12月9日，2026年下半年，央行购金、对财政主导风险的担忧以及稳健的投资需求，将可能推动黄金价 格进一步上行。OEXN认为，相比之下，白银在主要需求领域可能会出现放缓，但仍可能跟随黄金走势 上扬。根据Heraeus的分析，贵金属价格在2026年初阶段可能仍将承压，下行趋势至少会持续一段时 间。市场此前经历了快速上涨，黄金和白银创下历史高位，而铂族金属（PGM）价格也达到多年来的 峰值，因此价格需要经过一定的整理和消化期。OEXN认为，黄金可能在下半年重新获得动力，但价格 在恢复上涨前仍可能经历数月的横盘整理。 在投资需求推动价格上涨的同时，实物金属流向市场的变化也对流动性产生了影响。例如，Heraeus表 示，流向美国的金属数量影响了市场供需平衡，同时也存在关于部分PGM可能被征收关税的不确定 性。OEXN认为，央行持续购金将为黄金提供坚实的价格支撑，尤其是在利率保持低位、实际利率可能 下降的环境下。白银的高价则抑制了部分工业和消费需求，但若黄金价格持续上涨，白银仍有望跟随其 趋势上行。 尽管铂在2026年的供应偏紧，但需求下降可能导致赤字缩小；钯和铑市场也因内燃机轻型车辆销售下滑 而供应紧张减弱。小型PG ...

Core Insights - The gold market experienced a sudden drop in prices, with gold prices falling over 2% in a matter of minutes, breaching the $3,350 mark, while physical gold was rapidly sold out globally [1] - In September, global central bank gold reserves surpassed U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996, amid a backdrop of rising U.S. debt [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A significant sell-off occurred in the early hours of October 18, driven by a surge of 120,000 short positions in gold, primarily from quantitative funds, leading to a chain reaction of selling [4] - The disconnect between paper gold and physical gold was highlighted, as physical gold withdrawals reached a monthly high of 47 tons even as paper gold prices plummeted [6] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - Central banks have been aggressively purchasing gold, with net purchases reaching 1,180 tons in 2024, the highest since 1950, as countries like China, Poland, and India increased their gold reserves [6] - The decline in foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries from 34% in 2010 to 24% reflects a growing distrust in U.S. debt [5] Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. dollar is under pressure, with Buffett increasing cash reserves to $350 billion while diversifying into Japanese companies and RMB assets [8] - Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, gold has appreciated by 10,204%, outperforming major commodities and the S&P 500 index [8] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - The gold market reflects a broader East-West capital struggle, with Asian buyers focusing on physical gold while Western hedge funds manipulate paper gold prices [9] - Political pressures, including Trump's threats to the Federal Reserve, complicate the economic landscape and challenge the independence of the central bank [14] Group 5: Financial Stability Concerns - The U.S. federal deficit reached $711 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels, which surpassed $37 trillion [15] - The iShares 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF has seen a cumulative decline of over 40%, indicating potential challenges for U.S. Treasuries in the coming decade [15]