证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 美元债双周报（26 年第 6 周） 弱于大市 景气回升难掩财政忧虑，美债曲线陡峭化博弈加剧 美国 1 月 ISM 数据显示，制造业与服务业景气度同步回升，经济动能明显改 善。制造业 PMI 从 47.9 大幅跃升至 52.6，显著高于预期，重返扩张区 间并创近几年新高，新订单与产出强劲反弹是主要拉动因素，显示企业 补库存与需求修复加快。不过，就业指数仍低于荣枯线，制造业用工恢 复偏慢，叠加物价支付指数回升，反映成本压力再度抬头。服务业方面， PMI 维持在 53.8 的阶段性高位，扩张态势稳健，商业活动表现较好，但 新订单增速放缓，就业几乎停滞于荣枯线附近，显示需求与用工修复并 不同步。同时，价格指数走高，提示服务业通胀压力有所回升。整体而 言，美国经济开年景气度改善明确，但就业恢复偏弱、成本压力上行， 结构性特征依然突出。 市场避险情绪升温，但美债需求并不强劲。在上周市场对美联储换帅导致 的流动性冲击以及 AI 对软件的替代影响的担忧而出现抛售时，美债价 格上涨幅度却相当温和，而且收益率曲线显著趋陡，10 年-2 年期限利 差逼近多年高位。这表明尽管市场存在避险情绪 ...

Group 1 - Long-term bond yields in the UK and France have reached their highest levels in over a decade, driven by increasing concerns over global fiscal conditions [1] - The UK 30-year government bond yield rose nearly 6 basis points to 5.697%, the highest since 1998, while the French 30-year yield increased similarly to 4.513%, the highest since 2009 [1] - The rise in bond yields indicates investor worries about debt levels across various countries, particularly in the UK and France [1] Group 2 - The British pound and euro have depreciated against the US dollar, with the pound falling over 1% to 1.3402, marking a near one-month low against the euro [1] - The European stock market has declined, with the Stoxx 600 index dropping 0.6%, and real estate stocks, sensitive to interest rates, falling nearly 2% [2] - Oil prices have increased due to heightened concerns over supply disruptions amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with Brent crude rising 1.5% to $69.17 per barrel [2] Group 3 - Gold prices reached a historic high of $3,508.5 per ounce, reflecting a broader trend of rising long-term bond yields and investor aversion to duration risk [1] - Silver prices also surged to a 14-year high, indicating a strong demand for precious metals amid market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's long-term government bond yields are rising sharply, approaching historical highs, driven by concerns over fiscal policy ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [1] Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - The 30-year government bond yield increased by 10.5 basis points to 3.145%, nearing the historical peak of 3.185% set in May [1] - The 20-year bond yield rose by 12 basis points to 2.620%, the highest level since October 2000 [1] - The 10-year bond yield increased by 7 basis points, while the 40-year bond yield rose by 9 basis points to 3.415% [1] Group 2: Political Context - The upcoming Senate elections on July 20 have become a focal point, with local media polls indicating that the ruling coalition may lose its majority [1] - Politicians are promising increased government spending and tax cuts to attract voters, which could exacerbate the national debt burden [1] - Miki Den, a senior interest rate strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Securities, noted that the bond market is taking measures to reduce risk ahead of the elections [1]