| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，国内现货价格表现抗跌。节日 | 期间最新更新巴西及阿根廷大豆地区降雨依然低于正常水平。1 | 月美农报告公布临 | | | | | | 豆粕 | 短线整理 | 近，报告前预计仍有震荡，豆粕追空看空需谨慎。关注美豆出口数据能否改善、1 | ★ | | | | | 月美农报告及南美天气情况。 | | | | | | | | 菜粕现货库存压力缓解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。中加关系改善前，可关 | 菜粕 | 短线整理 | 注逢低适量短多机会。关注 | 1 | 月美农报告、澳籽压榨和进口政策、中加贸易后续进 | | | ★ | 展。 | | | | | | | 马棕榈油 | 12 | 月出口数据表现不佳，但产量进入减产，12 | 月库存预计仍会累库，但 | 棕榈油 | 止跌反弹 | 考虑委内瑞拉事件对原油价格的提振，预计今日棕榈油下跌有限。阶段操作上关注 | | ★ | 低位企稳看多机会。 | | | | | | | 国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the positive developments in China-US relations, particularly in the context of business exchanges and cooperation following the recent phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump [1][2] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) has organized a series of business exchange activities with the US, including dialogues on health economy and innovation, as well as roundtable discussions in the medical and insurance sectors [1] - There is strong enthusiasm and willingness for cooperation among businesses from both countries, reflecting a shared expectation for stable, healthy, and sustainable development in bilateral relations [1] Group 2 - A Chinese business delegation will visit the US in early December, covering various sectors such as agriculture, machinery, finance, and biomedicine, aiming to enhance communication and cooperation [2] - The visit marks the 50th anniversary of the first semi-official trade delegation from China to the US, which laid a solid foundation for bilateral economic cooperation [2] - The delegation will also visit Canada to engage with local business and political leaders, promoting practical cooperation in the wake of recent high-level meetings between Chinese and Canadian leaders [2]

Core Points - The event commemorates the 140th anniversary of the completion of the Canadian Pacific Railway, highlighting the significant contributions and sacrifices of Chinese railway workers [1][2] - The Chinese Consulate in Toronto emphasized the importance of recognizing the historical role of Chinese workers in Canada's development and encouraged the Chinese community to continue promoting their legacy [2] Group 1 - The Canadian Pacific Railway was completed on November 7, 1885, marked by the last spike being driven into the ties, yet the contributions of Chinese workers were largely overlooked in historical records [1] - Approximately 17,000 Chinese workers participated in the construction of the railway in the 1880s, with thousands losing their lives in the process [2] - Major Canadian cities, including Toronto, Edmonton, and Ottawa, have declared November 7 as Railway Chinese Workers Memorial Day, with efforts underway to establish this memorial day nationwide [2] Group 2 - The Chinese Consul highlighted the recent positive developments in China-Canada relations, including the resumption of group travel for Chinese citizens to Canada, which is expected to enhance people-to-people exchanges [2] - The Consul encouraged the Chinese community to actively engage in Canada's multicultural society to elevate the status and influence of the Chinese population [2]

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex and diversified trend with different products having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, the prices of some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, trade policies, and weather conditions [1][6][7]. - Different agricultural products are expected to have different trends in the future, such as some products are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be weak, and some are expected to have upward potential [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. 油脂 - **观点**：走势分化，棕油情绪偏弱。美豆上涨但美豆油下跌，国内油脂走势分化，菜油反弹、豆油抗跌、棕油偏弱。宏观环境复杂，产业端美豆数据暂停更新，巴西大豆种植顺利，国内进口大豆到港量或处同期较高水平，马棕10月继续累库概率大，印尼棕油库存低位，印度植物油进口或季节性下降，国内菜油供应预期回升 [6]. - **展望**：棕油震荡偏弱，菜油震荡偏弱，豆油震荡。主要驱动因素包括马棕累库预期、印度植物油进口季节性下降、巴西豆种植顺利、国内菜油供应预期回升、进口大豆成本抬升 [6]. 3.1.2. 蛋白粕 - **观点**：中加关系扰动，菜粕大幅上涨。国际上，美豆出口预期受提振，巴西豆旧作10月出口量下调，新作播种进度同比偏快，阿根廷豆播种开启；国内短期油厂开机率回落，库存回升，中期采购、天气和消费旺季决定上涨高度，长期预计2025年四季度和2026年一季度大豆供需无缺口，中加关系或缓和。中加关税预期变化引发资金做多菜粕 [7]. - **展望**：美豆震荡、连粕震荡。豆粕价格受成本等因素驱动上涨，榨利修复抑制盘面，期价回调风险加大。建议豆粕1 - 5反套持有，看涨买权止盈，看跌卖权持有 [7]. 3.1.3. 玉米及淀粉 - **观点**：港口支撑盘面上行。国内玉米价格涨跌不一，港口受期货上涨影响价格上调，近期东北玉米集中上市，运输运力瓶颈对价格有支撑，但后续现货价格仍存在压力 [9][10]. - **展望**：震荡。短期观望为主 [10]. 3.1.4. 生猪 - **观点**：猪源充裕，价格走弱。短期二育栏舍利用率增加但猪价反弹抑制二育情绪，集团场出栏节奏偏快；中期预计四季度生猪出栏量继续增加；长期能繁母猪产能开始去化，供应压力将在2026年下半年逐步减轻 [10][11]. - **展望**：震荡偏弱。近月端生猪处在高位产能兑现期，价格弱势运行；远月端受去产能预期支撑，关注反套策略机会 [11]. 3.1.5. 天然橡胶 - **观点**：反弹告一段落，等待新的指引。天胶先跌后涨，维持底部横盘震荡调整格局，RU仓单持续注销，新胶注册进度慢，估值低，11月进口压力或对NR上方形成压力，短期RU - NR价差或修复，近期涨跌受宏观影响大 [12][13]. - **展望**：胶价维持底部震荡高弹性走势，单边难有趋势性行情，短期关注做扩RU - NR价差 [13]. 3.1.6. 合成橡胶 - **观点**：原料持续走弱，盘面创上市新低。主要因原料丁二烯价格快速探底，市场供需矛盾激化，下游买盘谨慎，市场供应面持续承压，年底前两个月丁二烯供需依旧偏过剩 [15][16]. - **展望**：基本面与原料端压力均较大，在丁二烯出现明显供需矛盾之前，盘面建议逢高布空 [16]. 3.1.7. 棉花 - **观点**：可预期利多多已消化，棉价短期继续上行动力减弱。宏观面贸易关系转好，盘面逻辑回归基本面，国内供给端新棉集中上市，需求端棉纺需求边际减弱，估值端对01合约有支撑但主力合约上行受限 [16][17]. - **展望**：短期01合约区间震荡；长期25/26年度中国棉花年度平衡表可能去库，带动棉价上行，震荡偏强 [17]. 3.1.8. 白糖 - **观点**：糖价反弹，但高度有限。国际市场巴西双周产量高峰期已过，但北半球进入开榨高峰期，国际糖价下行压力不改；国内市场近期反弹因进口管控趋严，但基本面无其它利多，南方糖开榨后供应量增多，内盘也有下行压力 [17][18]. - **展望**：中长期震荡偏弱，操作上维持反弹空思路，糖价运行区间参考5400 - 5500元/吨 [18]. 3.1.9. 纸浆 - **观点**：下游涨价预期驱动盘面上涨，上涨空间仍需谨慎。期货上涨，现货成交好转，针叶价格普涨，但纸浆此前交易的利空未完全结束，下游需求利多带来的上涨空间预计不高，同时也存在一些利多因素 [19][20]. - **展望**：震荡。仓单及弱供需主导市场，但废纸浆变化或带来异动，纸浆期货偏向观望 [20]. 3.1.10. 双胶纸 - **观点**：双胶纸跟随纸浆走强。新增装置生产逐步趋稳，纸张供应过剩，需求端出版招标开始但社会面订单未见明显提振，部分工厂产销压力较大，纸企发布涨价计划但市场观望情绪浓厚 [21][22]. - **展望**：单边策略维持观望。关注新驱动对资金情绪的影响 [22]. 3.1.11. 原木 - **观点**：上下两难，底部震荡。市场对利空交易充分，信息面海运费用升水挤出，基本面转弱，港口到货集中，集成材销售成交下降，新西兰原木外盘报价有调整，后期到船蓝变材压力大，但原木估值不高，江苏市场库存相对偏低 [24]. - **展望**：原木基本面转弱，现货存下跌，信息面博弈反复，近期底部区间震荡 [25]. 3.2. 品种数据监测 The report only lists the categories such as "油脂油料", "玉米、淀粉", "棉花、棉纱", "白糖", "纸浆及双胶纸", "原木", but no specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3. 中信期货商品指数 - **综合 Index**：The commodity 20 index is 2546.82, up 0.02%; the industrial products index is 2237.50, up 0.09%; the PPI commodity index is 1352.44, up 0.15% [182]. - **板块指数 - 农产品指数**：On November 3, 2025, it was 927.07, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a decrease of 0.40% in the past 5 days, a decrease of 2.07% in the past month, and a decrease of 2.90% since the beginning of the year [183].

Group 1: China-Canada Relations - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of restoring and improving China-Canada relations, marking the 55th anniversary of diplomatic ties and the 20th anniversary of the strategic partnership [3][4] - Both sides agreed to enhance cooperation in agriculture, energy, and climate change, aiming for mutual benefits and increased welfare for their peoples [4] - The two countries will work together to address specific economic issues and strengthen their strategic partnership [4] Group 2: China-Thailand Relations - Xi Jinping expressed condolences for the passing of Thailand's Queen Mother and highlighted the strong ties between China and Thailand, celebrating the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations [6][7] - Both nations aim to deepen cooperation in various fields, including trade, technology, and tourism, to elevate their relationship to new heights [7] - China is willing to share its development experiences and enhance collaboration on infrastructure projects like the China-Thailand railway [7] Group 3: China-Japan Relations - Xi Jinping noted the significance of maintaining a healthy and stable relationship between China and Japan, emphasizing mutual cooperation and understanding [8][9] - The Chinese side urged Japan to adhere to historical agreements and principles to ensure a solid foundation for bilateral relations [9] - Japan expressed its commitment to maintaining high-level exchanges and enhancing cooperation in various sectors, including regional stability [10]

Group 1 - Canadian Foreign Minister Anand will visit China on October 16-17, marking her first visit since taking office in May and following high-level meetings between the two countries' leaders [1][2] - The visit aims to strengthen strategic communication and implement the consensus reached by the leaders of China and Canada, as this year marks the 55th anniversary of diplomatic relations and the 20th anniversary of the strategic partnership [1][2] - Swedish Foreign Minister Steneberg will also visit China on October 16-17, with expectations to deepen practical cooperation and enhance mutual trust between the two nations [1][2] Group 2 - French presidential foreign affairs advisor Bonna will visit China on October 15-16 for a new round of strategic dialogue, reflecting the stable development of Sino-French relations under the guidance of both countries' leaders [3] - The dialogue aims to discuss bilateral relations and international issues of mutual concern, reinforcing cooperation and trust between China and France [3]

Core Points - The visit of Canadian Foreign Minister Anand to China marks his first visit since taking office in May 2023 and follows high-level meetings between the two countries' leaders [1] - This year marks the 55th anniversary of diplomatic relations and the 20th anniversary of the strategic partnership between China and Canada [1] - China aims to strengthen strategic communication and implement the consensus reached by the leaders of both countries during this visit [1] Background - The meeting between Foreign Ministers Wang Yi and Anand will focus on China-Canada relations and mutual international and regional concerns [1] - China emphasizes the importance of developing China-Canada relations based on mutual respect and equality [1] - The visit is seen as an opportunity to improve and develop the bilateral relationship for the benefit of both nations' peoples [1]

Core Points - The event "Cultural China: Huaxing Shining" was held in Ottawa to celebrate the 55th anniversary of China-Canada diplomatic relations and the 76th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, showcasing cultural exchange and community spirit [1][2] - The event featured nearly 200 performers from various Chinese community organizations, highlighting traditional Chinese cultural elements through various artistic performances [1] - Chinese Ambassador to Canada Wang Di emphasized the positive momentum in China-Canada relations and the importance of continued support from overseas Chinese communities [2] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The event was organized by Huaxing Arts Troupe in collaboration with over 30 Chinese community organizations in Ottawa [1] - It included a variety of performances such as dances and musical pieces that reflect Chinese culture [1] Performances - Key performances included traditional dances and musical pieces like "The High Climb," "Lotus Drum Dance," and "Spring Waltz," which showcased the essence of Chinese culture [1] - The choir performed segments from "Yellow River Cantata," which served to commemorate historical events and foster a sense of remembrance among the audience [2] Diplomatic Context - Ambassador Wang Di highlighted the improving relations between China and Canada, marking the 55th anniversary of diplomatic ties and the 20th anniversary of their strategic partnership [2] - Senator Hu Yuanbao noted the need for continued efforts from all parties to enhance China-Canada relations [2] Community Engagement - The event demonstrated the spirit of a harmonious overseas Chinese community, with active participation from various local social and artistic groups [2]

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is eager to arrange a formal meeting with Chinese leaders, particularly discussing steel tariffs, indicating a desire for improved relations [1][3] - Canada has faced significant economic repercussions from its recent unfriendly measures towards China, including tariffs that have harmed its own agricultural sector, especially in Saskatchewan [3] - China's recent tariffs on Canadian agricultural products, including a 100% tariff on canola oil and a 25% tariff on pork, have severely impacted Canadian exports [3] Group 2 - Canadian provinces are urging the federal government to improve relations with China, highlighting the economic distress caused by current trade policies [3] - China has emphasized that cooperation requires sincerity and a fair market environment for Chinese enterprises, which Canada has not yet provided [3][5] - The likelihood of substantial improvement in China-Canada relations in the short term is low unless Canada takes concrete actions to remove discriminatory tariffs and restrictions on Chinese companies [5][7] Group 3 - Canada’s diplomatic policy is heavily influenced by the United States, making it difficult for Canada to adopt an independent approach towards China [5][7] - The current trend suggests that Canada may continue to express a willingness to cooperate verbally while remaining constrained by U.S. policies, potentially diminishing its competitiveness in international markets [7] - China is capable of choosing its partners independently, and Canada risks further isolation on the global stage if it maintains its current approach [7]