Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that by the end of 2025, domestic palm oil prices are expected to follow a weak trend due to supply pressures, while soybean oil prices will experience limited declines supported by fundamental factors, leading to a narrowing of the soybean-palm oil price spread [2][10] - As of January 6, 2026, the average price of first-grade soybean oil in the East China market is 8399 yuan/ton, and the price of 24-degree palm oil is 8579 yuan/ton, resulting in a soybean-palm oil price spread of -180 yuan/ton, which has narrowed by 170 yuan/ton compared to the same period last month [11] Group 2 - The palm oil market is under pressure due to a mismatch between expected and actual supply and demand data, with Malaysia's palm oil production in November at 1.9355 million tons, down 5.30% month-on-month, and exports decreasing by 28.13% [4][13] - The increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory to 2.8354 million tons, a 13.04% rise, indicates a supply surplus, further weakening the palm oil market outlook [4][13] Group 3 - The soybean oil market is experiencing a seasonal reduction in raw soybean supply, leading to a slight decrease in crushing rates and a downward trend in soybean oil inventory, although the overall decline in inventory is slow due to previous increases in soybean purchases [5][14] - The tightening supply-demand balance for soybean oil is expected to provide stronger support for prices, with forecasts indicating that the price range for first-grade soybean oil in January will be between 8300 and 8600 yuan/ton [8][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for palm oil futures is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic palm oil 2605 main contract trended weakly last week, closing at 8,552 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 210 yuan or 2.4%. The BMD crude palm oil futures also maintained an oscillating weak trend. The short - term inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil in December still exists, limiting the increase in futures prices. The 1 - 5 price spread of domestic palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange widened, the basis quote increased after the contract month change, and future arrivals will decrease, so the basis is relatively strong. In the short term, palm oil is expected to mainly oscillate [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic palm oil 2605 main contract, the core of market trading, trended weakly throughout the week. After the release of the MPOB monthly report on Wednesday, bearish news led to an accelerated decline in futures prices, and it closed weakly on Friday. The BMD crude palm oil futures were also under pressure. Although there was short - term support from the residual expectation of production cuts at the beginning of the week, with the release of data showing increased production and weak exports from December 1 - 10, the market was significantly under pressure, and it was still in a weak range. It was also dragged down by the weakening of US soybean oil [1] Factors to Watch - Malaysia's palm oil production and export data, the repair change of the soybean - palm oil price spread, and the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [2] Palm Oil Shipping Schedule Quotations and Import Profit Calculations - The import costs of palm oil from January to May 2026 are 8,682, 8,729, 8,744, 8,742, and 8,734 yuan/ton respectively, and the corresponding on - disk profits are - 182, - 229, - 244, - 242, and - 234 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the palm oil futures industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1] Core View of the Report - Last week, palm oil futures prices rebounded after hitting bottom. Due to frequent disturbances in US biodiesel policies and approaching the contract roll - over period, the market fluctuated greatly. Malaysian palm oil exports declined significantly month - on - month, and there was a high probability of inventory build - up in November, which pressured near - term futures prices. However, the import profit margin was in a deeper inversion, and there were no new ship purchases. The rapid decline in the futures price led to the repair of the soybean - palm oil price spread, which significantly boosted demand. Subsequently, the production growth rate of palm oil in Malaysia decreased sharply, and the market expected to enter a production - reduction cycle. As a result, the futures price rose significantly. In the short term, as the open interest of the 01 contract decreases rapidly, the inversion of the 1 - 5 price spread may be further repaired, and palm oil is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. The operation suggestion is to go long at low prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, palm oil futures prices rebounded after hitting bottom. At the beginning of the week, US biodiesel policies caused frequent disturbances, and during the contract roll - over period, the market fluctuated greatly. The Dalian palm oil futures price repeatedly broke previous lows, leading the decline in the oil and fat sector. The fundamental situation in the producing areas remained weak, with a significant month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil exports and a high probability of inventory build - up in November, which pressured near - term futures prices to break below the 4000 ringgit/ton mark. In China, there was a continuous large influx of palm oil, and inventories continued to increase. However, the import profit margin was in a deeper inversion, and there were no new ship purchases. The rapid decline in the futures price led to the repair of the soybean - palm oil price spread, which significantly boosted demand. The domestic spot basis rose rapidly, and traders and oil mills were strongly inclined to support prices. Later, the production data released by MPOA and SPPOMA showed a significant decline in the production growth rate. Considering the rainy season and frequent floods in the producing areas, the market expected to enter a production - reduction cycle. Additionally, the European Parliament supported a one - year postponement of the implementation of the "EU Zero - Deforestation Act", which caused the futures price to rise significantly. In the short term, as the open interest of the 01 contract decreases rapidly, the inversion of the 1 - 5 price spread may be further repaired, and palm oil is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. The operation suggestion is to go long at low prices [1] Factors to Watch - Factors to watch include Malaysian palm oil production and export data, the repair of the soybean - palm oil price spread, and biodiesel policies [2] Palm Oil Ship - Date Quotations and Import Profit Calculations | Ship Date (24 - degree) | South China (CNF) | Forward Exchange Rate | Import Cost | Futures Price | Profit Against Futures | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January | 1050 | 7.0494 | 8874 | 8644 | - 230 | | February | 1053 | 7.0356 | 8882 | 8644 | - 238 | | March | 1056 | 7.0266 | 8896 | 8644 | - 252 | [3] This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The report mainly analyzes the palm oil market from aspects such as the spot - futures market, supply, demand, and cost - profit [4] Spot - Futures Market Review - The report presents a graph of the basis of the main contract, but no specific data analysis is provided [6] Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents graphs of palm oil ship - purchase quantity statistics, expected palm oil arrival volume, and Malaysian palm oil production, but no specific data analysis is provided [9][10][13] Demand Situation Analysis - The report presents graphs of China's total palm oil liquid import quantity and Malaysian palm oil export quantity, but no specific data analysis is provided [14][17] Cost - Profit Analysis - The report presents a graph of the daily profit against futures for the December palm oil ship - date, but no specific data analysis is provided [21]

Report Overview - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Report Date: June 18, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: Production in the producing regions is expected to increase month - on - month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently low, as the origin's offer weakens, subsequent purchases are emerging. Due to the inverted soybean - palm oil price spread, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase. It is necessary to further shrink the soybean - palm oil price spread to find consumption [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: With the arrival of purchased ships, the supply pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing volume will rise. However, due to the lack of incremental consumption, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. With the expected increase in both palm oil and soybean oil supply, the soybean - palm oil price spread may be repaired in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The recent expected improvement in China - Canada relations has hit the premium of the policy - expected trading on the market. The current supply is at a phased peak, and the marginal depletion rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. Consumption is limited to the rigid - demand level due to the policy premium and the unfavorable rapeseed - soybean oil price spread. There is high - inventory pressure, but policy uncertainty provides support for the far - month [3]. Oilseeds - **Imported Soybeans**: Brazilian premiums are firm, and the domestic market has strengthened following the international market. The far - month crushing margin has weakened slightly, and the far - month Brazilian premium is high. The estimated arrivals are 11 million tons in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. Supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, and the situation of China - US negotiations in the fourth quarter should be monitored [15]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: Driven by the expectation of China - US talks, domestic soybean meal has strengthened following the international market. The soybean raw material inventory of oil mills is rising, and the soybean meal inventory is also being repaired. The concentrated arrival of soybeans in the third quarter will suppress soybean meal prices. Downstream demand is mainly focused on fulfilling previous contracts, and the basis remains weak [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: There is still supply pressure in June, and downstream demand is lower than expected. Inventory depletion is difficult. Although there are some supply gaps in the far - month, demand is limited. Due to the continuous meetings between China and Canada, the market is weak, and subsequent attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils Fats and Oils Month - to - Month and Variety - to - Variety Spreads - **Palm Oil**: P 1 - 5 is 122 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 8 yuan; P 5 - 9 is - 162 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 16 yuan; P 9 - 1 is 40 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 24 yuan [4]. - **Soybean Oil - Palm Oil Spread**: Y - P 01 is - 492 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 14 yuan; Y - P 05 is - 670 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 12 yuan; Y - P 09 is - 474 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2 yuan [4]. - **Soybean Oil - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Y/M 01 is 2.5546 with a daily decrease of 0.55%; Y/M 05 is 2.7607 with a daily decrease of 0.26%; Y/M 09 is 2.5934 with a daily decrease of 0.79% [4]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: OI/RM 01 is 3.9544 with a daily increase of 0.15%; OI/RM 05 is 3.8555 with a daily decrease of 0.04%; OI/RM 09 is 3.5731 with a daily increase of 0.41% [4]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Palm oil 01 is 8476 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.83%; palm oil 05 is 8350 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.8%; palm oil 09 is 8518 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.85% [6]. - BMD palm oil main contract is 4066 ringgit/ton with a daily decrease of 0.68% [6]. - Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8770 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the basis is 284 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 20 yuan [6]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Soybean oil 01 is 8014 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.1%; soybean oil 05 is 7680 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11%; soybean oil 09 is 8084 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.39% [11]. - CBOT soybean oil main contract is 54.69 cents/pound with a daily decrease of 0.76% [11]. - Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8200 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 80 yuan; the basis is 148 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 8 yuan [11]. Oilseeds Oilseed Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: Bean meal 01 is 3095 with a daily decrease of 3 and a decrease rate of 0.1%; bean meal 05 is 2761 with a daily increase of 3 and an increase rate of 0.11%; bean meal 09 is 3062 with a daily decrease of 12 and a decrease rate of 0.39% [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2412 with a daily increase of 20 and an increase rate of 0.84%; rapeseed meal 05 is 2407 with a daily increase of 13 and an increase rate of 0.54%; rapeseed meal 09 is 2688 with a daily increase of 6 and an increase rate of 0.22% [18]. - **CBOT Yellow Soybeans**: The closing price is 1068 with no daily change and a change rate of 0% [18]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - **Soybean Meal Month - to - Month Spread**: M01 - 05 is 340 with a daily increase of 4; M05 - 09 is - 316 with a daily decrease of 8; M09 - 01 is - 24 with a daily increase of 4 [19]. - **Rapeseed Meal Month - to - Month Spread**: RM01 - 05 is - 2 with a daily increase of 5; RM05 - 09 is - 288 with a daily increase of 2; RM09 - 01 is 290 with a daily decrease of 7 [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread**: The spread is 349 with a daily increase of 19; the futures spread is 392 with a daily increase of 18 [19].