2025 年 8 月 域经济专题 2025 年上半年各省经济成绩单 中西部地区快速增长,东部地区韧性仍存 作者: 中诚信国际研究院 哀海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 赵皓月 hyzhao@ccxi.com.cn 本期要点 2025 年上半年中西部地区经济增速较快,经济大省仍稳定发挥"挑大梁"作 用。2025 年上半年 GDP 规模各省排名变化不大,仅有重庆赶超过宁,前五大省份 占全国比重为 40%,经济大省稳定发挥"挑大梁"作用。上半年 GDP 增速延续"东 低西高"格局,在产业升级、重大项目建设和出口高增等因素支持下,中西部省 份成为上半年全国经济增长的重要引擎,东部地区则受中美博弈加剧、房地产深 度调整和消费疲弱影响,上半年GDP增速低于中西部地区,但仍显示了较强的经济 增长韧性。 【区域经济专题】2024 年中国各省经济成 绩单 -- 经济大省承压但仍具韧性,中西 部亮点突出,2024年度 【区域经济专题】东部省份发挥压舱石作 用,需求修复偏弱,2023年度 【区域经济专题】"腰部"省份竞争激烈, 需求持续分化,2022年度 【区域经济专题】 ...

2025 年 8 月 域经济专题 2025 年上半年各省经济成绩单 中西部地区快速增长,东部地区韧性仍存 作者: 中诚信国际研究院 哀海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 赵皓月 hyzhao@ccxi.com.cn 本期要点 2025 年上半年中西部地区经济增速较快,经济大省仍稳定发挥"挑大梁"作 用。2025 年上半年 GDP 规模各省排名变化不大,仅有重庆赶超过宁,前五大省份 占全国比重为 40%,经济大省稳定发挥"挑大梁"作用。上半年 GDP 增速延续"东 低西高"格局,在产业升级、重大项目建设和出口高增等因素支持下,中西部省 份成为上半年全国经济增长的重要引擎,东部地区则受中美博弈加剧、房地产深 度调整和消费疲弱影响,上半年GDP增速低于中西部地区,但仍显示了较强的经济 增长韧性。 【区域经济专题】2024 年中国各省经济成 绩单 -- 经济大省承压但仍具韧性,中西 部亮点突出,2024年度 【区域经济专题】东部省份发挥压舱石作 用,需求修复偏弱,2023年度 【区域经济专题】"腰部"省份竞争激烈, 需求持续分化,2022年度 【区域经济专题】 ...

2025 年 8 月 区域经济专题 2025 年上半年各省经济成绩单 ——中西部地区快速增长，东部地区韧性仍存 本期要点 2025 年上半年中西部地区经济增速较快，经济大省仍稳定发挥"挑大梁"作 用。2025 年上半年 GDP 规模各省排名变化不大，仅有重庆赶超辽宁，前五大省份 占全国比重为 40%，经济大省稳定发挥"挑大梁"作用。上半年 GDP 增速延续"东 低西高"格局，在产业升级、重大项目建设和出口高增等因素支持下，中西部省 份成为上半年全国经济增长的重要引擎，东部地区则受中美博弈加剧、房地产深 度调整和消费疲弱影响，上半年 GDP 增速低于中西部地区，但仍显示了较强的经济 增长韧性。 中西部地区工业增加值增速领先，东部地区工业企业利润表现亮眼。产业升 级带动中西部地区上半年工业增加值快速增长，但工业企业利润表现不佳，尤其 是中部地区工业企业利润负增长，"增收不增利"特点突出。东部地区工业增加 值稳定增长，先进制造业的快速发展，叠加数字经济融合与高研发投入支撑，带 动东部地区工业发展"增收又增利"。 "两重"项目建设支撑下，中西部地区固定资产投资增速跑赢全国，地产投 资下滑对东部地区影响持续加深。在地理 ...

3. 迎丰股份地处长三角一体化及共同富裕示范区核心区域，近期区域经济政策加码支持制造业智能化升 级，公司作为柯桥区印染企业获地方产业扶持，关联区域经济及高端制造题材。 4. 纺织印染板块受环保升级及产能整合预期提振，市场预期行业集中度提高，迎丰股份凭借国家级绿色 工厂资质有望承接更多高端订单，关联环保政策及行业整合题材。 迎丰股份主要涉及纺织服装、股份回购、区域经济、环保政策、行业整合等概念板块。 注：本内容由算法自动生成，不构成投资建议。 截至9时25分，迎丰股份涨幅为9.95%，已连续2个交易日涨停。最新价8.95元，总市值39.38亿元，封板 资金6.74亿元，成交额0.08亿元，换手率0.21%，所属行业为纺织服装。 根据分析，可能的影响因素如下： 1. 工业和信息化部与商务部于2025年8月初联合印发《关于开展2025纺织服装"优供给促升级"活动的通 知》，推动纺织服装行业增品种提品质创品牌"三品"行动，迎丰股份作为印染企业直接受益于行业政策 支持，关联纺织服装行业及消费升级题材。 2. 公司截至2025年7月底累计回购股份455万股（占总股本1.03%），支付金额2272万元用于员工持股计 划，彰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in thematic trading activity, particularly in Western infrastructure, with net inflows into brokerage and resource sectors. The focus is on the new round of market trends driven by emerging technology industries, especially AI and embodied intelligence [1]. Group 1: Thematic Trading Trends - The average daily trading volume for hot themes reached 671 million yuan, with an average turnover rate of 4.02%, indicating a notable increase compared to the previous period [1]. - Major engineering projects related to hydropower saw substantial gains, while resource futures experienced a short squeeze, leading to strong stock price performance in related sectors [1]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized efforts to stabilize the market, which is expected to benefit thematic investments, particularly in AI and embodied intelligence driven by the upcoming AI conference [1]. Group 2: AI New Infrastructure - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference opened with significant product launches and new demand catalysts for the domestic AI industry chain [2]. - The conference focused on ten major areas, including AI infrastructure and AI-enabled new industrialization, which are expected to drive investment trends [2]. - Recommendations include sectors benefiting from large-scale applications of AI, such as research, autonomous driving, and fintech, as well as the domestic computing power industry [2]. Group 3: Embodied Intelligence - Domestic robotics startups are accelerating product launches and financing, with notable releases like the humanoid robot Unitree R1 priced from 39,900 yuan [3]. - The capital operations and financing processes of robotics companies are speeding up, supporting the industry's scale development [3]. - Recommendations focus on manufacturers capable of large-scale production and components benefiting from technological advancements [3]. Group 4: Regional Economy - The new open pattern represented by Hainan's customs closure and the Western infrastructure projects signifies new trends in regional economic development [4]. - Hainan's free trade port is set to officially launch customs closure by December 18, 2025, promoting a model of "open on one line, controlled on another, and free within the island" [4]. - Recommendations include sectors benefiting from Hainan's customs closure, such as transportation logistics and tourism, as well as industries driven by major engineering investments [4]. Group 5: Production Limits and Price Stabilization - Comprehensive measures to address "involution" competition are being implemented, with a draft price law seeking public input to regulate market pricing [4]. - The central government has emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition in industries like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [4]. - Recommendations include sectors facing issues with low-price competition and those with improved supply-side expectations, such as steel, coal, chemicals, and pig farming [4].

Group 1 - Changsha's GDP is projected to reach 1.52 trillion in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.0%, making it one of the top six cities in China [3] - The city has the lowest housing price-to-income ratio in the country, with young people facing only one-third of the home-buying pressure compared to major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [3] - Changsha is home to seven major trillion-yuan industrial clusters, with significant contributions from manufacturing, particularly in construction machinery [3] Group 2 - The city attracts around 200,000 young people annually, primarily aged 18-35, due to its affordable living costs and vibrant lifestyle [5] - Changsha's social retail sales are projected to reach 579.7 billion in 2024, ranking it among the top fourteen cities in China [5] - The nightlife and cultural scene in Changsha are thriving, with a strong emphasis on leisure and entertainment [5] Group 3 - Changsha is developing a dual-core model of "hard technology" and "new consumption," with advancements in computing and artificial intelligence [7] - The digital economy in Changsha is expected to reach 500 billion in 2024, establishing it as a new first-tier digital city [7] - The city integrates technology with local culture, enhancing its appeal through innovative culinary experiences and digital content creation [7] Group 4 - The collaboration between Changsha, Zhuzhou, and Xiangtan is creating a robust regional economic engine, with a focus on automotive industry supply chains [9] - The completion of the Xiangluozhou Bridge has established a "half-hour living circle," improving connectivity between the three cities [11] - This regional cooperation is expected to attract over 60 billion in investments through key projects [9][11] Group 5 - Changsha's success is attributed to its ability to retain young talent through affordable housing, a strong manufacturing base, and a vibrant consumer culture [13] - The city has positioned itself as a competitive force in central China, challenging traditional powerhouses like Wuhan and Zhengzhou [13] - Changsha's approach emphasizes a balance between aspiration and practicality for its residents [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the optimistic outlook for China's stock market, highlighting the emergence of new technology trends and business models, a decrease in opportunity costs for stock investments, and improved economic policies that favor investor returns. This creates a favorable environment for thematic investments, particularly in frontier technologies, advanced manufacturing, and structural improvements, with a focus on investment opportunities for the second half of 2025 [1][6][11]. Group 1: Frontier Technologies - Theme 1: AI and Embodied Intelligence - Artificial intelligence is expected to follow a path of "information infrastructure construction," "basic software deployment," "online application explosion," and "restructuring offline industries," with AI becoming a key catalyst for commercialization and increasing demand for computing power [2]. - The application of embodied intelligence is accelerating in fields such as research, education, and healthcare, with a focus on specific robotic products like quadrupedal and exoskeleton robots [2]. - Theme 2: Bioeconomy and Brain-Machine Interfaces - Biotechnology is rapidly advancing, enabling traditional industries to upgrade, with synthetic biology and information crossover technologies opening new spaces in the bioeconomy [3]. - The brain-machine interface industry is in the exploratory phase, with several tech companies attempting breakthroughs in hardware and applications [3]. - Theme 3: 6G Communication - 6G technology is set to revolutionize communication with significant improvements in speed and latency, with research expected to start in 2025 and commercial systems planned for 2030 [4]. Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - Theme 4: Low-altitude Economy and Commercial Space - The low-altitude economy is entering a "manned era," with market size expected to exceed one trillion yuan by 2026, driven by the establishment of non-controlled airspace and operational certifications [7]. - The commercial space sector is anticipated to see significant growth due to the increasing demand for satellite launches and the development of satellite constellations [7]. - Theme 5: Deep-sea Technology - The government has prioritized deep-sea technology, with policies accelerating the industrialization process and a projected marine production value exceeding ten trillion yuan by 2024 [8]. - Theme 6: Self-sufficiency - The semiconductor sector is becoming a focal point in the technology competition, with policies promoting mergers and acquisitions to deepen domestic replacements [9]. Group 3: Structural Improvements - Theme 7: Smart Driving - The penetration of advanced smart driving technologies is accelerating, with significant cost reductions expected in related hardware due to scale effects from companies like BYD [10]. - Theme 8: New Consumption Brands - The consumption recovery is showing a "K-shaped" divergence, with traditional consumption under pressure while new consumption is thriving, driven by digital economy and infrastructure changes [12]. - Theme 9: Price Cycle Products - Some cyclical industries are beginning to reduce capacity, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics leading to price recoveries in related sectors [13]. - Theme 10: Regional Economy - There is an increasing urgency to address regional development imbalances, with accelerated investment in western infrastructure and supportive policies for local industries [14].

Core Insights - Zhejiang is experiencing a significant influx of talent, attracting 557,000 immigrants in 2023 at an average rate of 1,526 people per day, with a notable portion coming from Guizhou, indicating a shift in regional economic dynamics [1][11] - The province's competitive advantages include higher salaries for tech workers, faster loan approvals for small businesses, and better educational opportunities for migrant workers' children compared to Guangdong [1][3][12] Economic Landscape - Zhejiang boasts a high density of market entities, with 1 in 7.8 people being a business owner, and an average of 24,000 new enterprises established daily, significantly outpacing Guangdong [3][4] - The province's private sector contributes 67% of GDP and 87% of employment, highlighting its robust economic foundation [3][4] Innovation and Development - Zhejiang's industries are moving beyond traditional manufacturing, with significant investments in high-tech sectors such as AI and robotics, leading to higher profit margins and advanced production techniques [8][12] - The region is also focusing on infrastructure development, with substantial investments in transportation and digital trade centers to enhance connectivity and economic activity [11][12] Governance and Services - The efficiency of government services in Zhejiang is notable, with talent subsidies processed faster than in other provinces, and a streamlined approach to administrative tasks [12][13] - The average time for residency applications is 1.8 days, significantly quicker than in Guangdong, reflecting a proactive governance model [12] Wealth Distribution - Zhejiang has the highest per capita disposable income for farmers in China, with a low urban-rural income disparity, indicating effective wealth distribution policies [12][13] - The province's fiscal strategy allocates 78% of expenditures to public welfare, creating a cycle of economic growth that benefits both businesses and residents [12][13] Labor Market Dynamics - The influx of workers from other provinces is reshaping the labor market, with a focus on transforming laborers into partners in wealth creation rather than mere employees [14] - The region's approach to skill development and digital economy integration is fostering a more skilled workforce, enhancing overall productivity [14]

Group 1: Stablecoins and Global Currency System - Stablecoins are typically pegged to stable assets like fiat currencies (mainly USD), precious metals, or other cryptocurrencies, providing relative stability in value [1] - The stablecoin market has significantly expanded since 2020, currently valued at nearly $245 billion, driven by advantages in payment settlements, demand from the expanding cryptocurrency market, and geopolitical risks [1][2] - The development of stablecoins essentially extends the dominance of the USD into the cryptocurrency realm, although the ongoing de-globalization of the USD may not be reversed by stablecoin growth [2] Group 2: China's Market Outlook - The "transformation bull" market in China is becoming clearer, with strategic optimism for 2025 driven by reduced marginal impacts from valuation contractions and a shift in investor expectations [3] - Key drivers for this market include a decline in risk-free rates, effective economic policies, and a focus on investor returns, which are crucial for changing risk perceptions among investors [3][4] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as finance, emerging technology, and cyclical consumption, with recommendations for stocks in brokerage, banking, insurance, and new consumer trends [4][5] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed the A-share market since the beginning of the year, with a 19% increase in the Hang Seng Index, driven by sectors like healthcare, technology, and consumer goods [7] - The scarcity of certain assets in the Hong Kong market, particularly those related to AI applications and new consumption trends, is a significant factor in its outperformance [7][8] - Positive factors supporting the Hong Kong market's upward trajectory include fundamental recovery and improved liquidity, with a focus on technology stocks benefiting from accelerated AI applications [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the Chinese stock market is entering a "transformation bull" phase, driven by a clearer understanding of economic conditions and a reduction in the marginal impact of valuation contraction [1][2] - The key drivers of the market include a decline in the risk-free interest rate and a systematic reduction in risk perception, which have historically hindered investor willingness to enter the market [2][3] - The article highlights the importance of timely and reasonable economic policies, as well as reforms in the capital market that focus on investor returns, which are crucial for changing the conservative attitudes of investors towards risk [2][3] Group 2 - Emerging technology is identified as a main investment theme, while cyclical finance is seen as a dark horse opportunity. The article suggests that the real issues in the Chinese economy are not solely in real estate but in broader economic stability and innovation [3] - Recommendations for investment include sectors such as financial services (brokerages, banks, insurance), high-dividend companies (telecom operators, highways, public utilities), and emerging technologies (internet, media, robotics, pharmaceuticals, military) [3] - The article also points to new consumption trends and cyclical recovery in commodities, recommending investments in rare earths, chemicals, retail, and cosmetics, as well as themes like AI, regional economic development, and self-sufficiency in technology [3]