热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯豆油市场分析师杨光红 2025年四季度后的主产区棕榈油步入减产季，但根据马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB月度供需数据显示，实际 产量及期末库存变化不及预期，预期差不断落空，导致马棕期价不断趋弱，进而利空2025年底前的国内 棕榈油行情不断下行。 根据马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）11月（12月尚未发布）主要供需数据显示，11月马来西亚产量为 193.55万吨，环比下滑5.30%，出口量为121.28万吨，环比缩减28.13%，月末库存增至283.54万吨，环比 增加13.04%。马棕产量虽有缩减，但实际减产幅度有限，且因印尼出口增长，导致马来出口需求明显 萎缩，进而令11月末的马来西亚棕榈油库存累积至近五年来峰值。随后的棕榈油市场因缺乏印尼或美国 生柴政策进一步推进的利多指引，持续交易马来方面的供应压力，行情弱势难改。 豆油市场看，随着南美大豆供应近尾，且中美贸易不明朗的背景下，2025年底的原料大豆供应季节性缩 减，压榨企业开工负荷率小幅下滑，豆油产出有所缩减，叠加秋冬下游刚需补货，豆油库存呈下降趋 势。但因前期采购大豆增量明显，年底前压榨企业 ...

期货研究报告 2025年12月15日 棕榈油期货：震荡偏弱 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周国内主力合约显著下挫：国内棕榈油 2605 主力合约是市场交易核心，全周 走势震荡趋弱，收盘报 8552 元/吨，环比下跌210元，跌幅达2.4%。周初开盘于8686元/吨，虽有短暂波动， 但周三MPOB月度报告发布后，利空消息发酵推动期价加速下行，周五盘中最低价触及8538元/吨，最终弱势 收盘，整体呈现单边下行主导的格局。马来西亚盘面震荡承压：BMD毛棕榈油期货维持震荡趋弱走势。周初 因市场对减产的残余预期有短暂支撑，但随着12 月1 - 10日产量转增、出口持续疲软的数据公布，盘面承 压明显，全周围绕 4000令吉/吨关口博弈，周五仅微涨3令吉报4064令吉/吨，整体未摆脱弱势区间，且受外 围美豆油同步趋弱的拖累，进一步回落压力仍存。。 短期马棕12月库存压力仍然存在，限制期价涨幅。国内连盘棕榈油1-5价差走扩，基差报价换月后上涨， 且未来到港减少，基差相对坚挺，短期内预计棕榈油或以震荡运行为主。 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕 ...

期货研究报告 2025年12月01日 棕榈油期货：震荡偏强 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周棕榈油期价触底反弹。周初美国生柴政策扰动频繁，且临近移仓换月期间， 盘面波动较大。连棕屡破前低，领跌油脂板块。而且产地基本面依旧维持弱势，马来西亚棕榈油出口环比大 幅下滑，11月累库概率较大，施压近月期价，一度跌破4000令吉/吨关口。且国内棕榈油持续大量到港，棕 榈油继续累库。不过进口利润倒挂加深，暂无新增买船。另外，由于盘面跌势猛，豆棕价差进一步修复，需 求显著提振，国内现货基差快速上涨，贸易商及油厂挺价意愿强。而后MPOA及SPPOMA产量数据相继发布，增 产幅度大幅下滑，叠加近期产地进入雨季，洪涝灾害频发，市场预期正式进入减产周期，叠加欧洲议会支持 将《欧盟零毁林法案》实施推迟一年，期价大幅上涨。 短期随着01合约持仓快速减少，1-5价差倒挂或将进一步修复，短期预计棕榈油震荡偏强运行为主。操 作上建议：低位做多。 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕榈油产量及出口数据；2.豆棕价差修复变化；3.生物柴油政策等。 | | | | 棕榈 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Report Date: June 18, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: Production in the producing regions is expected to increase month - on - month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently low, as the origin's offer weakens, subsequent purchases are emerging. Due to the inverted soybean - palm oil price spread, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase. It is necessary to further shrink the soybean - palm oil price spread to find consumption [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: With the arrival of purchased ships, the supply pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing volume will rise. However, due to the lack of incremental consumption, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. With the expected increase in both palm oil and soybean oil supply, the soybean - palm oil price spread may be repaired in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The recent expected improvement in China - Canada relations has hit the premium of the policy - expected trading on the market. The current supply is at a phased peak, and the marginal depletion rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. Consumption is limited to the rigid - demand level due to the policy premium and the unfavorable rapeseed - soybean oil price spread. There is high - inventory pressure, but policy uncertainty provides support for the far - month [3]. Oilseeds - **Imported Soybeans**: Brazilian premiums are firm, and the domestic market has strengthened following the international market. The far - month crushing margin has weakened slightly, and the far - month Brazilian premium is high. The estimated arrivals are 11 million tons in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. Supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, and the situation of China - US negotiations in the fourth quarter should be monitored [15]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: Driven by the expectation of China - US talks, domestic soybean meal has strengthened following the international market. The soybean raw material inventory of oil mills is rising, and the soybean meal inventory is also being repaired. The concentrated arrival of soybeans in the third quarter will suppress soybean meal prices. Downstream demand is mainly focused on fulfilling previous contracts, and the basis remains weak [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: There is still supply pressure in June, and downstream demand is lower than expected. Inventory depletion is difficult. Although there are some supply gaps in the far - month, demand is limited. Due to the continuous meetings between China and Canada, the market is weak, and subsequent attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils Fats and Oils Month - to - Month and Variety - to - Variety Spreads - **Palm Oil**: P 1 - 5 is 122 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 8 yuan; P 5 - 9 is - 162 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 16 yuan; P 9 - 1 is 40 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 24 yuan [4]. - **Soybean Oil - Palm Oil Spread**: Y - P 01 is - 492 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 14 yuan; Y - P 05 is - 670 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 12 yuan; Y - P 09 is - 474 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2 yuan [4]. - **Soybean Oil - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Y/M 01 is 2.5546 with a daily decrease of 0.55%; Y/M 05 is 2.7607 with a daily decrease of 0.26%; Y/M 09 is 2.5934 with a daily decrease of 0.79% [4]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: OI/RM 01 is 3.9544 with a daily increase of 0.15%; OI/RM 05 is 3.8555 with a daily decrease of 0.04%; OI/RM 09 is 3.5731 with a daily increase of 0.41% [4]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Palm oil 01 is 8476 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.83%; palm oil 05 is 8350 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.8%; palm oil 09 is 8518 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.85% [6]. - BMD palm oil main contract is 4066 ringgit/ton with a daily decrease of 0.68% [6]. - Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8770 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the basis is 284 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 20 yuan [6]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Soybean oil 01 is 8014 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.1%; soybean oil 05 is 7680 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11%; soybean oil 09 is 8084 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.39% [11]. - CBOT soybean oil main contract is 54.69 cents/pound with a daily decrease of 0.76% [11]. - Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8200 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 80 yuan; the basis is 148 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 8 yuan [11]. Oilseeds Oilseed Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: Bean meal 01 is 3095 with a daily decrease of 3 and a decrease rate of 0.1%; bean meal 05 is 2761 with a daily increase of 3 and an increase rate of 0.11%; bean meal 09 is 3062 with a daily decrease of 12 and a decrease rate of 0.39% [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2412 with a daily increase of 20 and an increase rate of 0.84%; rapeseed meal 05 is 2407 with a daily increase of 13 and an increase rate of 0.54%; rapeseed meal 09 is 2688 with a daily increase of 6 and an increase rate of 0.22% [18]. - **CBOT Yellow Soybeans**: The closing price is 1068 with no daily change and a change rate of 0% [18]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - **Soybean Meal Month - to - Month Spread**: M01 - 05 is 340 with a daily increase of 4; M05 - 09 is - 316 with a daily decrease of 8; M09 - 01 is - 24 with a daily increase of 4 [19]. - **Rapeseed Meal Month - to - Month Spread**: RM01 - 05 is - 2 with a daily increase of 5; RM05 - 09 is - 288 with a daily increase of 2; RM09 - 01 is 290 with a daily decrease of 7 [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread**: The spread is 349 with a daily increase of 19; the futures spread is 392 with a daily increase of 18 [19].