1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, most prefecture - level cities saw an increase in GDP, with higher growth rates in the western region. Nearly 90% of cities had an increase in fiscal revenue, with higher growth in the central and western regions. The growth rate of interest - bearing debt of urban investment companies slowed down, and more than half of the cities saw a decline in the urban investment debt ratio. The default risk of urban investment bonds is still relatively small, and some profitable varieties can be explored [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Most Cities See an Increase in General Public Budget Revenue and an Improvement in Fiscal Self - Sufficiency 3.1.1 Most Cities' GDP Grows, with Higher Growth in the Western Region - As of March 29, 2026, 254 and 257 prefecture - level administrative units had disclosed their 2025 GDP scale and GDP year - on - year growth rate respectively. Economically strong cities in Jiangsu, Shandong, Fujian, and Zhejiang accounted for over 70% with a GDP of over 300 billion yuan. The number of cities with a GDP of over one trillion yuan increased to 25, including Wenzhou and Dalian which exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time in 2025. Nearly 70% of the 257 cities with disclosed data had a GDP growth rate above the national level (5.0%), and 6 cities had a growth rate of 7% or more, mainly in the western provinces [9][15]. 3.1.2 Nearly 90% of Cities See Fiscal Revenue Growth, with Higher Growth in the Central and Western Regions - As of March 29, 2025, 255 cities had disclosed their 2025 general public budget revenue. Nearly 90% of cities saw an increase in general public budget revenue, with higher growth in the central and western regions. 24 cities had a comparable growth rate of over 10%, mainly in the central and western provinces. Most cities in the eastern provinces had a growth rate of less than 5%. 31 cities had a negative growth rate, mainly in Shanxi, Yunnan, Guangdong, and Hunan [23][24]. 3.1.3 The Growth Rate of Interest - Bearing Debt of Urban Investment Companies Slows Down, and More than Half of the Cities See a Decline in the Urban Investment Debt Ratio - In 2025, most prefecture - level cities still saw an increase in the interest - bearing debt of urban investment companies, but the growth rate slowed down. The average growth rate of the interest - bearing debt of urban investment companies in each city from Q3 2025 compared to the end of 2024 was 3.7%, down from 4.2% in the first three quarters of 2024. More than half of the cities saw a decline in the urban investment debt ratio, mainly in Guangdong, Henan, Hubei, and Anhui. Nearly 90% of cities saw an increase in the government debt ratio [37]. 3.2 How to Explore Urban Investment Bonds in Each City - Since the debt - resolving cycle is ongoing and the central and provincial governments are starting to pay attention to the resolution of operating debt risks, the default risk of urban investment bonds is still small. Two investment strategies are recommended: focus on cities with relatively stable fundamentals and pull the duration appropriately to earn returns; pay attention to cities with significantly improved fundamentals and obtain returns through short - duration sinking [3][54]. - For cities with stable fundamentals, 88 cities were selected according to the criteria of positive growth in general public budget revenue and GDP in the past three years and a general public budget revenue of over 20 billion yuan in 2025. As of March 27, 2026, the average valuation of 2 - 3 - year AA urban investment bonds in cities such as Qingyuan in Guangdong, Xiangyang in Hubei, Zhuzhou in Hunan, and Shangrao in Jiangxi was over 2.1%; the average valuation of 2 - 3 - year AA urban investment bonds in cities such as Anqing in Anhui, Xiamen in Fujian, Huizhou, Zhaoqing, and Zhanjiang in Guangdong was between 2.0% - 2.1% [56]. - For cities with significantly improved fundamentals, 30 cities were selected according to the criteria of a GDP growth rate of over 5%, a growth rate of general public budget revenue of over 5%, and a decline in the urban investment debt ratio in 2025. After excluding 8 cities that also belonged to the group with stable fundamentals, 22 cities remained. The average valuation of AA urban investment bonds within 1 year in Shangqiu, Henan, AA urban investment bonds from 1 - 2 years in Jiaozuo, Henan, and AA - urban investment bonds within 1 year in Bazhong, Guangyuan, and Mianyang, Sichuan was over 2.1%. The average valuation of AA(2) urban investment bonds within 1 year in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang, and AA - urban investment bonds within 1 year in Huangshi and Jingzhou, Hubei was over 2.0% [58][59].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, influenced by short-term passive selling due to the BCOM annual rebalancing, mid-term focus on U.S. non-farm payroll data, and long-term support from low interest rate expectations and geopolitical risks [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. dollar index has slightly increased, trading around 99.106, while gold prices are at $4470.89 per ounce, reflecting a 0.15% decline [1]. - The BCOM annual rebalancing, which started on January 9, is expected to lead to passive selling of approximately 240 million ounces (6800 tons) of gold, potentially causing short-term volatility [3]. - The market anticipates the U.S. non-farm payroll data to be a key indicator, with expectations of 60,000 new jobs; a significant deviation from this could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Geopolitical complexities and rising global fiscal debt are increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with institutions maintaining a bullish consensus on gold prices [4]. - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with HSBC predicting $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, and Morgan Stanley and CITIC Securities adjusting their targets to $4800 and $5100 respectively [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Current gold prices are above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $4315.87, indicating a bullish trend, with technical indicators suggesting that the downward pressure is diminishing [5][6]. - The MACD indicator shows a reduction in bearish momentum, while the RSI is at 56, indicating a neutral stance with potential for further upward movement [5][6]. - A breakthrough above the $4500 level could strengthen bullish sentiment, while a drop below the 200-day EMA may signal a deeper correction [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US debt ceiling has been raised from $36.1 trillion to $41.1 trillion, with expectations that this limit will be reached within the next two years under current spending plans [2] - The US government has resumed borrowing, with over $388 billion borrowed since the debt ceiling increase [3] - Fiscal debt expansion for FY2025 is projected at $1.9 trillion, with a significant monthly debt increase observed in July [4][5] - The "fair value" for the S&P 500 index is estimated at 5526.5, with the upper and lower bounds at 6281.4 and 4771.5 respectively, indicating the market is currently above the upper bound [7] - By the end of September, fiscal debt is expected to rise to $37.4 trillion, adjusting the equity market's "fair value" to 5673.0 [11][12] - The probability of the market moving higher is currently low at 1.7%, increasing to 4.6% by September 2025, and reaching 46.1% only with a projected fiscal debt expansion of $3.2 trillion in FY2026 [15][16] - The fiscal debt indicator is above 70, suggesting the market is vulnerable to a selloff, as historical trends indicate a decline from this level [20][22] - Recent market exuberance is attributed to sentiment, with high correlations observed between SPX futures and the US Fear and Greed index [27][28] - The report suggests that the equity market is living on borrowed time and is susceptible to a catalyst for a potential unwind [29] - A limited upside scenario is proposed, recommending the use of risk reversals by buying puts and selling calls [32]