挺。国内外部 分装置因缺原料石脑油或者乙烯产生实质性降负荷，国内停车比例升至 | | | 偏强 | 12.7%，3 月计划检修量增加，关注供给端减量的持续性。地缘冲突抬升 | | ★ | | 价格中枢，预计原料短缺问题尚未解决前盘面延续偏强震荡。 | | | | 原料及成本压力加剧装置检修预期，关注霍尔木兹海峡封控的持续性。地 | | PP | | 缘扰动已造成部分 MTO 和 PDH 装置降负荷，当前停车比例维持在 24.4% | | ★ | 偏强 | 的高位，预计盘面在烯烃板块表现坚挺；PDH 装置仍处于极低位置，预 | | | | 计原料紧张问题尚未缓解前盘面延续偏强震荡。 | | | | 厂内库存加速去化，59 月差快速走强，关注乙烯法装置动态。地缘冲突 | | PVC | | 尚未解决，原料乙烯紧张加剧全球乙烯法 PVC 降负荷预期，国内部分乙 | | ★ | 偏强 | 烯法装置开始降负荷。预计原料紧张问题尚 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | L | | 供给减量预期逐步兑现，盘面偏强震荡。国内外部分装置因缺原料石脑油 | | | 偏强 | 或者乙烯产生实质性降负荷，国内停车比例在 11.2%，3 月计划检修量增 | | ★ | | 加，关注供给端减量的持续性。地缘冲突抬升价格中枢，预计原料短缺问 | | | | 题尚未解决前盘面延续偏强震荡。 | | | | 地缘扰动已造成部分 MTO 和 PDH 装置降负荷。上游检修力度显著加剧， | | PP | | 停车比例提升至历史新高 24.9%，预计盘面在烯烃板块表现坚挺。当前 | | ★ | 偏强 PDH | 装置仍处于极低位置，预计原料紧张问题尚未缓解前盘面延续偏强 | | | | 震荡，供给端支撑坚挺。 | | | | 厂内库存加速去化，乙烯价格重心抬升，盘面偏强震荡。地缘冲突尚未解 | | PVC | 偏强 | 决，原料乙烯紧张加剧全球乙烯法 PVC 降负荷预期，国内部分乙烯法装 | | ★ | | 置已经开始降负荷。预计原料紧张问题尚未解决前盘面偏强震荡。 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The prices of L, PP, PVC, PX/PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, and caustic soda are expected to decline. The prices of these commodities will be affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [2][4]. Summary by Variety L - **Core View**: The price will experience a callback, and the industry can focus on inter - month or spot - futures reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Main Logic**: Spot prices have significantly declined, the basis has weakened, and the supply side may see a reduction in production due to raw material shortages. The parking ratio has increased to 11%. Geopolitical conflicts have raised the price center, but the short - term geopolitical premium is being reversed. The price range is estimated to be between 7400 - 7700 yuan/ton [2][9]. PP - **Core View**: The price will decline, and the industry can consider spot - futures or inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities. The contract is expected to be relatively resistant to decline in the olefin sector [2]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances have caused some MTO and PDH units to reduce their loads, and upstream maintenance efforts have increased significantly. The sharp rise in propane prices has compressed PDH profits to extremely low levels, providing strong cost support. The price range is expected to be between 7500 - 7800 yuan/ton [13]. PVC - **Core View**: The price will decline. The high inventory restricts the rebound space, and the market should be treated with a wait - and - see attitude [2]. - **Main Logic**: Calcium carbide prices continue to rise, and profits in Shandong have turned negative. The high - inventory pattern persists, but the shortage of raw material ethylene may lead to a reduction in the load of global ethylene - based PVC units. Attention should be paid to changes in export order volumes. The price range is estimated to be between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton [17]. PX/PTA - **Core View**: The price will decline. With the possible alleviation of geopolitical conflicts, long positions should be closed for profit [4]. - **Main Logic**: The coordinated measures of G7 on crude oil strategic reserves and Trump's statement on the war have led to a decline in crude oil prices. TA has a relatively high valuation, and the processing fee is over 300 yuan/ton. The supply side has seen an increase in the load of some domestic units, while downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries are showing improvement. The cost - side PX fundamentals are expected to improve, and TA is in a state of continuous inventory reduction. The price range of TA05 is between 5780 - 6350 yuan/ton [4][19]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: The price will decline. With the decline in oil - based costs, long positions should be closed for profit [4]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of geopolitical conflicts has cooled down, and crude oil prices have declined again. The supply side has seen a reduction in the load of domestic and overseas units, while the demand side is gradually recovering. Although port inventories are high, the expected reduction in imports may relieve port pressure. The price range of EG05 is between 4100 - 4420 yuan/ton [4][22]. Methanol - **Core View**: The price will decline. Geopolitical conflicts dominate the market trend, and long positions should be closed for profit [4]. - **Main Logic**: Methanol has a relatively high valuation. The domestic methanol load has slightly decreased but remains at a high level, and overseas units are expected to reduce their loads. The import volume is expected to decline in February and March. The demand side is weakly stable, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price range of MA05 is between 2450 - 2600 yuan/ton [4][25]. Urea - **Core View**: The price will decline. The market is waiting for export policy guidance, with the expected decline in international oil and gas prices and the spring fertilizer demand [4]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have little impact on domestic urea prices. Urea has a relatively high valuation, with high profits and high production. The demand side has a weak current situation but a strong expectation, and social inventories are at a high level. The price range of UR05 is between 1800 - 1850 yuan/ton [4][29]. Caustic Soda - **Core View**: The price will decline. The high inventory restricts the rebound space [2]. - **Main Logic**: The spot fundamentals are still weak, and the market is reversing the geopolitical premium. The factory inventory is at the highest level in the same period, and the domestic operating rate has not changed much. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may lead to a reduction in the load of overseas units. Attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export order volumes. The price range is between 2200 - 2350 yuan/ton [2][34].